This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jan/31/tories-pm-poll-ratings-revolt

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Tories tell PM: lift poll ratings or face revolt Tories tell PM: lift poll ratings or face revolt
(1 day later)
Downing Street has been warned that David Cameron risks facing a confidence vote over his leadership in the summer of 2014 if his poll ratings fail to improve and the party performs poorly in the local elections.Downing Street has been warned that David Cameron risks facing a confidence vote over his leadership in the summer of 2014 if his poll ratings fail to improve and the party performs poorly in the local elections.
A diehard group of party rebels, who would like to remove the prime minister immediately, will significantly grow in numbers over the next 17 months if the Tories fail to achieve a breakthrough, according to MPs inside and outside the government.A diehard group of party rebels, who would like to remove the prime minister immediately, will significantly grow in numbers over the next 17 months if the Tories fail to achieve a breakthrough, according to MPs inside and outside the government.
An incipient Tory rebellion was blown into the open this week when a leadership campaign by the former shadow science minister Adam Afriyie was exposed by the Mail on Sunday. The campaign, which was hoping to collect 120 signed letters in support of the millionaire MP for Windsor, has been widely derided by MPs who have said that it would be "mad" for the party to turn to a relative unknown who has never held ministerial office. Cameron made light of the challenge this week, telling MPs: "The Conservative party has always stood for people who want to work hard and get on and I'm glad that all of those behind me take that very seriously indeed."An incipient Tory rebellion was blown into the open this week when a leadership campaign by the former shadow science minister Adam Afriyie was exposed by the Mail on Sunday. The campaign, which was hoping to collect 120 signed letters in support of the millionaire MP for Windsor, has been widely derided by MPs who have said that it would be "mad" for the party to turn to a relative unknown who has never held ministerial office. Cameron made light of the challenge this week, telling MPs: "The Conservative party has always stood for people who want to work hard and get on and I'm glad that all of those behind me take that very seriously indeed."
But the Guardian understands from members of the government and from prominent backbenchers that there is a growing belief that enough MPs are prepared to trigger a vote of confidence in the prime minister in the summer of 2014 if the Tories experience a setback in the local elections. Such a contest would be triggered automatically if 46 MPs – 15% of the parliamentary party – write to the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady.But the Guardian understands from members of the government and from prominent backbenchers that there is a growing belief that enough MPs are prepared to trigger a vote of confidence in the prime minister in the summer of 2014 if the Tories experience a setback in the local elections. Such a contest would be triggered automatically if 46 MPs – 15% of the parliamentary party – write to the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady.
One MP said: "There is a core of MPs that is determined to get rid of Cameron right now. They think he lost the last election, they think he cannot win the next election and maybe doesn't even want to win the election. They think he just likes the idea of being a coalition prime minister.One MP said: "There is a core of MPs that is determined to get rid of Cameron right now. They think he lost the last election, they think he cannot win the next election and maybe doesn't even want to win the election. They think he just likes the idea of being a coalition prime minister.
"While this group are wrong to think of a move now, there would be support for a contest if there is no movement for the party by 2014. There would be no problem in drumming up 46 letters to Graham Brady at that point. I could name them. I would support it.""While this group are wrong to think of a move now, there would be support for a contest if there is no movement for the party by 2014. There would be no problem in drumming up 46 letters to Graham Brady at that point. I could name them. I would support it."
The MP voiced the hope that the prime minister would revive his and the party's fortunes. "Maybe Cameron will turn things round. He is very good when his back is against the wall. But he is hopeless at managing the team room." The MP voiced the hope that the prime minister would revive his and the party's fortunes. "Maybe Cameron will turn things round. He is very good when his back is against the wall. But he is hopeless at managing the tea room."
One member of the government said of the rebels: "This is not necessarily about waiting until 2015 and seeing if David Cameron loses. This is about being ready for the moment when the party realises that Cameron is not a winner."One member of the government said of the rebels: "This is not necessarily about waiting until 2015 and seeing if David Cameron loses. This is about being ready for the moment when the party realises that Cameron is not a winner."
The MP said that while the Afriyie campaign was not credible, it had touched a nerve as the party looked to a future where it could be led by someone whose background contrasts dramatically with Cameron's.The MP said that while the Afriyie campaign was not credible, it had touched a nerve as the party looked to a future where it could be led by someone whose background contrasts dramatically with Cameron's.
"Colleagues are fed up with the posh boys. They do not look like the country. I would love it if a working class guy of mixed race became our leader. It would say to Labour – wrong again. We had first woman leader, the first Jewish leader and now the first black leader.""Colleagues are fed up with the posh boys. They do not look like the country. I would love it if a working class guy of mixed race became our leader. It would say to Labour – wrong again. We had first woman leader, the first Jewish leader and now the first black leader."
The manoeuvring has exposed divisions among supporters of Afriyie. The former frontbencher maintains that he only ever intended to stand if Cameron resigned after losing the 2015 election. But some of his supporters want to unseat Cameron now.The manoeuvring has exposed divisions among supporters of Afriyie. The former frontbencher maintains that he only ever intended to stand if Cameron resigned after losing the 2015 election. But some of his supporters want to unseat Cameron now.
Loyalists insist that the Afriyie campaign had ended up strengthening the prime minister.Loyalists insist that the Afriyie campaign had ended up strengthening the prime minister.
One member of the government said: "What this week has done is guarantee that David Cameron will lead us into the next election. The Afriyie campaign is mad and far too premature." But the MP added: "Clearly there are MPs who want David out."One member of the government said: "What this week has done is guarantee that David Cameron will lead us into the next election. The Afriyie campaign is mad and far too premature." But the MP added: "Clearly there are MPs who want David out."
One minister said: "I have been involved in Conservative politics for 20 years. The Conservative party is never not plotting."One minister said: "I have been involved in Conservative politics for 20 years. The Conservative party is never not plotting."
Others were more dismissive. One prominent backbencher said: "David Cameron will lead us into the next election. These people are somewhat deluded. What is their problem?Others were more dismissive. One prominent backbencher said: "David Cameron will lead us into the next election. These people are somewhat deluded. What is their problem?
"The prime minister has an incredibly difficult job and he has just promised us a referendum on our membership of the EU with a deadline.""The prime minister has an incredibly difficult job and he has just promised us a referendum on our membership of the EU with a deadline."
The prospect of a leadership contest will focus attention on Brady whose predecessor, Sir Michael Spicer, was chairman of the 1922 Committee when a vote of confidence triggered the downfall of Iain Duncan Smith in 2003.The prospect of a leadership contest will focus attention on Brady whose predecessor, Sir Michael Spicer, was chairman of the 1922 Committee when a vote of confidence triggered the downfall of Iain Duncan Smith in 2003.
It is understood that Brady already has a handful of letters in his safe calling for a vote of confidence in Cameron. At least one MP sacked from the Tory frontbench by Cameron has written. But Brady is praised by Cameron and by MPs across the party for being the soul of discretion.It is understood that Brady already has a handful of letters in his safe calling for a vote of confidence in Cameron. At least one MP sacked from the Tory frontbench by Cameron has written. But Brady is praised by Cameron and by MPs across the party for being the soul of discretion.
The events of the past weeks have also clarified in the minds of senior Tories that George Osborne enjoys negligible support on the Tory benches should he decide to stand.The events of the past weeks have also clarified in the minds of senior Tories that George Osborne enjoys negligible support on the Tory benches should he decide to stand.
• This article was amended on 1 February 2013. The original quoted an MP as saying David Cameron was "hopeless at managing the team room". This has been corrected to "tea room".