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| Japan's conservatives on cusp of election victory | Japan's conservatives on cusp of election victory |
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| Three years after it was kicked out of office in an election that was supposed to herald a new direction for the country, Japan's biggest conservative party is on the cusp of a return to power. | Three years after it was kicked out of office in an election that was supposed to herald a new direction for the country, Japan's biggest conservative party is on the cusp of a return to power. |
| The Liberal Democratic party [LDP], which has governed almost for much of the postwar era, is expected to win Sunday's election comfortably, led by a man whose first term as prime minister ended five years ago. | The Liberal Democratic party [LDP], which has governed almost for much of the postwar era, is expected to win Sunday's election comfortably, led by a man whose first term as prime minister ended five years ago. |
| The likely winner, Shinzo Abe, has been helped by widespread dissatisfaction with the current prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, whose Democratic party of Japan [DPJ] won a landslide in 2009 promising to take power out of the hands of bureaucrats, divert money from wasteful public works to families and welfare, and pursue a more independent foreign policy after decades of dependence on the US. | The likely winner, Shinzo Abe, has been helped by widespread dissatisfaction with the current prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, whose Democratic party of Japan [DPJ] won a landslide in 2009 promising to take power out of the hands of bureaucrats, divert money from wasteful public works to families and welfare, and pursue a more independent foreign policy after decades of dependence on the US. |
| Anger at the DPJ's failure to deliver has been matched by a swing to the right that has benefited Abe, one of the Japan's most vocal conservatives. | Anger at the DPJ's failure to deliver has been matched by a swing to the right that has benefited Abe, one of the Japan's most vocal conservatives. |
| The country's hawks have been given ample ammunition with which to attack Noda, the third DPJ leader in as many years. | The country's hawks have been given ample ammunition with which to attack Noda, the third DPJ leader in as many years. |
| Abe dismissed as weak-kneed Noda's response to Chinese provocations over the Senkaku dispute, which took another troubling turn on Thursday after a Chinese plane flew over the islands, known as the Diaoyu in China. North Korea's successful rocket launch this week will have only boosted Abe's credentials as a hardliner against the regime in Pyongyang. | Abe dismissed as weak-kneed Noda's response to Chinese provocations over the Senkaku dispute, which took another troubling turn on Thursday after a Chinese plane flew over the islands, known as the Diaoyu in China. North Korea's successful rocket launch this week will have only boosted Abe's credentials as a hardliner against the regime in Pyongyang. |
| Opinion polls suggest he will pull off what had seemed impossible only weeks ago – gaining enough lower house seats with its traditional ally, New Komeito, to overrule the upper house, a regular source of instability for the past five years. | Opinion polls suggest he will pull off what had seemed impossible only weeks ago – gaining enough lower house seats with its traditional ally, New Komeito, to overrule the upper house, a regular source of instability for the past five years. |
| Abe's failure to win a clear majority would trigger a search for a second coalition partner among a myriad of minor parties. The candidates include the Japan Restoration party, a new far-right group led by the outspoken former governor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishihara and his deputy, Osaka's mayor, Toru Hashimoto. | Abe's failure to win a clear majority would trigger a search for a second coalition partner among a myriad of minor parties. The candidates include the Japan Restoration party, a new far-right group led by the outspoken former governor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishihara and his deputy, Osaka's mayor, Toru Hashimoto. |
| In the early days of the campaign, Abe attempted to match Ishihara's nationalist rhetoric. The LDP leader hinted he would "revise" a previous prime minister's apology for Japan's wartime conduct. He has questioned claims that Japan had used tens of thousands of Asian women as sex slaves during the war and has said he regretted visiting Yasukuni – a war shrine revered by nationalists – when he last led Japan for a year from 2006. | In the early days of the campaign, Abe attempted to match Ishihara's nationalist rhetoric. The LDP leader hinted he would "revise" a previous prime minister's apology for Japan's wartime conduct. He has questioned claims that Japan had used tens of thousands of Asian women as sex slaves during the war and has said he regretted visiting Yasukuni – a war shrine revered by nationalists – when he last led Japan for a year from 2006. |
| Abe has since dropped references to the war, and many believe he will soften his stance on China once in office. "We don't want to do anything to further worsen the current state of affairs," Yoshitaka Shindo, an MP in Abe's party, told Reuters. "We need to calm the situation down and smooth over our relations as Japan doesn't want to run into any military collision with any neighbouring country." | Abe has since dropped references to the war, and many believe he will soften his stance on China once in office. "We don't want to do anything to further worsen the current state of affairs," Yoshitaka Shindo, an MP in Abe's party, told Reuters. "We need to calm the situation down and smooth over our relations as Japan doesn't want to run into any military collision with any neighbouring country." |
| Some opinion polls have put the Restoration party in second place ahead of the DPJ, which could be reduced to fewer than 70 seats. Even if Ishihara's band of ultra-conservatives fails to win enough seats to force coalition talks, his party's rapid rise is evidence of Japan's rightward shift. | Some opinion polls have put the Restoration party in second place ahead of the DPJ, which could be reduced to fewer than 70 seats. Even if Ishihara's band of ultra-conservatives fails to win enough seats to force coalition talks, his party's rapid rise is evidence of Japan's rightward shift. |
| With or without Ishihara, Abe will find it hard to resist that trend, according to Koichi Nakano, a professor at Sophia University in Tokyo. "This time around, Abe is more reliant on his rightwing backers who formed a part of the broader coalition that helped him get elected as the LDP chief | With or without Ishihara, Abe will find it hard to resist that trend, according to Koichi Nakano, a professor at Sophia University in Tokyo. "This time around, Abe is more reliant on his rightwing backers who formed a part of the broader coalition that helped him get elected as the LDP chief |
| "It seems that his voters have also moved to the right and expect a hardened stance." | "It seems that his voters have also moved to the right and expect a hardened stance." |
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