This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen
on .
It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
Eastleigh by-election: Tories show three-point lead over Lib Dems
Removed because of broken embargo: Eastleigh byelection: Tories show three-point lead over Lib Dems
(about 1 hour later)
The Liberal Democrats look to have a tough job on their hands to retain Chris Huhne's seat in the Eastleigh by-election after a starting-pistol poll put them three points down on the Conservatives, largely due to a defection of some of their supporters to Labour.
This story broke an embargo. It will be relaunched at midnight.
The survey, conducted on 4 and 5 February by the former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Michael Ashcroft, suggests the Lib Dems will have to work hard to save the seat, mainly by clawing back the Labour vote, and chiefly by arguing only they can defeat the Tories.
The contest, on 28 February, is likely to be a microcosm of the general election battles that lie ahead in the 20 or so Lib Dem-held seats facing a serious challenge from the Conservatives. David Cameron needs to show his party he can win these seats if he is to convince them he can win an overall majority.
It is also clear that the Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, due to visit the constituency next week, will come under pressure to do more to distance his party from Huhne, the former energy secretary who quit as an MP after admitting he lied for nearly 10 years about a speeding offence.
The poll shows the Conservatives on 34%, the Lib Dems on 31% and Labour on 19%. The UK Independence party (Ukip) is fourth with 13%. The figures reveal a 16-point fall in the Lib Dem vote since the 2010 general election, and nine-point rises for both Labour and Ukip.
Voters appear to rate Cameron as the best man to run the economy, but do support the Lib Dems' performance locally. The Labour vote is the softest and most likely to go to the Lib Dems, Ashcroft suggests.
Labour HQ is likely to be disappointed they do not start the campaign closer to the other two main parties since Eastleigh is a seat in which they have come second in the past. It is impossible to tell how much of the Lib Dems' fall is due to discontent with Huhne's behaviour, or a wider disenchantment with the party's performance in government.
Clegg effectively launched the Lib Dem campaign on Thursday with an attack on the Tories for not doing more to tax the super rich – a position designed to appeal to lost Labour voters. Clegg was also accused of leaking the claim that he had forced the education secretary, Michael Gove, to drop his plans to reform GCSEs. One of his special advisers was also forced to apologise for using Cabinet Office emails to send out material on the by election.
Fears that the campaign could disrupt the Westminster coalition is one reason Clegg has called for a quick campaign. Clegg said he hoped it would "not be conducted in a mood or spirit of retribution".
But he also needs to show he has influence over the direction of coalition policy – especially on tax, the issue the Lib Dems have chosen to campaign on. Just over a fifth of Lib Dem voters think their party has much influence within the coalition; indeed Tory voters are more than twice as likely to believe Clegg is influential than his own supporters.
The Tory chairman, Grant Shapps, has already said that the people of Eastleigh had been "sold a lie" by Huhne. On a phone-in Clegg also came under pressure to call for the former Lib Dem minister to give back the £17,000 severance pay.
Speaking on LBC, he said: "At the end of the day, Chris Huhne has got to make that decision, but I totally understand why people think that now that he's pleaded guilty and when he's sentenced, that he should pay amends, if you like, for what's happened," he said.
Clegg, however, insisted that Huhne was a good constituency MP for many years. "Whatever the rights and wrongs of the court case, I think you will find that if you go to Eastleigh everyone recognises that he was an extremely hard-working local MP," he said.
"I am not going to provide a guesswork commentary on how the Conservatives want to fight the by-election. We will fight it, in part, on our record of commitment to serving the people of Eastleigh well."
