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| David Cameron's tightrope act on Europe | David Cameron's tightrope act on Europe |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Europe is the poison that gnaws away at Conservative prime ministers, shreds their authority and conjures cabinet splits and backbench insurgency. For the third time in a row, after Margaret Thatcher and John Major, it is David Cameron's turn. | Europe is the poison that gnaws away at Conservative prime ministers, shreds their authority and conjures cabinet splits and backbench insurgency. For the third time in a row, after Margaret Thatcher and John Major, it is David Cameron's turn. |
| Churchill in Zurich, Thatcher in Bruges. On Friday morning, Cameron is in Amsterdam for what is billed as the defining speech of his first term. It's a tightrope act where the prime minister has both to appease a restive party and the Daily Mail while reassuring not only the rest of Europe's leaders, but Washington, too, international investors, the markets, and British business. Mission impossible? | |
| Squeezed on both sides by irreconcilable pressures, Cameron, seen from across the Channel, appears more a prisoner than a master of events. A bit like the sorcerer's apprentice, said Martin Schulz, head of the European parliament, invoking the image of Goethe's young wizard who summons into life forces he cannot control. | Squeezed on both sides by irreconcilable pressures, Cameron, seen from across the Channel, appears more a prisoner than a master of events. A bit like the sorcerer's apprentice, said Martin Schulz, head of the European parliament, invoking the image of Goethe's young wizard who summons into life forces he cannot control. |
| "The British are usually pragmatic. But he's making a big mess," said Jean-Claude Piris, until two years ago the EU's most senior lawyer. | "The British are usually pragmatic. But he's making a big mess," said Jean-Claude Piris, until two years ago the EU's most senior lawyer. |
| The problems with the speech are multiple. They start with its half-baked preparation, confusion as to the venue, the last-minute rush to secure an audience, and big questions about timing. Why make the speech at all right now? | The problems with the speech are multiple. They start with its half-baked preparation, confusion as to the venue, the last-minute rush to secure an audience, and big questions about timing. Why make the speech at all right now? |
| Cameron bases his argument for a new deal for Britain in Europe on the impact of the euro crisis. It is true that the past three years are forcing and have forced big changes in the way the eurozone is structured and how power is wielded. But everything is in flux. No one has a clue what Europe will look like in a few years' time. Better to let the dust settle and then take a calmer look at things. Besides, Cameron's actions smack of disloyalty, an unseemly rush to extract national and party political advantage from a European catastrophe without making any contribution to the solutions. | Cameron bases his argument for a new deal for Britain in Europe on the impact of the euro crisis. It is true that the past three years are forcing and have forced big changes in the way the eurozone is structured and how power is wielded. But everything is in flux. No one has a clue what Europe will look like in a few years' time. Better to let the dust settle and then take a calmer look at things. Besides, Cameron's actions smack of disloyalty, an unseemly rush to extract national and party political advantage from a European catastrophe without making any contribution to the solutions. |
| "EU leaders should make it clear to Mr Cameron that they cannot be blackmailed by his constant demands for exemptions from common EU standards and values," said Hannes Swoboda, head of the social democrats in the European parliament. | "EU leaders should make it clear to Mr Cameron that they cannot be blackmailed by his constant demands for exemptions from common EU standards and values," said Hannes Swoboda, head of the social democrats in the European parliament. |
| "This all comes at a very bad moment because we are all obsessed with the euro, with our survival," said Piris. "Things have gone too far." | "This all comes at a very bad moment because we are all obsessed with the euro, with our survival," said Piris. "Things have gone too far." |
| If Cameron's end is a new deal for Britain, the means are to reopen the European treaties and unpick what has long been negotiated, signed and ratified in order to claw back powers from the Brussels bogeyman. | |
| It's the first time a British prime minister has been so strident in demanding treaty revision. And no one else has the stomach for it. Indeed, the name of the game in Brussels, Paris and Berlin right now is to avoid treaty change at all costs. | It's the first time a British prime minister has been so strident in demanding treaty revision. And no one else has the stomach for it. Indeed, the name of the game in Brussels, Paris and Berlin right now is to avoid treaty change at all costs. |
| In response to the euro crisis, the Europeans over the past three years have established bailout funds, fiscal pacts, a raft of legislation foreseeing more centralised control of budgets and spending and the beginnings of a new eurozone banking supervisor. All of this without reopening the Lisbon treaty. The leaders' absolute priority is to focus on getting this difficult and complex new regime up and running, rather than being diverted into another marathon of bad-tempered late nights and horsetrading. | In response to the euro crisis, the Europeans over the past three years have established bailout funds, fiscal pacts, a raft of legislation foreseeing more centralised control of budgets and spending and the beginnings of a new eurozone banking supervisor. All of this without reopening the Lisbon treaty. The leaders' absolute priority is to focus on getting this difficult and complex new regime up and running, rather than being diverted into another marathon of bad-tempered late nights and horsetrading. |
| Besides, the only time that the Europeans wanted to reopen the Lisbon treaty, 13 months ago to make Angela Merkel's fiscal pact European law, they were blocked by one man, Cameron, who wielded his Brussels summit veto. He was ignored. The Europeans did the pact as an international agreement instead. | |
| If push comes to shove, they can do the same again to spur greater fiscal, economic and political integration in the eurozone, bypassing Britain and leaving Cameron looking impotent, his cries for treaty change hollow and misjudged. | If push comes to shove, they can do the same again to spur greater fiscal, economic and political integration in the eurozone, bypassing Britain and leaving Cameron looking impotent, his cries for treaty change hollow and misjudged. |
| "The fundamentals the EU is based on are not negotiable. In the middle of the severe economic crisis, it is not the right time to discuss treaty change," said Swoboda. | "The fundamentals the EU is based on are not negotiable. In the middle of the severe economic crisis, it is not the right time to discuss treaty change," said Swoboda. |
| If the Europeans are telling Cameron to be careful what you wish for, there is also plenty of goodwill towards Britain and real anxiety about the perceived drift to the EU exit. | If the Europeans are telling Cameron to be careful what you wish for, there is also plenty of goodwill towards Britain and real anxiety about the perceived drift to the EU exit. |
| Europe is in the grip of seismic shifts, rent both by centripetal and centrifugal forces. Germany and France are groping towards a new understanding indirectly reflecting Berlin's weight and Paris's relative decline. Balance of power politics are as alive as ever and Britain is still one of the EU's big three. | Europe is in the grip of seismic shifts, rent both by centripetal and centrifugal forces. Germany and France are groping towards a new understanding indirectly reflecting Berlin's weight and Paris's relative decline. Balance of power politics are as alive as ever and Britain is still one of the EU's big three. |
| The Dutch, the Scandinavians and other smaller countries look to the UK to save them from being at the mercy of a Franco-German directorate. | The Dutch, the Scandinavians and other smaller countries look to the UK to save them from being at the mercy of a Franco-German directorate. |
| The Germans need northern, liberal Britain to counter the prospect of a French-led dirigiste Club Med keen to redistribute German wealth. The French, who almost uniquely in Europe have kept quiet on the Cameron question, might be the obvious proponents of Brexit – let the Brits go. But they would then find themselves on the wrong side of an increasingly unequal relationship with the Germans. | The Germans need northern, liberal Britain to counter the prospect of a French-led dirigiste Club Med keen to redistribute German wealth. The French, who almost uniquely in Europe have kept quiet on the Cameron question, might be the obvious proponents of Brexit – let the Brits go. But they would then find themselves on the wrong side of an increasingly unequal relationship with the Germans. |
| The Europeans want to keep the Brits in. But that does not mean they will bend over backwards to keep Cameron happy. The message in advance of the speech is no cherry-picking of the rules, no special exemptions or opt-outs and no treaty reopening to cut Cameron a new deal. | |
| A more minimal agenda focused on "subsidiarity" – meaning less concentration of power in Brussels and leaving national governments in charge of more policy areas – might be on offer, for everyone, not just the UK, after the European elections and the establishment of a new European commission in 2014. | A more minimal agenda focused on "subsidiarity" – meaning less concentration of power in Brussels and leaving national governments in charge of more policy areas – might be on offer, for everyone, not just the UK, after the European elections and the establishment of a new European commission in 2014. |
| Whether that could be sold in Britain as the big new deal and tested winningly in a referendum looks doubtful. | Whether that could be sold in Britain as the big new deal and tested winningly in a referendum looks doubtful. |
| Europe might be toxic for modern Tory prime ministers. On the biggest things, though, the Conservative party can lay fair claim to being absolutely right when at their most pro-European. | Europe might be toxic for modern Tory prime ministers. On the biggest things, though, the Conservative party can lay fair claim to being absolutely right when at their most pro-European. |
| Back in the 70s when Labour was the natural home of Euroscepticism, the Tories took Britain into Europe. Thatcher championed the single market, the biggest achievement. Europe's most successful ever foreign policy – unification with eastern Europe after the cold war – was driven by the Conservatives as well as Tony Blair in the face of much continental resistance. And Britain avoided Europe's most ambitious failure, the single currency, because of John Major at Maastricht. | Back in the 70s when Labour was the natural home of Euroscepticism, the Tories took Britain into Europe. Thatcher championed the single market, the biggest achievement. Europe's most successful ever foreign policy – unification with eastern Europe after the cold war – was driven by the Conservatives as well as Tony Blair in the face of much continental resistance. And Britain avoided Europe's most ambitious failure, the single currency, because of John Major at Maastricht. |
| It's an impressive record. Cameron has got plenty to boast about in Amsterdam. If he chooses to. | It's an impressive record. Cameron has got plenty to boast about in Amsterdam. If he chooses to. |
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