Australia's election in five subplots: from gender politics to Julian Assange

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/31/australian-election-five-subplots

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The Australian prime minister, Julia Gillard, has announced that the Australian election will take place on 14 September, ushering in an unprecedented eight-month election campaign. The announcement was completely unexpected – a number of Gillard's own ministers heard about it first during her press conference – and has set up a battle stretching over months between two of Australia's least popular politicians.

In what is set to be a gruelling campaign there are any number of fascinating subplots to be played out, but here are five of the most important:

1. Gillard v Abbott – who can be the least unpopular?

With the opposition leading the governing Labor party in the polls by a healthy 6%, in most elections the centre-right Liberal party would be seen as a shoo-in come September. But it remains hamstrung by its biggest political liability, the leader, Tony Abbott.

Abbott is a staunch Catholic whose social conservatism places him on the right of not only most Australians but most of his own party. With an approval rating of only 34% and a disapproval rating of over 60%, Abbott is a deeply unpopular figure, and Gillard's decision to set the date of the election so early has been seen, in part, as a way to ensure that Abbott is her rival.

But Gillard herself suffers from low approval ratings which, despite a bounce after her speech accusing Abbott of misogyny, have never recovered from her backflip on the introduction of a carbon tax, and the mode of her ascension to power – replacing the more popular Kevin Rudd. Her opposition to gay marriage also rankles with the left.

An election where both leaders are unpopular with their opposition is de rigueur – one where they are both so unpopular across the political spectrum is something new.

2. The gender issue

With her October 2012 speech Gillard placed gender at the centre of Australian political discourse in a way that is rare, and perhaps unheard of in a major election.

Not that Gillard's position on the moral high ground is assured. In recent days the issue was thrown into a tailspin by her partner, Tim Mathieson, encouraging Australian men getting their prostates checked to choose a "small Asian female doctor", thus opening himself to accusations of sexism, racism and, indeed, heightism. But this remains an election where the leaders – despite Abbott's attempts to distance himself from the issue – are seen as occupying starkly different positions.

Abbott's stance on abortion, for instance – he has said that the current rate of abortion is "this generation's legacy of unutterable shame" and as health minister attempted to block access to RU486, the medical alternative to surgical abortion – has led to fears that as prime minister he would limit access to options and medical care.

3. Immigration – tough v tough

While Australia has never been tempted to adopt the mooted British proposal of actively talking down the nation in order to discourage immigration from Romania and Bulgaria – Australian rhetoric about being the greatest nation on earth would disallow such posturing – both parties have hardline stances on immigration. Since the premiership of John Howard in the 1990s – "We will decide who comes into this country" – opposition to illegal immigration and the detention of illegal immigrants are political no-brainers in Australia.

Abbott's rhetoric is firmer – the party has adopted the phrase "stop the boats" as a catch-all for the debate. But the Labor position – some would call it more nuanced, others more confused – is more or less the same, differing more in method than in desired outcome. Gillard increased the annual refugee intake from 13,700 to 20,000 last year, but allied it to a reversal in Labor's opposition to offshore detention and processing. This issue is Abbott's to exploit – Labor's response to the issue has all the problems of incumbency against the opposition's sloganeering.

4. Business or environment – you choose

A huge part of Gillard's unpopularity lies in her imposition of a carbon emissions tax on Australia's largest polluters, a tax she promised not to introduce and which the opposition has pledged to repeal. The issue polarises Australia in a way that has no real UK equivalent, dividing the nation between those who are for "business" and those for "the environment", with middle ground often hard to identify. Mining remains the nation's chief source of income, but environmental concerns are growing ever more pressing – Australia is suffering through its hottest summer ever, battered by an increasing number of natural disasters.

Abbott, a climate change sceptic, has placed the Liberal party firmly on the side of business and will seek to portray the government as being firmly on the side of the so-called tree huggers. Labor will be walking a tightrope on the issue, as it has done since being elected.

5. The wild card – Julian Assange

And as if the personality battles and global policy issues weren't enough, there is the decision of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to run for the Australian Senate from his domicile in the Ecuadorian embassy, a move that Assange's own mum has come out and called "awesome". Assange remains popular in Australia, and his promise to form a WikiLeaks party will make both established parties uncomfortable. Assange has nothing to lose, and the prospect of watching Gillard and Abbott being called to account is a fascinating one.

Roll on 14 September.