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Scotland: Britain's real referendum Scotland: Britain's real referendum
(7 months later)
It is about time that British politics got real about the referendum. Not the hypothetical referendum on the European Union that may or not take place in five years, depending on the outcome of the 2015 general election. Instead, the real referendum that should be concentrating political minds throughout Britain is the one that will definitely take place next year, irrespective of any election, to settle whether Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom or breaks away from it.It is about time that British politics got real about the referendum. Not the hypothetical referendum on the European Union that may or not take place in five years, depending on the outcome of the 2015 general election. Instead, the real referendum that should be concentrating political minds throughout Britain is the one that will definitely take place next year, irrespective of any election, to settle whether Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom or breaks away from it.
Bit by bit the arguments and terrain for the 2014 referendum vote are taking sharper shape. Two weeks ago, the Electoral Commission's proposals for the question to be put to Scots were agreed. Last week, the Scottish government produced an unimpressive plan for the transition – if there is one – between a vote for independence next year and the break from Britain planned for 2016. At the weekend, David Cameron made a relatively rare foray into the Scottish debate with a statement opposing independence. On Monday, the UK government is publishing legal advice about the international law aspects of what the nationalist government plans to do. Meanwhile the SNP is counterattacking with the launch of its own report on economic options. Next month, the exact date of the autumn 2014 referendum will be announced.Bit by bit the arguments and terrain for the 2014 referendum vote are taking sharper shape. Two weeks ago, the Electoral Commission's proposals for the question to be put to Scots were agreed. Last week, the Scottish government produced an unimpressive plan for the transition – if there is one – between a vote for independence next year and the break from Britain planned for 2016. At the weekend, David Cameron made a relatively rare foray into the Scottish debate with a statement opposing independence. On Monday, the UK government is publishing legal advice about the international law aspects of what the nationalist government plans to do. Meanwhile the SNP is counterattacking with the launch of its own report on economic options. Next month, the exact date of the autumn 2014 referendum will be announced.
Though there is lots going on, it is all taking place in a difficult political climate for Alex Salmond's Scottish government and the SNP. The SNP's electoral triumph in Scotland in 2011 has proved to be a double-edged claymore. On the one hand SNP success gave the independence cause the greatest opportunity of its lifetime, that of putting Scotland's national future to the vote. On the other, it compelled the SNP to fight a set-piece political battle about the single issue of independence, which the opinion polls consistently show is not supported by most Scots. Over the past year, the SNP has struggled to translate its dominance of Scottish party politics into an equivalent momentum on the independence issue. By and large, the polls on Scotland's future have not shifted. In spite of all Mr Salmond's efforts, he looks at the moment to be leading his clans to defeat.Though there is lots going on, it is all taking place in a difficult political climate for Alex Salmond's Scottish government and the SNP. The SNP's electoral triumph in Scotland in 2011 has proved to be a double-edged claymore. On the one hand SNP success gave the independence cause the greatest opportunity of its lifetime, that of putting Scotland's national future to the vote. On the other, it compelled the SNP to fight a set-piece political battle about the single issue of independence, which the opinion polls consistently show is not supported by most Scots. Over the past year, the SNP has struggled to translate its dominance of Scottish party politics into an equivalent momentum on the independence issue. By and large, the polls on Scotland's future have not shifted. In spite of all Mr Salmond's efforts, he looks at the moment to be leading his clans to defeat.
This could change, particularly if Scots begin to feel that Labour is faltering and Mr Cameron is heading for a second term in 2015. The important point to grasp, however, is that everything that happens in UK politics at the moment has some potential to shape the dynamics of the independence battle in Scotland. Party leaders need to factor this into their actions and statements more than they do. The EU is an example. Mr Cameron promises an in-out referendum in 2017-18. But what if Scots, who like the EU, become fearful that Little England voters will sweep them out of Europe against their will? That's certainly what the SNP will try to claim. It is doubtful whether Mr Cameron has thought about this. He and all other UK party leaders need to be much more attentive to the Scottish dimension. That will remain the case, whatever the result in autumn 2014.This could change, particularly if Scots begin to feel that Labour is faltering and Mr Cameron is heading for a second term in 2015. The important point to grasp, however, is that everything that happens in UK politics at the moment has some potential to shape the dynamics of the independence battle in Scotland. Party leaders need to factor this into their actions and statements more than they do. The EU is an example. Mr Cameron promises an in-out referendum in 2017-18. But what if Scots, who like the EU, become fearful that Little England voters will sweep them out of Europe against their will? That's certainly what the SNP will try to claim. It is doubtful whether Mr Cameron has thought about this. He and all other UK party leaders need to be much more attentive to the Scottish dimension. That will remain the case, whatever the result in autumn 2014.
At the moment, Mr Salmond is playing defence, not attack, over Europe. Last year he was badly damaged by appearing shifty over whether an independent Scotland could seamlessly acquire membership of the EU and other international bodies, as the SNP claimed it could. The legal advice published by the UK government is emphatic that Scotland could not, that it would have to negotiate that status afresh, while the rest of the UK inherited the existing membership. If that advice is sound, it is another big setback for Mr Salmond's already faltering cause.At the moment, Mr Salmond is playing defence, not attack, over Europe. Last year he was badly damaged by appearing shifty over whether an independent Scotland could seamlessly acquire membership of the EU and other international bodies, as the SNP claimed it could. The legal advice published by the UK government is emphatic that Scotland could not, that it would have to negotiate that status afresh, while the rest of the UK inherited the existing membership. If that advice is sound, it is another big setback for Mr Salmond's already faltering cause.
The outcome in 2014 is not a done deal. It would be extremely foolish to assume that the result is beyond doubt. Right now, the momentum is with the opponents of independence, while the SNP struggles to fire a mood that independence is both desirable and irresistible. But there is a long way to go and every day is a skirmish in the larger contest. Monday's events emphatically confirm that. And there are many more such days to come.The outcome in 2014 is not a done deal. It would be extremely foolish to assume that the result is beyond doubt. Right now, the momentum is with the opponents of independence, while the SNP struggles to fire a mood that independence is both desirable and irresistible. But there is a long way to go and every day is a skirmish in the larger contest. Monday's events emphatically confirm that. And there are many more such days to come.
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