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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Winter nor'easter bears down on US as region prepares for a walloping | Winter nor'easter bears down on US as region prepares for a walloping |
| (30 days later) | |
| The blizzard of 2013, a storm forecast for the north-eastern United States this weekend, looks almost certain to deliver the goods. The Boston metropolitan area and most of Rhode Island are under a blizzard watch, while almost all of the remaining parts of New England, northern New Jersey, and the entire state of New York is under a winter storm watch or warning. | The blizzard of 2013, a storm forecast for the north-eastern United States this weekend, looks almost certain to deliver the goods. The Boston metropolitan area and most of Rhode Island are under a blizzard watch, while almost all of the remaining parts of New England, northern New Jersey, and the entire state of New York is under a winter storm watch or warning. |
| There are still a lot of questions about forecast amounts in areas outside of southern New England, which is why I'll be becoming back with an update this afternoon. Still, I'm going to try and explain about the situation as best as I can right now. | There are still a lot of questions about forecast amounts in areas outside of southern New England, which is why I'll be becoming back with an update this afternoon. Still, I'm going to try and explain about the situation as best as I can right now. |
| When will the storm occur? | When will the storm occur? |
| Snow is possible in any of these areas from 7am on Friday through at least Saturday morning. Further north gets a later starting time. The dangerous parts when 1-2+ inches fall per hour from Friday evening to Saturday morning. | Snow is possible in any of these areas from 7am on Friday through at least Saturday morning. Further north gets a later starting time. The dangerous parts when 1-2+ inches fall per hour from Friday evening to Saturday morning. |
| Where I feel confident | Where I feel confident |
| The place where I feel most confident in amounts is basically that zone under the blizzard watch: Boston and northern Rhode Island. Twelve to 24 inches on every model with 30 inches not out of the question. | The place where I feel most confident in amounts is basically that zone under the blizzard watch: Boston and northern Rhode Island. Twelve to 24 inches on every model with 30 inches not out of the question. |
| Eastern Maine, southern New England and far eastern Long Island. Most of Connecticut, central Massachusetts, eastern Maine, and southern New Hampshire are fairly likely to get at least 10-20 inches with two feet not out of the question. | Eastern Maine, southern New England and far eastern Long Island. Most of Connecticut, central Massachusetts, eastern Maine, and southern New Hampshire are fairly likely to get at least 10-20 inches with two feet not out of the question. |
| Most of the areas on the southern shorelines of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts as well as far eastern Long Island could mix with rain on Friday afternoon into early Friday evening before turning completely to snow. Still, nine to 18 inches in these places is the best bet right now. | Most of the areas on the southern shorelines of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts as well as far eastern Long Island could mix with rain on Friday afternoon into early Friday evening before turning completely to snow. Still, nine to 18 inches in these places is the best bet right now. |
| All these areas and the New York City area are in line for very strong winds. That's why there is a blizzard – instead of a winter storm – watch in many areas and high-wind watches in others. Sustained winds of at least 20mph with gusts up to and over 60mph seem quite possible, especially near the shore, at the height of the storm as the low pressure gets cranking. | All these areas and the New York City area are in line for very strong winds. That's why there is a blizzard – instead of a winter storm – watch in many areas and high-wind watches in others. Sustained winds of at least 20mph with gusts up to and over 60mph seem quite possible, especially near the shore, at the height of the storm as the low pressure gets cranking. |
| Where I don't feel confident | Where I don't feel confident |
| The other areas including most of central New York, northern New England, northern New Jersey, and New York are where the question marks start appearing. It seems entirely possible that New York City, for instance, could get either six or 18 inches. | The other areas including most of central New York, northern New England, northern New Jersey, and New York are where the question marks start appearing. It seems entirely possible that New York City, for instance, could get either six or 18 inches. |
| Why I don't feel confident in central and western New York, New York City, and northern New England | Why I don't feel confident in central and western New York, New York City, and northern New England |
| This storm is two pieces of energy coming together. One piece is in the northern stream. You see it now in from Nebraska to Iowa. The other piece is in the southern stream causing tremendous thunderstorms along the gulf shore. | This storm is two pieces of energy coming together. One piece is in the northern stream. You see it now in from Nebraska to Iowa. The other piece is in the southern stream causing tremendous thunderstorms along the gulf shore. |
| The northern piece will continue to move to the west and eventually to somewhere between north-eastern Ohio and western New York. This northern energy will merge at this point with the southern energy that will be coming off the Carolina coastline and gliding up the coast. | The northern piece will continue to move to the west and eventually to somewhere between north-eastern Ohio and western New York. This northern energy will merge at this point with the southern energy that will be coming off the Carolina coastline and gliding up the coast. |
| The key is for when that southern piece will become dominant. The earlier it does, the further west the storm will end up, the faster any warm air that could flood the New York and southern New England coastline shuts off, and the higher snow amounts will occur in the New York metropolitan area, central New York, and most of northern New England. Most of western New York will receive its greatest amounts if the northern piece of energy remains dominant longer. | The key is for when that southern piece will become dominant. The earlier it does, the further west the storm will end up, the faster any warm air that could flood the New York and southern New England coastline shuts off, and the higher snow amounts will occur in the New York metropolitan area, central New York, and most of northern New England. Most of western New York will receive its greatest amounts if the northern piece of energy remains dominant longer. |
| At this point, we don't know how the pieces of energy will interact. The 0z European model for instance has the highest amounts in New York City with even amounts up to two feet not out of the question. The 0z Global Forecasting System (GFS) has only about four to eight inches, though the afternoon 18z run was closer to the Euro. | At this point, we don't know how the pieces of energy will interact. The 0z European model for instance has the highest amounts in New York City with even amounts up to two feet not out of the question. The 0z Global Forecasting System (GFS) has only about four to eight inches, though the afternoon 18z run was closer to the Euro. |
| The cluster of models leans towards that lower amount. That said, the European has a track record as one of the most accurate for storms in the north-east and is backed up by its ensembles (slight deviations of the model run to account for imperfections in measurement). | The cluster of models leans towards that lower amount. That said, the European has a track record as one of the most accurate for storms in the north-east and is backed up by its ensembles (slight deviations of the model run to account for imperfections in measurement). |
| What's the safest bet in central and western New York, New York City, northern New England | What's the safest bet in central and western New York, New York City, northern New England |
| Six to 12 inches in New York City and its immediate suburbs with some rain mixing in during the day on Friday. Most of the northern and western suburbs including northern New Jersey look in line for nine to 18 inches. Central New Jersey is closer to five to 10 inches. If the European model is right, these amounts go up and the chance of rain mixing in goes down. | Six to 12 inches in New York City and its immediate suburbs with some rain mixing in during the day on Friday. Most of the northern and western suburbs including northern New Jersey look in line for nine to 18 inches. Central New Jersey is closer to five to 10 inches. If the European model is right, these amounts go up and the chance of rain mixing in goes down. |
| Northern and far western New England as well as central New York should be in line for eight to 16 inches. There is a chance these amounts could go up, though I feel a lot more confidence than in New York City. | Northern and far western New England as well as central New York should be in line for eight to 16 inches. There is a chance these amounts could go up, though I feel a lot more confidence than in New York City. |
| Western New York is looking at six to 12 inches with some sleet mixing in possible. | Western New York is looking at six to 12 inches with some sleet mixing in possible. |
| Stay tuned | Stay tuned |
| Clearly, there are still questions as to the storm's path. I'll update more as we get into the afternoon hours today. I'll also be hosting a question and answer session with two meteorologists at 2pm ET to answer your questions. | Clearly, there are still questions as to the storm's path. I'll update more as we get into the afternoon hours today. I'll also be hosting a question and answer session with two meteorologists at 2pm ET to answer your questions. |
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