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Pakistan Supreme Court Orders Arrest of Prime Minister Pakistan Supreme Court Orders Arrest of Prime Minister
(about 1 hour later)
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistan’s Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf in a corruption case on Tuesday afternoon, in a drastic intensification of hostilities between the country’s embattled government and its opponents. ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Barely a year after fears of a possible military coup plunged Pakistani politics into chaos, the country is in crisis again — this time besieged on multiple fronts by forces that threaten the civilian government just a few months ahead of elections.
The court order came as an enigmatic preacher turned politician, Muhammad Tahir-ul Qadri, addressed thousands of supporters outside parliament and repeated calls for the government’s ouster. In earlier speeches, he said that a caretaker administration led by technocrats should take its place. An enigmatic preacher is camped before the gates of Parliament with thousands of followers, demanding the government’s immediate ouster. The top court on Tuesday suddenly ordered the arrest of the prime minister. Violence is surging, with militants stepping up deadly attacks against both government forces and religious minorities. And relations with India have dipped, after ill-tempered border skirmishes in which soldiers on both sides were killed.
“Victory, victory, victory. By the grace of God,” Mr. Qadri said at the conclusion of a speech to his supporters, who have vowed not to leave a public square outside Parliament until their demands are satisfied. As it is all unfolding, the country’s powerful military command, long at odds with the government of President Asif Ali Zardari, is in sphinx mode. The army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, and his commanders have maintained a cool distance from the unfolding political chaos, their silence stoking speculation about whether the military’s days of political intervention are really, as it claims, over.
The confluence of the two events stoked growing speculation that Pakistan’s powerful military was quietly supporting moves that would delay general elections that are due to take place this spring, most likely through the imposition of a military-backed caretaker administration. “It’s the silence of the legions that is unnerving,” said Ayaz Amir, an opposition member of Parliament.
It was not certain that the events were linked. Some analysts said that in ordering the prime minister’s arrest, the court, which is led by the independent-minded chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, was simply taking advantage of anti-government sentiment generated by Mr. Qadri in order to pursue its longstanding grudge against President Asif Ali Zardari. More than anything else, there is a sense that gears are again shifting in Pakistan, in a direction few dare to predict — bad news for Mr. Zardari’s government, of course, but also potentially for American interests, which see stability in Pakistan as crucial to a smooth withdrawal in Afghanistan next year, as well as a guarantor of the security of the country’s nuclear arsenal.
Whatever the motivations, the court’s actions added to the chaos in Pakistan, a country whose nuclear arsenal and strategic interests in next-door Afghanistan have made it a nexus of intrigue in Asia. “There’s a sense that things are snowballing — hard to predict in any way,” said Cyril Almeida, a senior writer at Dawn newspaper.
In its order issued Tuesday, the Supreme Court ordered the National Accountability Bureau, a government body that investigates graft, to arrest Mr. Ashraf and 15 other senior current or former officials, including a former finance minister and a former finance secretary. The chief catalyst of this jolting change comes in the form of a 61-year-old preacher, Muhammad Tahir-ul Qadri, who catapulted himself into the political limelight less than a month ago, and now finds himself issuing ultimatums to Mr. Zardari from inside a bulletproof container within view of the soaring presidential residence.
The case relates to allegations that Mr. Ashraf took millions of dollars in kickbacks as part of a deal to build two electricity power plants while serving as minister for water and power between March 2008 and February 2011. A court prosecution in the case been ongoing for over one year, so it was the timing of the arrest order that raised eyebrows. A giant rally in Lahore last month signaled the start of Mr. Qadri’s assault on Pakistan’s political classes, which he derides as incompetent and irredeemably corrupt — a resonant message in a country of high unemployment and crippling electricity shortages. He drove home his message with an intensive television advertising campaign, paid for with generous amounts of money, the origins of which he has not fully explained.
It started in December 2011 when two senior opposition figures filed a petition against Mr. Ashraf in the Supreme Court; four months later the court ruled that the plants were illegal, ordered their closure, and instituted proceedings against Mr. Ashraf. On Monday evening, he stepped up the attack, leading tens of thousands of followers into the heart of Islamabad, where he renewed demands that Mr. Zardari resign immediately. The crowd fell short of the promised “million-man march,” but was enough to spook the government: by Tuesday morning, he had pushed forward to a square in front of the Parliament.
The case has particular political resonance because Pakistan’s energy crisis, which has seen severe electricity rationing across the country, is the source of some of the main complaints against the government. “There is no Parliament; there is a group of looters, thieves and dacoits” — bandits — he said in a thundering voice, pointing to the building behind him. “Our lawmakers are the lawbreakers.”
The information minister, Qamar Zaman Kaira, said the government had not received any official notification of the order to arrest Mr. Ashraf. Fawad Chaudhry, a senior adviser to the prime minister, said that any such order would be “illegal and unconstitutional.” The dramatic climax of that speech, however, came not from the preacher himself, but from the marble-walled Supreme Court about 200 yards up the street.
“Under the law, the court cannot arrest him,” he said. As Mr. Qadri spoke, news broke that Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry had issued an order for the arrest of the prime minister, Raja Pervez Ashraf. The report visibly thrilled the crowd, prompting loud cheers and a sense that the promised “revolution” was going their way.
President Zardari has called a meeting of senior advisers at his Karachi residence to discuss the crisis late Tuesday, Mr. Chaudhry added. It was a typical surprise maneuver from Chief Justice Chaudhry, a mercurial judge with a stubborn streak who, over the past year, has carved out an influential space through aggressive judicial action. A bruising court battle with Mr. Zardari claimed the career of the previous prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, who was forced to resign in June; the chief justice has also called senior generals to account for human rights abuses and election-rigging efforts stretching back two decades.
Mr. Ashraf’s ouster would not necessarily collapse the government, as he could be replaced with another candidate, and the court order could be simply the latest salvo in a long-running conflict between Mr. Zardari and the court. The move against Mr. Ashraf was not entirely unexpected; a corruption case against him, related to his three-year stint as minister for water and power, has been pending for more than a year. But its timing was striking.
Last June, Justice Chaudhary forced the resignation of Mr. Ashraf’s predecessor as prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, in another corruption case. Whether there was a link between the court and Mr. Qadri’s march on Islamabad — billed by the preacher as a “million man march” but in reality far smaller — was the subject of rampant public speculation. Speculation that the judge and the preacher acted in concert, perhaps with the backing of powerful generals, has electrified the political firmament. Mr. Qadri, in his speech, impatiently dismissed such a notion: his support came from God, the Prophet Muhammad and the 180 million people of Pakistan, he said.
Mr. Qadri stormed onto the political scene in Pakistan after returning home from a seven-year stint in Canada, where he also holds citizenship, armed with considerable funding that he has used for an intensive television advertising campaign and large rallies. And in the nearby garrison city of Rawalpindi, the generals, led by General Kayani, watched and waited. Rumors that they are manipulating events from behind the scene are unproved. But, equally, they have done nothing to help the Zardari government.
In his speech Tuesday, which was peppered with emotional Islamic references and delivered with some gusto, he demanded the immediate resignation of the government, and painted the political class as “criminals” who deserved to be prosecuted for corruption. While Pakistani military rulers once purged their disdain for civilian rule through bloodless coups, the latest breed of generals have chafed under new constraints — the military’s damaged popularity after the humiliating American commando raid in May 2011 that killed Osama bin Laden, sharp scrutiny from an emboldened media, and judicial challenges from Chief Justice Chaudhry’s court.
“There is no Parliament. There is a group of looters, thieves and dacoits!” he said in a thundering voice, pointing to the building behind him. “Our lawmakers are the lawbreakers.” General Kayani, in particular, has stressed that the military’s role in politics is over. But senior generals continue to wield heavy influence behind the scenes — foreign policy is effectively the army’s domain — and contempt for Mr. Zardari’s governance is palpable in military circles.
In contrast, Mr. Qadri offered fulsome support for the military and the Supreme Court. “Now only two institutions are there — the judiciary and the armed forces,” he said. But the opposition challenger Nawaz Sharif, who was himself deposed as prime minister by Gen. Pervez Musharraf in 1999, is not much more appealing to the generals. And so there is continuing uncertainty about the military’s commitment to allowing elections to take place within the next four months, as scheduled.
Dismissing allegations that he is secretly backed by the military, Mr. Qadri said his support came from God, the Prophet Muhammad and the 180 million people of Pakistan. The drawing rooms of the political elite have been humming with speculation of a “soft coup” — the imposition of a technocratic government, backed by the generals — for several years. But for now, the army seems content simply to watch as Mr. Qadri takes his “people’s revolution” to the streets of Islamabad, where he has promised an uprising along the lines of the Egyptian revolt in Tahrir Square.
In Lahore, the cricketer turned opposition political leader Imran Khan offered broad support to Mr. Qadri, calling on the government to resign immediately in favor of a neutral caretaker administration, and announce a date for elections. “The government is twisting in the wind, and they are just watching it happen,” said Mr. Amir, the opposition politician.
But the mechanism for choosing a caretaker administration was agreed to by the government and opposition last year, as part of a constitutional amendment that enjoyed bipartisan support — even though that mechanism does not currently include Mr. Khan because he boycotted the last election. “These kinds of demands are the product of muddled thinking about what constitutes neutrality,” said Mosharraf Zaidi, a former foreign ministry official. The difference with Egypt, of course, is that Pakistan has no dictator to overthrow. And while Mr. Zardari’s government has faced criticism as having governed poorly in many respects, it has made considerable strides in anchoring the country’s democratic structures.
The latest developments raise doubts about the government’s ability to make headway in Pakistan’s efforts to achieve stability as a democracy. Its five-year term of office ends in mid-March and elections are due to take place within the following 60 days, which, if they take place, would constitute the first such transfer of power in Pakistan’s history. Through a series of constitutional amendments, all of them approved by the opposition, Mr. Zardari has gradually devolved power to the provinces, reduced his presidential powers and made the electoral process more transparent. Now, advisers say, he is intent on completing the government’s term in March — the first time in Pakistan’s history that a civilian government would have seen out its five-year term.
But worries that Mr. Qadri, or the court, could derail that transition grew as events unfolded on Tuesday. But first that government must make it through the coming days.
Still, theories about a conspiracy linking the preacher, the judges and the military are not easy to reconcile. Over the past year Justice Chaudhry has openly clashed with top generals, as part of his court’s bid to carve out its independence from both civilian and military rulers. The law minister, Farooq Naek, said Tuesday that he would challenge the arrest order against Mr. Ashraf in court on Thursday. But the most potent test could come from Mr. Qadri, whose supporters were bedding down in neat rows of tents in Islamabad on Tuesday night, waiting for the next speech from their leader on Wednesday morning.
Justice Chaudhry has stressed that his court will not act as a rubber stamp to military rule, as it has in the past, and earlier on Tuesday he reportedly stressed the importance of holding elections by mid-May. Having shut down the center of Islamabad, and dominated the news cycle, Mr. Qadri is unlikely to surrender the limelight easily. His well-organized supporters insist they will not budge until their demands are met, and are encouraging other Pakistanis to join them.

Salman Masood contributed reporting from Islamabad, and Waqar Gillani from Lahore, Pakistan.

If that happens, the government may have little option but to break up the protest by force. And it would be at that point that the army, sitting quietly on the fence, would be most likely to step in.

Salman Masood contributed reporting from Islamabad.