This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21163079

The article has changed 4 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Is it time to start talking about a depression? Is it time to start talking about a depression?
(about 11 hours later)
By Anthony Reuben Business reporter, BBC News, Davos By Anthony Reuben Business reporter, BBC News
Friday's official figures will show whether the UK economy expanded or contracted in the past three months.Friday's official figures will show whether the UK economy expanded or contracted in the past three months.
It will probably show a bit of contraction, following Olympics-flattered figures in the previous three months, when there was a bit of growth.It will probably show a bit of contraction, following Olympics-flattered figures in the previous three months, when there was a bit of growth.
It follows the pattern of recent years, and every time there are two quarters of contraction in a row, we get excited about a recession, and then when there is growth again we get excited about the recovery.It follows the pattern of recent years, and every time there are two quarters of contraction in a row, we get excited about a recession, and then when there is growth again we get excited about the recovery.
Yet the UK economy is still considerably smaller than it was when the crisis started in 2008.Yet the UK economy is still considerably smaller than it was when the crisis started in 2008.
The influential National Institute for Economic and Social Research says we have been in a depression since then, and will not emerge until the economy reaches its 2008 level.The influential National Institute for Economic and Social Research says we have been in a depression since then, and will not emerge until the economy reaches its 2008 level.
'Sideways slide''Sideways slide'
And yet the word depression has rarely been mentioned and some economists have gone to great lengths to avoid using it.And yet the word depression has rarely been mentioned and some economists have gone to great lengths to avoid using it.
"I've been trying to use a different word," says Randall Kroszener, professor of economics at University of Chicago, who used to sit on the committee that sets US interest rates."I've been trying to use a different word," says Randall Kroszener, professor of economics at University of Chicago, who used to sit on the committee that sets US interest rates.
"I came up with the term 'sideways slide', which characterises where lots of economies are - not boom and bust, just sliding along, surviving.""I came up with the term 'sideways slide', which characterises where lots of economies are - not boom and bust, just sliding along, surviving."
Prof Kroszener says the key difference between a long recession and a depression is whether there are falling prices, or deflation.Prof Kroszener says the key difference between a long recession and a depression is whether there are falling prices, or deflation.
The trouble is, while the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is widely accepted, there is no popular definition of a depression, which means there is nowhere to go once recessions stop being relevant.The trouble is, while the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is widely accepted, there is no popular definition of a depression, which means there is nowhere to go once recessions stop being relevant.
"The economy is either in high growth or in low growth, and we're on low growth," says Andrew Scott, professor of economics at London Business School."The economy is either in high growth or in low growth, and we're on low growth," says Andrew Scott, professor of economics at London Business School.
"We're on a low trend so who cares about whether we're in recession or not?""We're on a low trend so who cares about whether we're in recession or not?"
'Less pessimism''Less pessimism'
David Sproul, chief executive of Deloitte UK, says he is seeing the mood improving among his client businesses.David Sproul, chief executive of Deloitte UK, says he is seeing the mood improving among his client businesses.
"We're seeing much less pessimism around, but not yet optimism," he says."We're seeing much less pessimism around, but not yet optimism," he says.
"We're in an environment of uncertainty, which is very sentiment driven.""We're in an environment of uncertainty, which is very sentiment driven."
But he adds that many businesses are still concentrating on cost control to grow profits, which suggests a lack of confidence.But he adds that many businesses are still concentrating on cost control to grow profits, which suggests a lack of confidence.
On Friday, there will probably be headlines about whether the economy is going into a triple-dip recession.On Friday, there will probably be headlines about whether the economy is going into a triple-dip recession.
But that will ignore the fact that the economy has been basically flat for about two-and-a-half years.But that will ignore the fact that the economy has been basically flat for about two-and-a-half years.
The answer may not be to call it a depression, but something is needed to get the narrative beyond the obsession with tiny bits of growth or contraction every three months.The answer may not be to call it a depression, but something is needed to get the narrative beyond the obsession with tiny bits of growth or contraction every three months.
The experts quoted in this article were all attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.The experts quoted in this article were all attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.