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| Boundary change defeat is a masterful victory for Labour | Boundary change defeat is a masterful victory for Labour |
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| Had boundary changes passed, a reduced House of Commons of 600 with equal-sized constituencies would have likely benefitted the Conservatives to the tune of 20 seats. | Had boundary changes passed, a reduced House of Commons of 600 with equal-sized constituencies would have likely benefitted the Conservatives to the tune of 20 seats. |
| Thus its defeat is more then just a parliamentary setback for David Cameron, it is a 20-seat advance towards Downing Street for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband. Consider the value of that for a moment: instead of 20 parliamentary selections, 20 additional organisers, 20 more hard-fought election campaigns, Miliband at a stroke improves his chances of victory by 20 seats. | Thus its defeat is more then just a parliamentary setback for David Cameron, it is a 20-seat advance towards Downing Street for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband. Consider the value of that for a moment: instead of 20 parliamentary selections, 20 additional organisers, 20 more hard-fought election campaigns, Miliband at a stroke improves his chances of victory by 20 seats. |
| The Tory strategy was cynical but brilliant: bring forward a "kill-the-Labour-party" boundary change bill tied to Liberal Democrat dreams of constitutional reform. But Conservative parliamentary execution lacked the necessary legislative cunning. Not so Labour's response, where the wily Sadiq Khan's parliamentary guerrilla warfare carefully positioned Labour to support Lords reform in principle but force Conservative backbenchers into defeating it in practice. Thus Labour maximised the chances of the Liberal Democrats avenging their Lords reform loss by voting against boundary changes. | The Tory strategy was cynical but brilliant: bring forward a "kill-the-Labour-party" boundary change bill tied to Liberal Democrat dreams of constitutional reform. But Conservative parliamentary execution lacked the necessary legislative cunning. Not so Labour's response, where the wily Sadiq Khan's parliamentary guerrilla warfare carefully positioned Labour to support Lords reform in principle but force Conservative backbenchers into defeating it in practice. Thus Labour maximised the chances of the Liberal Democrats avenging their Lords reform loss by voting against boundary changes. |
| The Conservatives' intention had been to rig the rules of the game against Labour for 2015. They cite the unfair bias within the first past the post system that ostensibly allows Labour to win seats with far fewer votes then the Conservatives. But as Political Betting's Mike Smithson notes, in 2010 it took 34,940 votes for each winning Tory seat against 33,370 votes for each Labour seat. Even so, one might feel sorry for the Tories if it weren't for their opposition to the alternative vote, which would have addressed this very point. C'est la guerre. | The Conservatives' intention had been to rig the rules of the game against Labour for 2015. They cite the unfair bias within the first past the post system that ostensibly allows Labour to win seats with far fewer votes then the Conservatives. But as Political Betting's Mike Smithson notes, in 2010 it took 34,940 votes for each winning Tory seat against 33,370 votes for each Labour seat. Even so, one might feel sorry for the Tories if it weren't for their opposition to the alternative vote, which would have addressed this very point. C'est la guerre. |
| The Conservatives have been forced to depend upon manoeuvres to win 2015 rather than their record. The current attempts to disenfranchise Labour voters through a shift to individual voter registration and likely caps on trade union funding are the next battles to be fought. Such manoeuvres are evidence of the Conservative party's own lack of confidence in their 2015 prospects. The failure to eliminate the deficit, the fear of a triple-dip recession, squeezed incomes and falling living standards had left Tory strategists dependent upon boundary changes as a legislative solution to a strategic problem. Now, with the loss of their best means of rigging the game for their own electoral ends, Cameron is increasingly dependent on outside events to rescue his plunging political fortunes. The increasing chance of a downgrade to Osborne's cherished triple A credit rating is unlikely to assist. | The Conservatives have been forced to depend upon manoeuvres to win 2015 rather than their record. The current attempts to disenfranchise Labour voters through a shift to individual voter registration and likely caps on trade union funding are the next battles to be fought. Such manoeuvres are evidence of the Conservative party's own lack of confidence in their 2015 prospects. The failure to eliminate the deficit, the fear of a triple-dip recession, squeezed incomes and falling living standards had left Tory strategists dependent upon boundary changes as a legislative solution to a strategic problem. Now, with the loss of their best means of rigging the game for their own electoral ends, Cameron is increasingly dependent on outside events to rescue his plunging political fortunes. The increasing chance of a downgrade to Osborne's cherished triple A credit rating is unlikely to assist. |
| Miliband, on the other hand, can look to 2015 with increasing confidence. Campaign chief and proven political street-fighter Tom Watson has unveiled Labour's list of 106 target seats – all attack blues and yellows with no pretence that Labour needs fear for its own reds. With strong support from ex-Lib Dem voters and major mobilisation efforts to non-voters under way, Labour looks set to drive turnout up in the marginals. The upshot for Labour is a surprisingly resilient electoral coalition capable of withstanding even Cameron's Europe gambit, which saw Tory poll numbers rise yet made no dent in Labour's solid numbers. | Miliband, on the other hand, can look to 2015 with increasing confidence. Campaign chief and proven political street-fighter Tom Watson has unveiled Labour's list of 106 target seats – all attack blues and yellows with no pretence that Labour needs fear for its own reds. With strong support from ex-Lib Dem voters and major mobilisation efforts to non-voters under way, Labour looks set to drive turnout up in the marginals. The upshot for Labour is a surprisingly resilient electoral coalition capable of withstanding even Cameron's Europe gambit, which saw Tory poll numbers rise yet made no dent in Labour's solid numbers. |
| Hence the importance of the boundary changes for both leaders. For the prime minister has now played his gerrymandering card and his Europe card and his only hand left to play is weaker then ever. Meanwhile Miliband has outplayed Cameron on boundaries and thus both strengthened Labour for the general election while weakening the coalition internally. | Hence the importance of the boundary changes for both leaders. For the prime minister has now played his gerrymandering card and his Europe card and his only hand left to play is weaker then ever. Meanwhile Miliband has outplayed Cameron on boundaries and thus both strengthened Labour for the general election while weakening the coalition internally. |
| Clear-cut victories in politics are rare. Those with lasting implications rarer still – yet the boundary change defeat is just that. Labour played the politics of this as masterfully as the coalition did so disastrously. The consequences for 2015 are clear. /> | |