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Israel election setback for Binyamin Netanyahu as centrists gain ground Israel election setback for Binyamin Netanyahu as centrists gain ground
(about 1 hour later)
Binyamin Netanyahu appears to have suffered a major blow in Israel's general election after television exit polls indicated the narrowest of victories for the rightwing-religious block. There was also a surprisingly strong showing for a new centrist party formed last year, prompting speculation that the prime minister may seek a more moderate coalition to govern Israel for the next few years. Binyamin Netanyahu suffered a major setback in Israel's general election when television exit polls indicated the narrowest of victories for the rightwing-religious block and a surprisingly strong showing for a new centrist party formed last year, forcing the prime minister to say he will seek a broad coalition to govern Israel.
Predictions by three television news channels gave 61 parliamentary seats to the rightwing and religious parties, and 59 to the centre, left and Israeli-Arab parties. Predictions by three TV news channels gave 61 parliamentary seats to the rightwing and religious parties, and 59 to the centre, left and Israeli-Arab parties.
Netanyahu remains on course to continue as prime minister as his rightwing electoral alliance, Likud-Beiteinu, looks set to be the biggest party with 31 seats out of 120 in the next parliament. Netanyahu remains on course to continue as prime minister, as his rightwing electoral alliance, Likud-Beiteinu, looks set to be the biggest party with 31 seats out of 120 in the next parliament – a sharp drop from the present combined total of 42 for the two parties.
But Yesh Atid, a new centrist party led by a former television personality, was predicted to come second with 18 or 19 seats. Yesh Atid concentrated its election campaign on socio-economic issues and removing the exemption for military service for ultra-orthodox Jews. Yesh Atid, a new centrist party led by the former television personality Yair Lapid, was predicted to come second with 18 or 19 seats. It concentrated its election campaign on socio-economic issues and removing the exemption for military service for ultra-orthodox Jews.
Voters turned out in unprecedented numbers (video) in Tuesday's election, with a record 55.5% of Israel's 5.6m eligible voters casting their ballots by 6pm, four hours before the polls closed, surprising observers who had predicted a lower turnout than in the last election in 2009. Sunshine and unusually high temperatures encouraged voter participation. Two out of three Israelis voted in Tuesday's election, a slightly higher proportion than in the previous two elections, surprising observers who had predicted a fall in turnout.
Shortly after the exit polls were broadcast, Dov Lipman, who expected to win a seat for Yesh Atid, said: "This is a very clear statement that the people of Israel want to see a different direction. We will get the country back on track." In a speech at his election headquarters in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu said: "I believe the election results are an opportunity to make changes that the citizens of Israel are hoping for and that will serve all of Israel's citizens. I intend on leading these changes, and to this end we must form as wide a coalition as possible, and I have already begun talks to that end this evening." He was reported to have phoned Lapid, saying: "We have the opportunity to do great things for the good of the Israeli people."
Labour was set to be the third largest party, with 17 seats, followed by the ultra-nationalist Jewish Home with 12 seats. The ultra-orthodox party Shas was also expected to win around 12 seats, and the leftist party Meretz made an unexpectedly strong showing, with six or seven seats, more than doubling its current presence. Lapid told campaign workers in Tel Aviv: "We must now … find the way to work together to find real solutions for real people. I call on the leaders of the political establishment to work with me together, to the best they can, to form as broad a government as possible that will contain in it the moderate forces from the left and right, the right and left, so that we will truly be able to bring about real change."
Erel Margalit of the Labour party said the exit polls indicated "a protest vote against Netanyahu" and that the huge social justice protests that swept Israel 18 months ago "were not a fringe phenomena. Perhaps some of it is moving from the streets into the political arena". Dov Lipman, who is expected to win a seat for Yesh Atid, said: "This is a very clear statement that the people of Israel want to see a different direction. We will get the country back on track."
Gideon Saar of Likud, who was education minister in the last government, said it clear from the exit polls that "the next prime minister will be Binyamin Netanyahu. He will receive – so we believe, based on the results – the role of forming the next government. I am of the opinion that this government needs to be as broad as possible." Labour was set to be the third largest party, with 17 seats. Party leader Shelly Yachimovich said in a statement: "There is no doubt we are watching a political drama unfold before our eyes … There is a high chance of a dramatic change, and of the end of the Netanyahu coalition." She said she intended to attempt to "form a coalition on an economic-social basis that will also push the peace process forward." It seems unlikely Yachimovich could present a credible alternative to Netanyahu's claim to the premiership.
Speculation about the possible composition of the next coalition government began in earnest after the exit polls. Israel's electoral system of proportional representation has ensured that no single party has gained an absolute majority since the creation of the state almost 65 years ago. Erel Margalit of Labour said the exit polls indicated "a protest vote against Netanyahu" and that the huge social justice protests that swept Israel 18 months ago "were not a fringe phenomena. Perhaps some of it is moving from the streets into the political arena".
As the leader of the biggest party, Netanyahu will be first in line to assemble a coalition. The ultra-nationalist Jewish Home, which showed strongly in opinion polls during the campaign, was predicted to win 12 seats, around the same number as the ultra-orthodox party Shas. The leftist party Meretz made an unexpectedly strong showing, with six or seven seats, more than doubling its current presence.
Although Netanyahu's natural partners are the smaller rightwing and religious parties, he is likely to be keen to include Yesh Atid and possibly Hatnua, which is led by former foreign minister Tzipi Livni, which is expected to win seven seats. Speculation about the composition of the next coalition government intensified after the exit polls. Israel's electoral system of proportional representation has ensured no single party has gained an absolute majority since the creation of the state almost 65 years ago. Negotiations are expected to last several weeks.
However, Livni's insistence on a return to meaningful negotiations with the Palestinians could deter Netanyahu from inviting her join him. Yesh Atid is much more focussed on domestic issues than the peace process. As the leader of the biggest party, Netanyahu will be first in line to assemble a coalition. Although Netanyahu's natural partners are the smaller rightwing and religious parties, he is likely to be keen to include Yesh Atid and possibly Hatnua, which is led by former foreign minister Tzipi Livni and is expected to win seven seats. However, Livni's insistence on a return to meaningful negotiations with the Palestinians could deter Netanyahu from inviting her join him.
Earlier, British foreign secretary William Hague warned that the prospects of a Palestinian state alongside an Israeli state were receding as a result of settlement expansion. "I hope that whatever Israeli government emerges … that it will recognise that we are approaching the last chance to bring about such a solution," Hague told parliament. "I condemn recent Israeli decisions to expand settlements. I speak regularly to Israeli leaders stressing our profound concern that Israel's settlement policy is losing it the support of the international community and will make a two-state solution impossible." Yehuda Ben Meir of the Institute of National Security Studies, said: "The story of this election is a slight move to the centre, and above all the possibility of Netanyahu forming a coalition only with his 'natural partners' does not exist. He is definitely going to work for a wider coalition."
He added: "There is a clock ticking with potentially disastrous consequences for the peace process." According to Ari Shavit of the liberal newspaper Haaretz, Netanyahu had failed to consolidate or advance his party's position. "While in the past he was given poor cards and played them well, this time he had the best cards and played them badly. This was a lesson in how not to run a campaign."
The European Union and the United States were considering "incentives and disincentives" to encourage the parties to return to negotiations, he said. Kadima, which was the biggest party in the last parliament with 28 seats, failed to cross the required threshold of votes needed, according to the exit polls.
Official election results will not be published until next week, but the Israeli president, Shimon Peres, will begin the process of selecting a party leader to assemble a coalition on Wednesday. Israel's electoral system of proportional representation has ensured that no single party has gained an absolute majority since the creation of the state almost 65 years ago. More than 30 parties contested Tuesday's elections.