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A return to nuclear diplomacy with Iran | A return to nuclear diplomacy with Iran |
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So the talking begins again in Kazakhstan on February 25. At least, it probably does. Iran's foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, announced it as "good news" he was bringing the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. The office of Cathy Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief whose job it is to help organise such talks, says it is still waiting to hear from the man who leads the Iranian delegation, Saeed Jalili, before declaring a date. | So the talking begins again in Kazakhstan on February 25. At least, it probably does. Iran's foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, announced it as "good news" he was bringing the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. The office of Cathy Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief whose job it is to help organise such talks, says it is still waiting to hear from the man who leads the Iranian delegation, Saeed Jalili, before declaring a date. |
These talks were supposed to begin after the US presidential election, but got bogged down in procedure, almost certainly to mask Iranian uncertainty over whether a new round of talks was in its interests. Long pauses between phone calls to Brussels alternated with sporadic suggestions about difficult places to meet. The six nations Ashton represents (US, UK, Germany, France, China and Russia) would have preferred to stick to Istanbul as a permanent venue. In the end, they seem to have accepted Kazakhstan, one of Iran's proposals. | These talks were supposed to begin after the US presidential election, but got bogged down in procedure, almost certainly to mask Iranian uncertainty over whether a new round of talks was in its interests. Long pauses between phone calls to Brussels alternated with sporadic suggestions about difficult places to meet. The six nations Ashton represents (US, UK, Germany, France, China and Russia) would have preferred to stick to Istanbul as a permanent venue. In the end, they seem to have accepted Kazakhstan, one of Iran's proposals. |
Assuming Jalili confirms the arrangement, the Iranian nuclear diplomacy caravan will find itself heading in three weeks time to the frozen steppe. The fact that all this to and fro has taken two months gives some idea of the long march ahead. The same factors that made it such hard work will be present in spades in Astana (or Almaty, an outside bet for the venue). | Assuming Jalili confirms the arrangement, the Iranian nuclear diplomacy caravan will find itself heading in three weeks time to the frozen steppe. The fact that all this to and fro has taken two months gives some idea of the long march ahead. The same factors that made it such hard work will be present in spades in Astana (or Almaty, an outside bet for the venue). |
Primary among these is national pride. Salehi's address to the Munich Security Conference today bristled with it. His country's civilisation is thousands of years old, he pointed out, much more advanced than its neighbours, and not about to be bowed by the temporary inconveniences of sanctions. He talked about the satellites Iran has launched recently (though no mention of the monkey) and the high standard of its tertiary education. | Primary among these is national pride. Salehi's address to the Munich Security Conference today bristled with it. His country's civilisation is thousands of years old, he pointed out, much more advanced than its neighbours, and not about to be bowed by the temporary inconveniences of sanctions. He talked about the satellites Iran has launched recently (though no mention of the monkey) and the high standard of its tertiary education. |
The backfire potential of sanctions was on vivid display here. Iran will not enter into negotiations in what it considers humiliating circumstances. That is doubly true in the run-up to the June presidential elections. In fact, those elections present a double bind, as Vali Nasr (former state department adviser and dean of the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies) pointed out in Munich. On one hand, if Jalili (a potential candidate) comes home with a deal he will be denounced as a sell-out by his rivals. Just in case, those rivals will strive to postpone real talks until after the election, so they have a chance to claim credit if they work out. | The backfire potential of sanctions was on vivid display here. Iran will not enter into negotiations in what it considers humiliating circumstances. That is doubly true in the run-up to the June presidential elections. In fact, those elections present a double bind, as Vali Nasr (former state department adviser and dean of the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies) pointed out in Munich. On one hand, if Jalili (a potential candidate) comes home with a deal he will be denounced as a sell-out by his rivals. Just in case, those rivals will strive to postpone real talks until after the election, so they have a chance to claim credit if they work out. |
It is quite possible real progress cannot be made until after the June elections, but Nasr argues that is no excuse for the six powers not to come up with a better offer than the one they presented last June in Moscow, where Iran was asked to stop making 20%-enriched uranium, in return for aircraft parts and help with civil power reactors. Substantial relief from the European oil embargo and blanket financial sanctions was not on offer. | It is quite possible real progress cannot be made until after the June elections, but Nasr argues that is no excuse for the six powers not to come up with a better offer than the one they presented last June in Moscow, where Iran was asked to stop making 20%-enriched uranium, in return for aircraft parts and help with civil power reactors. Substantial relief from the European oil embargo and blanket financial sanctions was not on offer. |
Sanctions do seem to have brought Iran to the table over its nuclear programme, Nasr said, but if they are to be put to use as a potential lever, rather than simply a form of punishment, the sanctions themselves also have to to be on that table. Otherwise the international pressure risks backfiring, leading Iran to calculate it is in its interests to accelerate its programme, as a way to pile up bargaining chips. | Sanctions do seem to have brought Iran to the table over its nuclear programme, Nasr said, but if they are to be put to use as a potential lever, rather than simply a form of punishment, the sanctions themselves also have to to be on that table. Otherwise the international pressure risks backfiring, leading Iran to calculate it is in its interests to accelerate its programme, as a way to pile up bargaining chips. |
There are already signs that is happening. Last week Iran sent the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a letter saying it was going to install thousands of a new generation of centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. | There are already signs that is happening. Last week Iran sent the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a letter saying it was going to install thousands of a new generation of centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. |
These machines, known as IR-2Ms, have parts made of maraging steel and carbon fibre and can enrich three to five times faster than the current IR-1s. If Iran manages to install the new machines in the numbers it is indicating, it would dramatically shorten its 'break-out' time - the time it would take to make a dash to make a bomb having chucked out the IAEA inspectors. That will make Israel, the Arab neighbours and the West all the more jumpy. | These machines, known as IR-2Ms, have parts made of maraging steel and carbon fibre and can enrich three to five times faster than the current IR-1s. If Iran manages to install the new machines in the numbers it is indicating, it would dramatically shorten its 'break-out' time - the time it would take to make a dash to make a bomb having chucked out the IAEA inspectors. That will make Israel, the Arab neighbours and the West all the more jumpy. |
Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies had this to say: | Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies had this to say: |
They have been working on these second generation centrifuges for about 10 years. The mystery is why that had not been able to make the breakthrough from RND. If they now put them in in large numbers, the timeline for a break-out is shortened dramatically. | They have been working on these second generation centrifuges for about 10 years. The mystery is why that had not been able to make the breakthrough from RND. If they now put them in in large numbers, the timeline for a break-out is shortened dramatically. |
The US has conducted an intensive campaign to stop Iran getting hold of maraging steel and carbon fibre for just this reason. David Albright, at the Institute for Science and International Security said that if the Iranians have been able to get hold of enough to make thousands of machines, that effort will have clearly failed. | The US has conducted an intensive campaign to stop Iran getting hold of maraging steel and carbon fibre for just this reason. David Albright, at the Institute for Science and International Security said that if the Iranians have been able to get hold of enough to make thousands of machines, that effort will have clearly failed. |
Still, Albright points out there are a lot of unknowns: the extent to which Iran is bluffing in its poker game with the six powers. If it really has the centrifuges, a lot will depend on how fast it can install them and getting them to work properly in arrays. | Still, Albright points out there are a lot of unknowns: the extent to which Iran is bluffing in its poker game with the six powers. If it really has the centrifuges, a lot will depend on how fast it can install them and getting them to work properly in arrays. |
All this suggests the need for finely-judged diplomacy in Kazakhstan to keep the talks in play long enough to get through Iran's elections and eventually through to the next stage in this process - bilateral talks between the US and Iran. | All this suggests the need for finely-judged diplomacy in Kazakhstan to keep the talks in play long enough to get through Iran's elections and eventually through to the next stage in this process - bilateral talks between the US and Iran. |
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