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| Russian Envoy Says Syrian Leader Is Losing Control | Russian Envoy Says Syrian Leader Is Losing Control |
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| MOSCOW — Russia’s top Middle East diplomat and the leader of NATO offered dark and strikingly similar assessments of the embattled Syrian president’s future on Thursday, asserting that he was losing control of the country after a nearly two-year conflict that has taken 40,000 lives and has threatened to destabilize the Middle East. | |
| The bleak appraisals — particularly from Russia, a steadfast strategic Syrian ally — amounted to a new level of pressure on the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, who has been resorting to increasingly desperate military measures, including the use of Scud ballistic missiles, to contain an armed insurgency that has encroached on the capital, Damascus. | The bleak appraisals — particularly from Russia, a steadfast strategic Syrian ally — amounted to a new level of pressure on the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, who has been resorting to increasingly desperate military measures, including the use of Scud ballistic missiles, to contain an armed insurgency that has encroached on the capital, Damascus. |
| The Russian diplomat, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, acknowledged that Mr. Assad’s forces could be defeated by rebels, whom the Syrian leader has repeatedly dismissed as ragtag foreign-backed terrorists with no popular support. | The Russian diplomat, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, acknowledged that Mr. Assad’s forces could be defeated by rebels, whom the Syrian leader has repeatedly dismissed as ragtag foreign-backed terrorists with no popular support. |
| “Unfortunately, it is impossible to exclude a victory of the Syrian opposition,” said Mr. Bogdanov — the clearest indication to date that Russia believed that Mr. Assad could lose. | “Unfortunately, it is impossible to exclude a victory of the Syrian opposition,” said Mr. Bogdanov — the clearest indication to date that Russia believed that Mr. Assad could lose. |
| Mr. Bogdanov’s remarks, reported by Russia’s Interfax news service, came as the secretary general of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, told reporters in Brussels that Mr. Assad’s use of ballistic missiles, which Western officials monitoring the Syrian conflict reported on Wednesday — and which Syria has denied — reflected his “utter disregard” for Syrian lives. Mr. Rasmussen also predicted the demise of Mr. Assad’s government. | Mr. Bogdanov’s remarks, reported by Russia’s Interfax news service, came as the secretary general of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, told reporters in Brussels that Mr. Assad’s use of ballistic missiles, which Western officials monitoring the Syrian conflict reported on Wednesday — and which Syria has denied — reflected his “utter disregard” for Syrian lives. Mr. Rasmussen also predicted the demise of Mr. Assad’s government. |
| “I think the regime in Damascus is approaching collapse,” he told reporters after a meeting with the Dutch prime minister at NATO headquarters. “I think now it is only a question of time.” | |
| While the leaders of NATO member states have made similar predictions before, the assertion by Mr. Rasmussen, the leader of the Western military alliance, reinforced a growing consensus that Mr. Assad’s options for remaining in power had been all but exhausted — a view now apparently shared by Russia. | |
| Throughout the Syria crisis, as it has grown from peaceful protests in March 2011 to engulf the country in armed conflict, Russia has acted as Syria’s principal international shield, protecting Mr. Assad diplomatically from Western and Arab attempts to oust him and holding out the possibility of his staying in power during a transition. | Throughout the Syria crisis, as it has grown from peaceful protests in March 2011 to engulf the country in armed conflict, Russia has acted as Syria’s principal international shield, protecting Mr. Assad diplomatically from Western and Arab attempts to oust him and holding out the possibility of his staying in power during a transition. |
| Only in recent days has Russia’s view seemed to shift, while Mr. Assad’s foes, grouped in a newly minted and still uncertain coalition, have garnered ever broader international support as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people. | Only in recent days has Russia’s view seemed to shift, while Mr. Assad’s foes, grouped in a newly minted and still uncertain coalition, have garnered ever broader international support as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people. |
| “We must look squarely at the facts, and the trend now suggests that the regime and the government in Syria are losing more and more control and more and more territory,” Mr. Bogdanov said in remarks to Russia’s Public Chamber, a Kremlin advisory group, according to Interfax. | “We must look squarely at the facts, and the trend now suggests that the regime and the government in Syria are losing more and more control and more and more territory,” Mr. Bogdanov said in remarks to Russia’s Public Chamber, a Kremlin advisory group, according to Interfax. |
| Russia, he said, was preparing to evacuate its citizens — a complex task, since for decades, Russian women have married Syrian men sent to study in Russia and returned to Syria with them to raise families. | Russia, he said, was preparing to evacuate its citizens — a complex task, since for decades, Russian women have married Syrian men sent to study in Russia and returned to Syria with them to raise families. |
| It was the first time an official at Mr. Bogdanov’s level had announced plans for an evacuation, which sent a message to the Syrian government that Russia no longer held out hope that the government could prevail. He said Russia had a plan to withdraw its personnel from its embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, but that was s not yet necessary. Russia’s press attaché in Damascus confirmed this, telling Interfax that there was “no sharp deterioration” in conditions there. | It was the first time an official at Mr. Bogdanov’s level had announced plans for an evacuation, which sent a message to the Syrian government that Russia no longer held out hope that the government could prevail. He said Russia had a plan to withdraw its personnel from its embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, but that was s not yet necessary. Russia’s press attaché in Damascus confirmed this, telling Interfax that there was “no sharp deterioration” in conditions there. |
| Mr. Bogdanov offered a dark view of how the conflict would unfold from this point, saying that it took two years for the rebels to control 60 percent of Syria’s territory, and another year and a half will pass before they control the rest. | |
| “If up until now 40,000 people have died, then from this point forward it will be crueler, and you will lose dozens or many hundreds of thousands of people,” he said. “If you accept this price to topple the president, what can we do? We of course consider this totally unacceptable.” | “If up until now 40,000 people have died, then from this point forward it will be crueler, and you will lose dozens or many hundreds of thousands of people,” he said. “If you accept this price to topple the president, what can we do? We of course consider this totally unacceptable.” |
| As the Russian official spoke, fresh evidence of the intensity of the battle emerged. During the civil war, Moscow has been the principal arms supplier for the Damascus government, as it has been for decades. Obama administration and NATO officials said on Wednesday that Syrian government forces had resorted to firing Scud missiles at rebel fighters as the government struggled to slow the momentum of the insurgency. | As the Russian official spoke, fresh evidence of the intensity of the battle emerged. During the civil war, Moscow has been the principal arms supplier for the Damascus government, as it has been for decades. Obama administration and NATO officials said on Wednesday that Syrian government forces had resorted to firing Scud missiles at rebel fighters as the government struggled to slow the momentum of the insurgency. |
| The officials said that over the last week, Mr. Assad’s forces for the first time had fired at least six Soviet-designed Scuds in the latest bid to push back rebels who have consistently chipped away at the government’s military superiority. Syria’s Foreign Ministry denied the assertion on Thursday, saying in a statement that missiles “were not used in confronting the terrorist groups.” | The officials said that over the last week, Mr. Assad’s forces for the first time had fired at least six Soviet-designed Scuds in the latest bid to push back rebels who have consistently chipped away at the government’s military superiority. Syria’s Foreign Ministry denied the assertion on Thursday, saying in a statement that missiles “were not used in confronting the terrorist groups.” |
| Syrian state media and antigovernment activists reported that at least 16 people had been killed when a car bomb exploded near a school in the town of Qatana, southwest of the capital, on Thursday. | Syrian state media and antigovernment activists reported that at least 16 people had been killed when a car bomb exploded near a school in the town of Qatana, southwest of the capital, on Thursday. |
| The bomb wounded more than 20 people, leaving some in critical condition, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is based in Britain and tracks the conflict through a network of activists. Government forces still hold sway in Qatana, a town with a Sunni Muslim majority and Christian minority, Agence France-Presse reported. | The bomb wounded more than 20 people, leaving some in critical condition, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is based in Britain and tracks the conflict through a network of activists. Government forces still hold sway in Qatana, a town with a Sunni Muslim majority and Christian minority, Agence France-Presse reported. |
| The number of car bombs in residential areas appears to have increased in recent weeks, hitting neighborhoods perceived as housing many government supporters as well as others considered sympathetic to the uprising. | The number of car bombs in residential areas appears to have increased in recent weeks, hitting neighborhoods perceived as housing many government supporters as well as others considered sympathetic to the uprising. |
| Agence France-Presse also reported that Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim al-Shaar was wounded in a bomb attack on his ministry on Wednesday. But he was not seriously hurt, the agency said, quoting an unidentified security source who said the bombing was believed to have been carried out by a saboteur because only official vehicles can approach the building. | Agence France-Presse also reported that Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim al-Shaar was wounded in a bomb attack on his ministry on Wednesday. But he was not seriously hurt, the agency said, quoting an unidentified security source who said the bombing was believed to have been carried out by a saboteur because only official vehicles can approach the building. |
| Mr. Shaar was injured in an earlier bombing on July 18 that killed four senior security officials at a Damascus headquarters. | Mr. Shaar was injured in an earlier bombing on July 18 that killed four senior security officials at a Damascus headquarters. |
| Russia is eager to protect its strategic interests in Syria, including a naval facility at the port of Tartus, and has been meeting frequently with opposition delegations, presumably laying the groundwork for a possible transition. In his remarks to the Public Chamber, Mr. Bogdanov said he believed that half the Russian citizens living in Syria supported the rebels. | Russia is eager to protect its strategic interests in Syria, including a naval facility at the port of Tartus, and has been meeting frequently with opposition delegations, presumably laying the groundwork for a possible transition. In his remarks to the Public Chamber, Mr. Bogdanov said he believed that half the Russian citizens living in Syria supported the rebels. |
| “Moreover, some of the people coming here as part of opposition coalitions have Russian passports,” he said, according to Interfax. | “Moreover, some of the people coming here as part of opposition coalitions have Russian passports,” he said, according to Interfax. |
| Russia has cast its stance on Syria as a principled stand against Western-led intervention — a passionate topic for President Vladimir V. Putin, who believes that Russia was deceived into supporting a no-fly zone in Libya that ultimately led to a military campaign that overthrew Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. In recent days, Moscow has been adamant that its fundamental position has not changed. | Russia has cast its stance on Syria as a principled stand against Western-led intervention — a passionate topic for President Vladimir V. Putin, who believes that Russia was deceived into supporting a no-fly zone in Libya that ultimately led to a military campaign that overthrew Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. In recent days, Moscow has been adamant that its fundamental position has not changed. |
| For many months, the Russian authorities have resisted Western pressure to persuade Mr. Assad to step down. Though Russia has said it supports the creation of a transitional government, it has been at odds with the West on whether Mr. Assad — and his ally Iran — would have a voice in it. | For many months, the Russian authorities have resisted Western pressure to persuade Mr. Assad to step down. Though Russia has said it supports the creation of a transitional government, it has been at odds with the West on whether Mr. Assad — and his ally Iran — would have a voice in it. |
| Mr. Bogdanov said on Thursday that Russia’s stance has been deliberately distorted in the Western media, an effort “intended to weaken our influence” in the Middle East, and that third-party governments have strengthened rebel forces by providing weapons. | Mr. Bogdanov said on Thursday that Russia’s stance has been deliberately distorted in the Western media, an effort “intended to weaken our influence” in the Middle East, and that third-party governments have strengthened rebel forces by providing weapons. |
| “Massive supply of modern armaments have pushed the Syrian rebels to stake their hopes on force,” leading to “an acceleration of the spiral of violence,” he said. | “Massive supply of modern armaments have pushed the Syrian rebels to stake their hopes on force,” leading to “an acceleration of the spiral of violence,” he said. |
| Leonid Medvedko, a political analyst who covered Syria for Soviet news services, said officials had so far been reluctant to declare an evacuation of Russian citizens “because there are technical questions, political questions — because it will mean we are fully giving up Syria.” | Leonid Medvedko, a political analyst who covered Syria for Soviet news services, said officials had so far been reluctant to declare an evacuation of Russian citizens “because there are technical questions, political questions — because it will mean we are fully giving up Syria.” |
| “It is a humanitarian step, but each humanitarian step has a political meaning,” he said. | “It is a humanitarian step, but each humanitarian step has a political meaning,” he said. |
| From the first, Russia has taken the view that Mr. Assad’s departure would usher in a long and chaotic process of fragmentation in Syria, but most experts this week said they were braced for the beginning of that process. Mr. Medvedko, the former journalist, said he expected Syria to split into four parts that would be home to distinct ethnic and religious groups, much as Yugoslavia did in the 1990s. | From the first, Russia has taken the view that Mr. Assad’s departure would usher in a long and chaotic process of fragmentation in Syria, but most experts this week said they were braced for the beginning of that process. Mr. Medvedko, the former journalist, said he expected Syria to split into four parts that would be home to distinct ethnic and religious groups, much as Yugoslavia did in the 1990s. |
| Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs and head of an influential policy group, said that even if Mr. Assad left the country, his countrymen would keep fighting. | Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs and head of an influential policy group, said that even if Mr. Assad left the country, his countrymen would keep fighting. |
| “The prevailing view is that it will be complete and desperate chaos,” said Mr. Lukyanov. “To remove Assad will not mean settlement of the Syrian conflict.” | “The prevailing view is that it will be complete and desperate chaos,” said Mr. Lukyanov. “To remove Assad will not mean settlement of the Syrian conflict.” |
| Referring to the minority sect that rules Syria, he continued: “You can remove him — I don’t know in which way — but what will you do to 300,000 Alawites? They will be fighting for their lives, not for power anymore .” | Referring to the minority sect that rules Syria, he continued: “You can remove him — I don’t know in which way — but what will you do to 300,000 Alawites? They will be fighting for their lives, not for power anymore .” |
Ellen Barry reported from Moscow, and Rick Gladstone from New York. Alan Cowell contributed reporting from London and Anne Barnard from Beirut, Lebanon. | Ellen Barry reported from Moscow, and Rick Gladstone from New York. Alan Cowell contributed reporting from London and Anne Barnard from Beirut, Lebanon. |