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Wonder at a poll showing a large Labour lead, then look at the big picture Wonder at a poll showing a large Labour lead, then look at the big picture
(7 months later)
You occasionally hear politicos saying they don't pay attention to polls. This seems to happen more with American politicians than British ones, so perhaps they're not lying exactly, just silently adding the rider "I have staff to do that for me".You occasionally hear politicos saying they don't pay attention to polls. This seems to happen more with American politicians than British ones, so perhaps they're not lying exactly, just silently adding the rider "I have staff to do that for me".
Pah to them. Like any self-respecting political obsessive, I pay lots of attention to polls. Headlines, internals, trends, issues, leader numbers: they all play a role in the algebra of working out exactly what the public think and what they might think in future. The Guardian/ICM poll showing Ed Miliband's party with a 12-point lead over the Tories had me bouncing excitedly up and down on my chair.Pah to them. Like any self-respecting political obsessive, I pay lots of attention to polls. Headlines, internals, trends, issues, leader numbers: they all play a role in the algebra of working out exactly what the public think and what they might think in future. The Guardian/ICM poll showing Ed Miliband's party with a 12-point lead over the Tories had me bouncing excitedly up and down on my chair.
I don't believe political parties should simply base their decisions on what polls tell them, though.I don't believe political parties should simply base their decisions on what polls tell them, though.
A politician's attitudes to polls should be like a poker player's attitude to their pile of gambling chips: it's a way of keeping score. How much you've got at the moment doesn't really matter, only what you've got when it's time to cash out. Just as a single hand of cards doesn't matter too much, I try not to get excited by a single poll, no matter how good, or bad. There'll be another one along in a minute.A politician's attitudes to polls should be like a poker player's attitude to their pile of gambling chips: it's a way of keeping score. How much you've got at the moment doesn't really matter, only what you've got when it's time to cash out. Just as a single hand of cards doesn't matter too much, I try not to get excited by a single poll, no matter how good, or bad. There'll be another one along in a minute.
Last week, one YouGov poll had Labour up 15 points on the Tories. A few days later, the same pollster had Labour ahead only eight points. Had Labour support collapsed? No, it was most likely just noise, the natural inaccuracy of focusing on a single data point.Last week, one YouGov poll had Labour up 15 points on the Tories. A few days later, the same pollster had Labour ahead only eight points. Had Labour support collapsed? No, it was most likely just noise, the natural inaccuracy of focusing on a single data point.
That's why I like to threaten friends who get excited by a single poll result with a slap in the face by the "look at the trends" haddock. As you can imagine, this means a) I have odd friends, and b) this patronising attitude to them makes me beloved.That's why I like to threaten friends who get excited by a single poll result with a slap in the face by the "look at the trends" haddock. As you can imagine, this means a) I have odd friends, and b) this patronising attitude to them makes me beloved.
This "only look at the trends" attitude can be a little annoying, especially for journalists. After all, the Guardian pays good money for accurate, high-quality polling. So when this finally produces an interesting result, as the latest ICM/Guardian poll did, it seems a little rude of those of us in the pocket-protector brigade to tut and say "probably meaningless unless confirmed by data elsewhere".This "only look at the trends" attitude can be a little annoying, especially for journalists. After all, the Guardian pays good money for accurate, high-quality polling. So when this finally produces an interesting result, as the latest ICM/Guardian poll did, it seems a little rude of those of us in the pocket-protector brigade to tut and say "probably meaningless unless confirmed by data elsewhere".
What's more, sometimes the results almost demand particular attention. This ICM poll got me interested for two reasons. First, it showed Labour with its largest lead with the ICM pollsters for a decade. That's a long time.What's more, sometimes the results almost demand particular attention. This ICM poll got me interested for two reasons. First, it showed Labour with its largest lead with the ICM pollsters for a decade. That's a long time.
Just as significant is the pollster. ICM has tended to show slightly smaller Labour leads than other pollsters, so when it produces a poll with a really big Labour lead, it raises eyebrows. (There's a good discussion of the sorts of technical differences that can produce different results here)Just as significant is the pollster. ICM has tended to show slightly smaller Labour leads than other pollsters, so when it produces a poll with a really big Labour lead, it raises eyebrows. (There's a good discussion of the sorts of technical differences that can produce different results here)
Yet within 24 hours two other pollsters, YouGov and TNS-BMRB, released polls that respectively showed an Labour lead that was entirely average for that pollster and a small Tory gain. Boring normality returned, and with it the stable leads for Labour we've been seeing since the budget last year. Boo-hiss, etc.Yet within 24 hours two other pollsters, YouGov and TNS-BMRB, released polls that respectively showed an Labour lead that was entirely average for that pollster and a small Tory gain. Boring normality returned, and with it the stable leads for Labour we've been seeing since the budget last year. Boo-hiss, etc.
Before you decide never to read a news story about an opinion poll again, boring normality is a pretty interesting result too. Think about all the dogs that haven't barked. David Cameron's offer of a European referendum appears to have done nothing to reduce enthusiasm for Ukip. The return to negative growth hasn't seemed to shift any opinions. Nor, so far, has the horsemeat scandal, the bedroom tax, or the NHS scandal.Before you decide never to read a news story about an opinion poll again, boring normality is a pretty interesting result too. Think about all the dogs that haven't barked. David Cameron's offer of a European referendum appears to have done nothing to reduce enthusiasm for Ukip. The return to negative growth hasn't seemed to shift any opinions. Nor, so far, has the horsemeat scandal, the bedroom tax, or the NHS scandal.
Instead, the polls show a thudding stability, disguised by occasional outliers. This doesn't just apply to the headline figures. Take YouGov's trackers on who would make the best prime minister, which party is best on the issues, and the cuts.Instead, the polls show a thudding stability, disguised by occasional outliers. This doesn't just apply to the headline figures. Take YouGov's trackers on who would make the best prime minister, which party is best on the issues, and the cuts.
While there's been a small Tory recovery since their nadir over the summer, for the most part they show a pretty settled public view on everything from Cameron to the necessity of the cuts. With all the news, all the events, all the controversy, it's pretty damn interesting when nothing much is happening.While there's been a small Tory recovery since their nadir over the summer, for the most part they show a pretty settled public view on everything from Cameron to the necessity of the cuts. With all the news, all the events, all the controversy, it's pretty damn interesting when nothing much is happening.
I'd argue that the only lasting shift in the last two years came after the 2012 budget and the double-dip recession, which combined to convince many voters that the Conservatives were out of touch, unfair and not even working all that well. This led directly to the last year of decent Labour leads.I'd argue that the only lasting shift in the last two years came after the 2012 budget and the double-dip recession, which combined to convince many voters that the Conservatives were out of touch, unfair and not even working all that well. This led directly to the last year of decent Labour leads.
So perhaps jobs, growth and the economy isn't just an important issue, it's a King Kong of an issue, dominating everything around it and making other concerns seem irrelevant. If that's the case, it explains both the Conservatives' steady weakness: they've failed to deliver the growth they promised, and failed unfairly too. Speeches aren't going to shift that.So perhaps jobs, growth and the economy isn't just an important issue, it's a King Kong of an issue, dominating everything around it and making other concerns seem irrelevant. If that's the case, it explains both the Conservatives' steady weakness: they've failed to deliver the growth they promised, and failed unfairly too. Speeches aren't going to shift that.
Yet it also explains a certain Labour nervousness. Growth hasn't come yet, but if it comes, then no one quite knows if it would sweep away Labour's strength too. In such a position, all parties can have their optimists. What's more, when no one is quite sure what will happen next, interesting times are almost guaranteed.Yet it also explains a certain Labour nervousness. Growth hasn't come yet, but if it comes, then no one quite knows if it would sweep away Labour's strength too. In such a position, all parties can have their optimists. What's more, when no one is quite sure what will happen next, interesting times are almost guaranteed.
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