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| Japanese conservatives stage dramatic electoral comeback | Japanese conservatives stage dramatic electoral comeback |
| (12 days later) | |
| Japan's main conservative party is on course for a resounding victory in Sunday's election, with exit polls indicating it could take control of two-thirds of the lower house, consigning the centre-left government to a crushing defeat. | Japan's main conservative party is on course for a resounding victory in Sunday's election, with exit polls indicating it could take control of two-thirds of the lower house, consigning the centre-left government to a crushing defeat. |
| The Liberal Democratic party (LDP), ousted from office just three years ago, has staged a dramatic comeback under its leader, Shinzo Abe, who as head of the largest party is assured of becoming prime minister. | The Liberal Democratic party (LDP), ousted from office just three years ago, has staged a dramatic comeback under its leader, Shinzo Abe, who as head of the largest party is assured of becoming prime minister. |
| Exit polls showed the LDP would win 296 seats in the 480-seat lower house, while its longtime ally, New Komeito, was on course to win 32 seats. Combined, the tally would give the parties the "super-majority" they need to take total control of both houses of parliament and end years of policy deadlock and instability. | Exit polls showed the LDP would win 296 seats in the 480-seat lower house, while its longtime ally, New Komeito, was on course to win 32 seats. Combined, the tally would give the parties the "super-majority" they need to take total control of both houses of parliament and end years of policy deadlock and instability. |
| Abe, who resigned as prime minister in 2007 after a year blighted by scandals involving cabinet ministers, has promised to take a tougher stance towards China over the Senkaku islands, give Japan's armed forces a bigger international role and retain nuclear power, despite growing opposition to atomic energy in the wake of last year's Fukushima Daiichi meltdown. | Abe, who resigned as prime minister in 2007 after a year blighted by scandals involving cabinet ministers, has promised to take a tougher stance towards China over the Senkaku islands, give Japan's armed forces a bigger international role and retain nuclear power, despite growing opposition to atomic energy in the wake of last year's Fukushima Daiichi meltdown. |
| On the economy – the single biggest issue of the campaign – Abe has pledged to return to high spending on public works and ease monetary policy to boost growth. The Japanese economy has been beset by stagnation and deflation for two decades and recently entered its fourth recession since 2000. | On the economy – the single biggest issue of the campaign – Abe has pledged to return to high spending on public works and ease monetary policy to boost growth. The Japanese economy has been beset by stagnation and deflation for two decades and recently entered its fourth recession since 2000. |
| The governing Democratic party of Japan [DPJ] is expected to suffer a heavy defeat, three years after it ended the LDP's near-monopoly on power with a landslide victory at the last election. | The governing Democratic party of Japan [DPJ] is expected to suffer a heavy defeat, three years after it ended the LDP's near-monopoly on power with a landslide victory at the last election. |
| Exit polls said the DPJ could be reduced to fewer than 70 seats. Party officials interviewed by TV networks hinted that its leader, Yoshihiko Noda, would have to take responsibility for its disastrous showing and resign immediately. | Exit polls said the DPJ could be reduced to fewer than 70 seats. Party officials interviewed by TV networks hinted that its leader, Yoshihiko Noda, would have to take responsibility for its disastrous showing and resign immediately. |
| The election also saw the emergence of a third force in the form of the Japan Restoration party, a far-right group led by the outspoken former governor of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara. It was predicted to win around 46 seats. At one point polls suggested the Restoration party could overtake the DPJ as the country's second-biggest party and act as powerbroker in a hung parliament. That level of influence now looks unlikely, however. | The election also saw the emergence of a third force in the form of the Japan Restoration party, a far-right group led by the outspoken former governor of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara. It was predicted to win around 46 seats. At one point polls suggested the Restoration party could overtake the DPJ as the country's second-biggest party and act as powerbroker in a hung parliament. That level of influence now looks unlikely, however. |
| Turnout was sluggish at just over 27% by mid-afternoon, down 7.8 percentage points from 2009, according to government data. | Turnout was sluggish at just over 27% by mid-afternoon, down 7.8 percentage points from 2009, according to government data. |
| Abe, 58, will become Japan's seventh prime minister in just over six years. Noda's 11th-hour plea to reject the LDP's "old-style politics" failed to sway voters. | Abe, 58, will become Japan's seventh prime minister in just over six years. Noda's 11th-hour plea to reject the LDP's "old-style politics" failed to sway voters. |
| The LDP, which governed for all but 11 months between 1955 and 2009, has capitalised on popular anger over the DPJ's failure to deliver on a promise to replace pork-barrel politics with a focus on families, welfare and healthcare. | The LDP, which governed for all but 11 months between 1955 and 2009, has capitalised on popular anger over the DPJ's failure to deliver on a promise to replace pork-barrel politics with a focus on families, welfare and healthcare. |
| Many voters feel the DPJ has dithered over the reconstruction of the region devastated by last year's earthquake and tsunami. And they associate Noda with an unpopular plan to double the consumption (sales) tax to 10%, a measure that passed only with the support of Abe's party. | Many voters feel the DPJ has dithered over the reconstruction of the region devastated by last year's earthquake and tsunami. And they associate Noda with an unpopular plan to double the consumption (sales) tax to 10%, a measure that passed only with the support of Abe's party. |
| But there was little enthusiasm outside polling stations for the LDP and Abe, the grandson of a former prime minister who holds revisionist views on Japan's wartime conduct and supports a more active overseas role for Japan's armed forces. | But there was little enthusiasm outside polling stations for the LDP and Abe, the grandson of a former prime minister who holds revisionist views on Japan's wartime conduct and supports a more active overseas role for Japan's armed forces. |
| Instead, uncertainty over the economy and Japan's response to the rise of China appears to have sent voters reaching for the familiar – big spending on public works to boost growth, and close security ties with the US to counter the perceived threat from China. | Instead, uncertainty over the economy and Japan's response to the rise of China appears to have sent voters reaching for the familiar – big spending on public works to boost growth, and close security ties with the US to counter the perceived threat from China. |
| "The Democrats are out because they have been unable to implement their policy manifesto and are divided internally. But that doesn't mean I support the LDP," said Yosuke Matsumoto, 33. "Nothing will change under them." | "The Democrats are out because they have been unable to implement their policy manifesto and are divided internally. But that doesn't mean I support the LDP," said Yosuke Matsumoto, 33. "Nothing will change under them." |
| Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University, said the election was about punishing the DPJ, which won by a landslide in 2009. "It seems to me that people are driven by nostalgia, as they seem to want to bring the LDP back to power because they lack better alternatives," he told Reuters. | Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University, said the election was about punishing the DPJ, which won by a landslide in 2009. "It seems to me that people are driven by nostalgia, as they seem to want to bring the LDP back to power because they lack better alternatives," he told Reuters. |
| Voters, many of whom said they were undecided going into the election, had no fewer than 12 parties to choose from. Of the 480 seats in Japan's lower house, 300 are elected from single-seat districts and the remaining 180 through proportional representation in 11 regional blocs. | Voters, many of whom said they were undecided going into the election, had no fewer than 12 parties to choose from. Of the 480 seats in Japan's lower house, 300 are elected from single-seat districts and the remaining 180 through proportional representation in 11 regional blocs. |
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