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| Do police cuts lead to more crime? | Do police cuts lead to more crime? |
| (25 days later) | |
| We are used to hearing that fewer doctors lead to longer hospital waiting times and fewer teachers mean worse exam results, but do fewer police officers necessarily mean more crime? | We are used to hearing that fewer doctors lead to longer hospital waiting times and fewer teachers mean worse exam results, but do fewer police officers necessarily mean more crime? |
| The 20% cut in Whitehall funding for the police combined with the recession was widely predicted to lead to a sustained rise in crime for the first time in nearly 20 years. Police officer numbers have certainly fallen sharply – down 11,500 since the general election. | The 20% cut in Whitehall funding for the police combined with the recession was widely predicted to lead to a sustained rise in crime for the first time in nearly 20 years. Police officer numbers have certainly fallen sharply – down 11,500 since the general election. |
| But the latest official crime survey figures show not only have the predictions of "Christmas for criminals" been confounded but the decline in crime now appears to be accelerating, with an 8% fall in the last year and the murder rate in England and Wales down to a level not seen since 1978. | But the latest official crime survey figures show not only have the predictions of "Christmas for criminals" been confounded but the decline in crime now appears to be accelerating, with an 8% fall in the last year and the murder rate in England and Wales down to a level not seen since 1978. |
| The criminologists have always argued that there is no simple direct link between police numbers and crime rates. | The criminologists have always argued that there is no simple direct link between police numbers and crime rates. |
| After all why should there be? Fewer criminals should mean a lower crime rate. But the police are not just there to catch criminals. They have other important roles including providing a reassuring, visible presence on the streets which is why voters are so keen to see bobbies on the beat despite the fact they are unlikely to be catching criminals. What matters most for detection rates and fighting crime is what police spend their time doing during their shifts rather than how many of them are in the job, runs the argument. As Tony Blair famously pointed out, tackling the causes of crime also plays a major part. | After all why should there be? Fewer criminals should mean a lower crime rate. But the police are not just there to catch criminals. They have other important roles including providing a reassuring, visible presence on the streets which is why voters are so keen to see bobbies on the beat despite the fact they are unlikely to be catching criminals. What matters most for detection rates and fighting crime is what police spend their time doing during their shifts rather than how many of them are in the job, runs the argument. As Tony Blair famously pointed out, tackling the causes of crime also plays a major part. |
| The academic research is mixed. A recent review of the literature for Her Majesty's Chief Inspector of Constabulary by Ben Bradford concluded that there was not enough evidence to say that higher numbers of police officers was the direct cause of lower levels of crime. However, he did say that while no single piece of research provided robust evidence of a link, taken together recent studies did suggest that a 10% rise in police numbers could lead to a 3% fall in property crime, such as burglary. They didn't, however, establish a link saying that fewer officers would lead to a rise in property crime. | The academic research is mixed. A recent review of the literature for Her Majesty's Chief Inspector of Constabulary by Ben Bradford concluded that there was not enough evidence to say that higher numbers of police officers was the direct cause of lower levels of crime. However, he did say that while no single piece of research provided robust evidence of a link, taken together recent studies did suggest that a 10% rise in police numbers could lead to a 3% fall in property crime, such as burglary. They didn't, however, establish a link saying that fewer officers would lead to a rise in property crime. |
| Bradford also added that there was no link found between officer numbers and violent crime levels. | Bradford also added that there was no link found between officer numbers and violent crime levels. |
| Most of the international academic research also tends to involve looking at one-off and large-scale changes in police numbers, such as during a terrorist attack or a police strike. For example it has been shown that in the aftermath of the 7/7 bombings in London the sudden deployment of a large of number of officers in central London led to downward spike in crime. But these are short-term fluctuations. | Most of the international academic research also tends to involve looking at one-off and large-scale changes in police numbers, such as during a terrorist attack or a police strike. For example it has been shown that in the aftermath of the 7/7 bombings in London the sudden deployment of a large of number of officers in central London led to downward spike in crime. But these are short-term fluctuations. |
| There has been a sustained fall in crime in England and Wales of more than 40% since the mid-1990s. It is looking increasingly likely that it is going to take more than a cut in police numbers – however deep – to bring it to an immediate juddering halt. | There has been a sustained fall in crime in England and Wales of more than 40% since the mid-1990s. It is looking increasingly likely that it is going to take more than a cut in police numbers – however deep – to bring it to an immediate juddering halt. |
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