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| China reports better than expected trade data | China reports better than expected trade data |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| China has reported better-than-expected trade data, fuelling optimism that its economic growth may be rebounding from the recent slowdown. | China has reported better-than-expected trade data, fuelling optimism that its economic growth may be rebounding from the recent slowdown. |
| Exports, a key growth driver, surged 25% in January from a year earlier. Most analysts had forecast a 17% jump. | |
| Imports surged 28.8% indicating a robust pick up in domestic demand. | Imports surged 28.8% indicating a robust pick up in domestic demand. |
| China's growth rate slipped to 7.8% in 2012, the slowest annual pace since 1999, fuelling worries about the health of the world's second-largest economy. | China's growth rate slipped to 7.8% in 2012, the slowest annual pace since 1999, fuelling worries about the health of the world's second-largest economy. |
| "China's economic conditions are improving and the trade data confirms the continuation of a recovery trend," said Hirokazu Yuihama, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities. | "China's economic conditions are improving and the trade data confirms the continuation of a recovery trend," said Hirokazu Yuihama, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities. |
| "Not just the trade data but retail, production and investment flows clearly show that the economy bottomed out in the third quarter last year." | "Not just the trade data but retail, production and investment flows clearly show that the economy bottomed out in the third quarter last year." |
| Holiday season distortion? | |
| However, some analysts said that the figures for January were distorted by the change in the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year. | |
| The New Year celebrations see factories and businesses in China being shut for many days impacting production of goods. | |
| Last year, the Lunar year was celebrated in January, while this year it is being observed in February. | |
| Analysts said that this meant that factories operated for more days in January this year than in 2012. | |
| "The timing of Chinese New Year played a very important role," said Tao Wang, an economist with UBS in Hong Kong. | |
| "It's always difficult to predict the exact strength [of the trade numbers], given the number of working days." | |
| Recovery | |
| She added that the Lunar New Year also impacted on the import numbers as companies restock ahead of the celebrations. | |
| However, other analysts said that while the change in timing of the New Year celebrations did have an impact on the numbers, the overall trend was that of a recovery in the Chinese economy. | |
| "After controlling for the Chinese New Year, the numbers are still very strong and shows the economic recovery is on track," said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura. | |
| "Both imports and exports are about five to eight percentage points above market expectations, so it is a pretty strong showing." |