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Boris police targets "designed to grab headlines" and risk "perverse effects" says crime expert Boris police targets 'designed to grab headlines', says crime expert
(about 9 hours later)
Boris Johnson's draft Police and Crime Plan, the first such document in the land, summarises his goals as "a 20.20.20 Approach." To achieve his "mission" of making London "the safest big city in the world" and its police force the "most loved" the mayor sets himself the challenge of reducing "key crimes" by 20%, improving public confidence in the police by the same amount and cutting costs by 20% too, all "by 2016." Boris Johnson's draft police and crime plan, the first such document in the land, summarises his goals as "a 20.20.20 Approach." To achieve his "mission" of making London "the safest big city in the world" and its police force the "most loved" the mayor sets himself the challenge of reducing "key crimes" by 20%, improving public confidence in the police by the same amount and cutting costs by 20% too, all "by 2016."
The mission includes "prioritising high police numbers and selling expensive and underused buildings," objectives characterised as complementary by the nifty slogan "bobbies before buildings." Its list of "crime priorities" is headed by "a renewed focus on street policing." It sounds snappy, it sounds savvy, it sounds bold. It also seems to be more fluffy than forensic.The mission includes "prioritising high police numbers and selling expensive and underused buildings," objectives characterised as complementary by the nifty slogan "bobbies before buildings." Its list of "crime priorities" is headed by "a renewed focus on street policing." It sounds snappy, it sounds savvy, it sounds bold. It also seems to be more fluffy than forensic.
The three leading criminologists who spoke to London Assembly members about the draft plan last week were too scholarly to say such a thing, but that seemed to be the verdict they delivered on those parts of it they had time to address.The three leading criminologists who spoke to London Assembly members about the draft plan last week were too scholarly to say such a thing, but that seemed to be the verdict they delivered on those parts of it they had time to address.
The confidence issue was discussed first. The plan declares that, "the best way to boost public confidence is to get more officers on the street where the public want to see them," but the criminologists interrogated the neatness of the assertion and questioned how confidence is measured and defined.The confidence issue was discussed first. The plan declares that, "the best way to boost public confidence is to get more officers on the street where the public want to see them," but the criminologists interrogated the neatness of the assertion and questioned how confidence is measured and defined.
Professor Marian FitzGerald, who has worked for the Home Office under both Conservative and Labour governments, said that confidence is not governed only by police visibility on the streets, but also by news coverage, good or bad, and he continued:Professor Marian FitzGerald, who has worked for the Home Office under both Conservative and Labour governments, said that confidence is not governed only by police visibility on the streets, but also by news coverage, good or bad, and he continued:
The true measure of confidence is the extent to which members of the public are prepared to report crime to the police in the first place, to cooperate in investigations and give witness and victim evidence. Those are the real measures of confidence and those are the things that I think we should be looking for improvement in.The true measure of confidence is the extent to which members of the public are prepared to report crime to the police in the first place, to cooperate in investigations and give witness and victim evidence. Those are the real measures of confidence and those are the things that I think we should be looking for improvement in.
This presented a big challenge, particularly in high crime areas, FitzGerald explained. She went on to stress that one important reason why people don't report crime in the first place is not that they lack confidence in the police in any general sense, "but simply because they're frightened of reprisals," from the criminals whose misdeeds they would otherwise report. Overcoming this fear was "a big hurdle for the police," but it absolutely had to cleared.This presented a big challenge, particularly in high crime areas, FitzGerald explained. She went on to stress that one important reason why people don't report crime in the first place is not that they lack confidence in the police in any general sense, "but simply because they're frightened of reprisals," from the criminals whose misdeeds they would otherwise report. Overcoming this fear was "a big hurdle for the police," but it absolutely had to cleared.
Mike Hough of Birkbeck College probed deeper into the draft plan's stress on police visibility. "It's very clear that people think they want more bobbies on the beat," he said. "I read that as a sort of metaphor for a style of policing. They want a style of policing which is personal and trusted. I think the key thing in any policing plan is to keep an eye on levels of police legitimacy - what makes police legitimate in the eyes of the public. It's not just numbers of bobbies on the beat, it's the way that police and the public interact."Mike Hough of Birkbeck College probed deeper into the draft plan's stress on police visibility. "It's very clear that people think they want more bobbies on the beat," he said. "I read that as a sort of metaphor for a style of policing. They want a style of policing which is personal and trusted. I think the key thing in any policing plan is to keep an eye on levels of police legitimacy - what makes police legitimate in the eyes of the public. It's not just numbers of bobbies on the beat, it's the way that police and the public interact."
Trust and fairness were key ingredients in enhancing legitimacy, he said: the public need to feel sure that procedures are undertaken correctly, that the police do their work effectively, politely and respectfully and that satisfactory outcomes are achieved. The surer the public is about such things, the more they help and co-operate. "My take home message on the plan and for anybody commenting on the plan, is that looking at legitimacy is absolutely essential to getting policing strategy right," Hough said.Trust and fairness were key ingredients in enhancing legitimacy, he said: the public need to feel sure that procedures are undertaken correctly, that the police do their work effectively, politely and respectfully and that satisfactory outcomes are achieved. The surer the public is about such things, the more they help and co-operate. "My take home message on the plan and for anybody commenting on the plan, is that looking at legitimacy is absolutely essential to getting policing strategy right," Hough said.
Does the Johnson draft plan deliver in this respect? It addresses some of those legitimacy themes, quoting the Met's analysis of its own public attitude survey which identified effective response to emergencies, supporting victims and witnesses, good community engagement, delivering on promises and treating people with respect as "drivers of public confidence." But the third member of the panel, Ben Bradford from Oxford University, thought the emphasis was wrong.Does the Johnson draft plan deliver in this respect? It addresses some of those legitimacy themes, quoting the Met's analysis of its own public attitude survey which identified effective response to emergencies, supporting victims and witnesses, good community engagement, delivering on promises and treating people with respect as "drivers of public confidence." But the third member of the panel, Ben Bradford from Oxford University, thought the emphasis was wrong.
There was a danger in placing the quantity of "bobbies on the beat" over the quality of the contacts people had with those bobbies, he said. "There was too much emphasis in the plan on structure and process. It was too much about how we are going to erect this edifice of policing or rearrange this edifice of policing, without paying nearly enough attention to the interactions officers have with members of the public - and that's where you're going to get improvements in confidence."There was a danger in placing the quantity of "bobbies on the beat" over the quality of the contacts people had with those bobbies, he said. "There was too much emphasis in the plan on structure and process. It was too much about how we are going to erect this edifice of policing or rearrange this edifice of policing, without paying nearly enough attention to the interactions officers have with members of the public - and that's where you're going to get improvements in confidence."
The draft plan makes much of a scheduled increase in the numbers of neighbourhood officers, and Johnson's political foes are unhappy that the size of safer neighbourhood teams wholly dedicated to particular wards will be reduced. They're sceptical, too, about the closure of traditional police stations and the idea of replacing them with counters at supermarkets or libraries.The draft plan makes much of a scheduled increase in the numbers of neighbourhood officers, and Johnson's political foes are unhappy that the size of safer neighbourhood teams wholly dedicated to particular wards will be reduced. They're sceptical, too, about the closure of traditional police stations and the idea of replacing them with counters at supermarkets or libraries.
The expert panel, though, was far less perturbed by all this: while one acknowledged that that for some crime victims a police station can be a sanctuary, all three underlined that the vast majority have long reported crime using the telephone and, increasingly, email. A bigger problem with the Johnson plan was that it has so little to say about the huge amount of police activity that will never be visible to the public and yet is crucial to the Met's working well.The expert panel, though, was far less perturbed by all this: while one acknowledged that that for some crime victims a police station can be a sanctuary, all three underlined that the vast majority have long reported crime using the telephone and, increasingly, email. A bigger problem with the Johnson plan was that it has so little to say about the huge amount of police activity that will never be visible to the public and yet is crucial to the Met's working well.
FitzGerald pointed out that good contact between public and police also depends on officers being becoming familiar to people. Even with safer neighbourhood teams as presently organised there's long been a problem with high turnover, she said. And what about after you've reported a crime or given an officer some information?FitzGerald pointed out that good contact between public and police also depends on officers being becoming familiar to people. Even with safer neighbourhood teams as presently organised there's long been a problem with high turnover, she said. And what about after you've reported a crime or given an officer some information?
"The stuff that affects the public directly day-to-day is only a very small part of effective policing," she pointed out. "How does it all join up? How do response teams know what neighbourhood teams have been doing and vice versa? How does everything else function together? Unless you've got all of those pieces in place - which aren't glamorous, which aren't sexy, such as civilian staff processing the intelligence and making sure it gets to the right place at the right time - you're up a gum tree.""The stuff that affects the public directly day-to-day is only a very small part of effective policing," she pointed out. "How does it all join up? How do response teams know what neighbourhood teams have been doing and vice versa? How does everything else function together? Unless you've got all of those pieces in place - which aren't glamorous, which aren't sexy, such as civilian staff processing the intelligence and making sure it gets to the right place at the right time - you're up a gum tree."
Alas, the Johnson plan has precious little to say about all that boring stuff, instead dusting off that ancient Tory mantra about freeing plucky crime-fighters red-taped to station desks. As for the mayor's snappy "20.20.20" riff, it didn't get the panellists' toes tapping at all. FitzGerald observed that if people became more confident about reported crimes a consequence would be to make the crime statistics look worse. She was asked was there a conflict between two of the "20.20.20 approach" goals? "There is a certain tension," she replied, generously.Alas, the Johnson plan has precious little to say about all that boring stuff, instead dusting off that ancient Tory mantra about freeing plucky crime-fighters red-taped to station desks. As for the mayor's snappy "20.20.20" riff, it didn't get the panellists' toes tapping at all. FitzGerald observed that if people became more confident about reported crimes a consequence would be to make the crime statistics look worse. She was asked was there a conflict between two of the "20.20.20 approach" goals? "There is a certain tension," she replied, generously.
The confidence target, in particular? "Bit optimistic," said Hough. "Probably unachievable," said Bradford. "Designed to grab headlines," said FitzGerald, adding that chasing such targets can have "perverse effects." Asked to elaborate she said:The confidence target, in particular? "Bit optimistic," said Hough. "Probably unachievable," said Bradford. "Designed to grab headlines," said FitzGerald, adding that chasing such targets can have "perverse effects." Asked to elaborate she said:
Ultimately it comes down to your officers on the ground, and how they are feeling about the job they are doing, and what they then take out on to the streets as a result of that. If what you are doing is breeding utter cynicism it does not help that essential ingredient of the day-today interaction with the public.Ultimately it comes down to your officers on the ground, and how they are feeling about the job they are doing, and what they then take out on to the streets as a result of that. If what you are doing is breeding utter cynicism it does not help that essential ingredient of the day-today interaction with the public.
I think that officers on the ground when they see these 20.20.20 targets will be reinforced in their cynicism. Plus, if they are then being very seriously beaten up and set against each other on whether they are reaching some arbitrarily set target on any measure, the usual thing is that they will drive towards that at the expense of everything else.I think that officers on the ground when they see these 20.20.20 targets will be reinforced in their cynicism. Plus, if they are then being very seriously beaten up and set against each other on whether they are reaching some arbitrarily set target on any measure, the usual thing is that they will drive towards that at the expense of everything else.
They will also be encouraged - and there is a wide and growing literature on this - to fiddle the figures in order to make the target look as though it's been met. It does nothing to improve the quality of the delivery of service to ordinary people on the ground, and those real measures of confidence will go down, and not least because those officers on the ground will be so thoroughly demoralised and cynical.They will also be encouraged - and there is a wide and growing literature on this - to fiddle the figures in order to make the target look as though it's been met. It does nothing to improve the quality of the delivery of service to ordinary people on the ground, and those real measures of confidence will go down, and not least because those officers on the ground will be so thoroughly demoralised and cynical.
Not a cheerful thought. Read the mayor's draft Police and Crime Plan 2013-17 plan via here. Dates and locations for public consultation meetings about the draft plan are listed here. A webcast of FitzGerald, Hough and Bradford speaking at the assembly's police and crime committee meeting, held on 17 January, can be watched via here. The consultation closes on 6 March.Not a cheerful thought. Read the mayor's draft Police and Crime Plan 2013-17 plan via here. Dates and locations for public consultation meetings about the draft plan are listed here. A webcast of FitzGerald, Hough and Bradford speaking at the assembly's police and crime committee meeting, held on 17 January, can be watched via here. The consultation closes on 6 March.