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Euroscepticism growing among voters, Guardian/ICM poll finds | Euroscepticism growing among voters, Guardian/ICM poll finds |
(4 months later) | |
The public mood of Euroscepticism is hardening, according to an exclusive Guardian/ICM poll that finds 51% of respondents would vote to take Britain out of the EU, against just 40% who say they would vote to stay in. | The public mood of Euroscepticism is hardening, according to an exclusive Guardian/ICM poll that finds 51% of respondents would vote to take Britain out of the EU, against just 40% who say they would vote to stay in. |
The news comes as the prime minister prepares to give a widely anticipated speech on Britain's relationship with the EU in the new year. | The news comes as the prime minister prepares to give a widely anticipated speech on Britain's relationship with the EU in the new year. |
The last time ICM asked the same question, in autumn 2011, opinion was already leaning in the anti-European direction, by 49% against 40%, but a slight hardening of opinion since that time means that anti-EU feeling is now just in the majority. | The last time ICM asked the same question, in autumn 2011, opinion was already leaning in the anti-European direction, by 49% against 40%, but a slight hardening of opinion since that time means that anti-EU feeling is now just in the majority. |
This marks a turnaround from similar polls conducted in the earliest years of this century. When ICM asked a slightly differently worded question in May 2001, the public indicated that it wanted Britain to remain a member of Europe by 68% to 19%. | This marks a turnaround from similar polls conducted in the earliest years of this century. When ICM asked a slightly differently worded question in May 2001, the public indicated that it wanted Britain to remain a member of Europe by 68% to 19%. |
Even worse news for the pro-Europeans emerges when respondents were asked about how definite they were in their view. Fully 36% say they would definitely vote to pull Britain out, against just 22% who definitely want to stay in. That compares with 18% who say they would probably want to stay in, and 15% who indicate that they would probably want to get out. | Even worse news for the pro-Europeans emerges when respondents were asked about how definite they were in their view. Fully 36% say they would definitely vote to pull Britain out, against just 22% who definitely want to stay in. That compares with 18% who say they would probably want to stay in, and 15% who indicate that they would probably want to get out. |
The deteriorating standing of the European Union emerges at the end of a year in which it has won the Nobel peace prize for its success in bringing peace to a continent, but also – and perhaps more significantly – a year which has been marked by the crisis of the single currency moving from an acute to a chronic phase. | The deteriorating standing of the European Union emerges at the end of a year in which it has won the Nobel peace prize for its success in bringing peace to a continent, but also – and perhaps more significantly – a year which has been marked by the crisis of the single currency moving from an acute to a chronic phase. |
The anti-European mood seizing large parts of the electorate was reaffirmed by other questions in the same survey. When voters were asked to provide a "school report grade" for the work of various institutions, the EU was awarded a D+, somewhat worse than the C- average mark awarded to both David Cameron and Ed Miliband. The poll also affirmed that support for the anti-European party Ukip was running at 7% for a second month in a row, a record high in the long-running Guardian/ICM series. | The anti-European mood seizing large parts of the electorate was reaffirmed by other questions in the same survey. When voters were asked to provide a "school report grade" for the work of various institutions, the EU was awarded a D+, somewhat worse than the C- average mark awarded to both David Cameron and Ed Miliband. The poll also affirmed that support for the anti-European party Ukip was running at 7% for a second month in a row, a record high in the long-running Guardian/ICM series. |
There is a recognisable split on partisan lines, but it is not quite as marked as the very different language about Europe used by the three party leaders might suggest. | There is a recognisable split on partisan lines, but it is not quite as marked as the very different language about Europe used by the three party leaders might suggest. |
Fifty-seven percent of Tories want to pull Britain out, compared with 44% of Labour supporters and 34% of Lib Dems. But Cameron may be interested to learn than only 41% of his party's supporters are definitely committed to pulling Britain out, leaving a majority of Conservatives who retain a more equivocal or pro-European position. | Fifty-seven percent of Tories want to pull Britain out, compared with 44% of Labour supporters and 34% of Lib Dems. But Cameron may be interested to learn than only 41% of his party's supporters are definitely committed to pulling Britain out, leaving a majority of Conservatives who retain a more equivocal or pro-European position. |
The hardcore "definitely vote to leave" vote is stronger among men, 40% of whom are in this camp, than among women, among whom only 32% take this view. There is a sharp age gradient in Euroscepticism, too; 49% of pensioners aged 65+ are in this hardline camp, compared with just 16% of the youngest voters, aged 18 to 24. | The hardcore "definitely vote to leave" vote is stronger among men, 40% of whom are in this camp, than among women, among whom only 32% take this view. There is a sharp age gradient in Euroscepticism, too; 49% of pensioners aged 65+ are in this hardline camp, compared with just 16% of the youngest voters, aged 18 to 24. |
There is a strong anti-European contingent across the regions and social classes, although some signs that hostility to Brussels is more marked in England and less marked among professionals. | There is a strong anti-European contingent across the regions and social classes, although some signs that hostility to Brussels is more marked in England and less marked among professionals. |
Only 32% of voters in the top AB social definitely want to quit Europe, compared with 45% of the skilled manual workers group, classified as C2. Whereas as in England 38% are in this hardline camp, in Scotland and Wales the respective figures are just 27% and 26%. | Only 32% of voters in the top AB social definitely want to quit Europe, compared with 45% of the skilled manual workers group, classified as C2. Whereas as in England 38% are in this hardline camp, in Scotland and Wales the respective figures are just 27% and 26%. |
• ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 19-23rd December 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. | • ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 19-23rd December 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. |
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