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| Turkish talks offer hope of peace with Kurdish militants | Turkish talks offer hope of peace with Kurdish militants |
| (4 months later) | |
| If you were looking for some new year cheer, you could do worse than look toward Turkey, with confirmation this weekend that talks between Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government and Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK), are continuing and that the focus of the negotiations was getting the movement to lay down its arms. | If you were looking for some new year cheer, you could do worse than look toward Turkey, with confirmation this weekend that talks between Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government and Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK), are continuing and that the focus of the negotiations was getting the movement to lay down its arms. |
| Any glimmer of hope for an end to an insurgency that has cost at least 40,000 lives is to be welcomed. Especially since the last 18 months have witnessed a surge in violence the like of which has not been seen since Ocalan was seized by Turkish special forces in 1999. | Any glimmer of hope for an end to an insurgency that has cost at least 40,000 lives is to be welcomed. Especially since the last 18 months have witnessed a surge in violence the like of which has not been seen since Ocalan was seized by Turkish special forces in 1999. |
| But at least two questions hang over the discussions. The first is the extent of Ocalan's authority. When the Guardian interviewed him in a secret hideout near Rome just weeks before his capture in Nairobi, he was the PKK's undisputed leader. Ever since, he has been locked away on an island in the Sea of Marmara. His lawyers say he has no access to a telephone. | But at least two questions hang over the discussions. The first is the extent of Ocalan's authority. When the Guardian interviewed him in a secret hideout near Rome just weeks before his capture in Nairobi, he was the PKK's undisputed leader. Ever since, he has been locked away on an island in the Sea of Marmara. His lawyers say he has no access to a telephone. |
| How much does he understand of the sweeping changes in the PKK and its sister organisations over the last 14 years? And, even were he to reach an agreement with the government, could he impose it on the men in Qandil, the PKK fighters' mountain fastness in northern Iraq? | How much does he understand of the sweeping changes in the PKK and its sister organisations over the last 14 years? And, even were he to reach an agreement with the government, could he impose it on the men in Qandil, the PKK fighters' mountain fastness in northern Iraq? |
| Writing in the daily Zaman in November, political analyst Emre Uslu judged Ocalan's clout with the PKK leadership in Qandil and the People's Defence Forces (HPG) – the military wing of the PKK – to be minimal. Only if the PKK's jailed founder could wring concessions from the government could he reimpose his authority on the organisation, Uslu suggested. | Writing in the daily Zaman in November, political analyst Emre Uslu judged Ocalan's clout with the PKK leadership in Qandil and the People's Defence Forces (HPG) – the military wing of the PKK – to be minimal. Only if the PKK's jailed founder could wring concessions from the government could he reimpose his authority on the organisation, Uslu suggested. |
| Later that month, however, Ocalan gave a convincing demonstration of his ability to command the PKK's imprisoned militants. Hundreds of their number were on hunger strike, demanding, among other things, improved prison conditions. Ocalan sent a message through his brother that the strike should be halted, and he was instantly obeyed. | Later that month, however, Ocalan gave a convincing demonstration of his ability to command the PKK's imprisoned militants. Hundreds of their number were on hunger strike, demanding, among other things, improved prison conditions. Ocalan sent a message through his brother that the strike should be halted, and he was instantly obeyed. |
| Nihat Ali Ozcan, a lecturer at the TOBB University of Economics and Technology in Ankara, who served as an officer in the Turkish armed forces and wrote a book on the PKK, is convinced Ocalan retains "100% control". Ozcan stresses instead the other question hanging over the talks: is there is any common ground on which to base them? | Nihat Ali Ozcan, a lecturer at the TOBB University of Economics and Technology in Ankara, who served as an officer in the Turkish armed forces and wrote a book on the PKK, is convinced Ocalan retains "100% control". Ozcan stresses instead the other question hanging over the talks: is there is any common ground on which to base them? |
| "Erdogan's aim is to manage the problem and gain time, whereas Ocalan wants political concessions," he said. | "Erdogan's aim is to manage the problem and gain time, whereas Ocalan wants political concessions," he said. |
| The Turkish prime minister has good reason to be seen talking to the PKK. Over the next two years, his Justice and Development party (AK) faces local and presidential elections. Its position is weaker than it was when he was re-elected in 2011. And in the south-east of the country it is in direct competition for votes with Kurdish movements sympathetic to the PKK. | The Turkish prime minister has good reason to be seen talking to the PKK. Over the next two years, his Justice and Development party (AK) faces local and presidential elections. Its position is weaker than it was when he was re-elected in 2011. And in the south-east of the country it is in direct competition for votes with Kurdish movements sympathetic to the PKK. |
| Since coming to power, Erdogan has granted unprecedented freedoms to Kurds. They now have a Kurdish-language television station and the chance to learn Kurdish in schools. | Since coming to power, Erdogan has granted unprecedented freedoms to Kurds. They now have a Kurdish-language television station and the chance to learn Kurdish in schools. |
| But in an interview this month, one of the three PKK leaders at earlier talks in Oslo complained that the government's negotiators were not empowered to discuss such key issues as constitutional reform and Kurdish autonomy. | But in an interview this month, one of the three PKK leaders at earlier talks in Oslo complained that the government's negotiators were not empowered to discuss such key issues as constitutional reform and Kurdish autonomy. |
| Back in 1999, surrounded by members of the Italian special forces wearing knives strapped to their thighs and nursing submachine guns, Ocalan told the Guardian: "What we want most is for this war to stop, for the Turkish state to recognise that the Kurdish problem is a political one and accept the need for dialogue." The last of his demands has long since been met. But he continues to wait for the first and second to be satisfied. With Turkish public opinion resolutely opposed to concession, it still looks like being a long wait. | Back in 1999, surrounded by members of the Italian special forces wearing knives strapped to their thighs and nursing submachine guns, Ocalan told the Guardian: "What we want most is for this war to stop, for the Turkish state to recognise that the Kurdish problem is a political one and accept the need for dialogue." The last of his demands has long since been met. But he continues to wait for the first and second to be satisfied. With Turkish public opinion resolutely opposed to concession, it still looks like being a long wait. |
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