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Democrats see a bright future in Obama's approval ratings Democrats see a bright future in Obama's approval ratings
(7 months later)
President Obama makes Tuesday's state of the union address with a very respectable approval rating just north of 50% – though there's chatter already that it won't last. HuffPollster shows signs of a less smoothing trend and Real Clear Politics has an average that indicates his approval has dropped a few points since its post-election high in late December.President Obama makes Tuesday's state of the union address with a very respectable approval rating just north of 50% – though there's chatter already that it won't last. HuffPollster shows signs of a less smoothing trend and Real Clear Politics has an average that indicates his approval has dropped a few points since its post-election high in late December.
But I would wager that his approval rating will stabilize – and perhaps even climb in the months and years to come. Why would I say such a thing? The factors that have derailed second-term presidents since the second world war – the economy, scandals, and wars – seem unlikely to trip up Obama.But I would wager that his approval rating will stabilize – and perhaps even climb in the months and years to come. Why would I say such a thing? The factors that have derailed second-term presidents since the second world war – the economy, scandals, and wars – seem unlikely to trip up Obama.
The economyThe economy
Presidents George W Bush and Eisenhower were done in by bad economies. The recession of 1958 shaved 15pt off Eisenhower's approval rating, from 70% to 55%, by the time that year's midterm elections rolled around. The first signs of the 2008 recession (along with growing opposition to the Iraq war) knocked Bush's approval from the low- to mid-40s into the mid-30s. Both presidents saw their parties lose more than 30 seats in the House and over 6 seats in the Senate during their second midterm elections. Two years after those midterms, the opposition party took back the White House.Presidents George W Bush and Eisenhower were done in by bad economies. The recession of 1958 shaved 15pt off Eisenhower's approval rating, from 70% to 55%, by the time that year's midterm elections rolled around. The first signs of the 2008 recession (along with growing opposition to the Iraq war) knocked Bush's approval from the low- to mid-40s into the mid-30s. Both presidents saw their parties lose more than 30 seats in the House and over 6 seats in the Senate during their second midterm elections. Two years after those midterms, the opposition party took back the White House.
In contrast, Obama's economy is expected to pick up steam. His biggest problem is that the current rate of growth isn't historically strong; and the time has passed when he could pin economic distress on the Bush administration. Many economic models predicted an incumbent victory in 2012, but also said that if his predecessor had been Democratic and had seen a similarly slow economy, Obama would have been defeated.In contrast, Obama's economy is expected to pick up steam. His biggest problem is that the current rate of growth isn't historically strong; and the time has passed when he could pin economic distress on the Bush administration. Many economic models predicted an incumbent victory in 2012, but also said that if his predecessor had been Democratic and had seen a similarly slow economy, Obama would have been defeated.
Fortunately for Obama, most forecasters also see the GDP hitting near 3% and the unemployment rate dropping to 7% in the next few years.Fortunately for Obama, most forecasters also see the GDP hitting near 3% and the unemployment rate dropping to 7% in the next few years.
ScandalsScandals
Presidents Clinton, Nixon, and Reagan were able to keep the economy going, but ran into scandals that marred their ratings. For each president, respectively, there was Monica Lewinsky, Watergate, and Iran-Contra. Clinton's favorables fell by 10pt into the upper-40s to low-50s, a drop that had immediate consequences for the Democrats. His lower approval damaged 2000 nominee Al Gore, who, by most accounts, should have won with the strong economy; voter choices were more closely linked to Clinton's "mixed favorables" than his strong approvals.Presidents Clinton, Nixon, and Reagan were able to keep the economy going, but ran into scandals that marred their ratings. For each president, respectively, there was Monica Lewinsky, Watergate, and Iran-Contra. Clinton's favorables fell by 10pt into the upper-40s to low-50s, a drop that had immediate consequences for the Democrats. His lower approval damaged 2000 nominee Al Gore, who, by most accounts, should have won with the strong economy; voter choices were more closely linked to Clinton's "mixed favorables" than his strong approvals.
Unlike Clinton, Nixon's approvals plunged over the course of 1973, from the 60s in January to the 20s by October. Watergate cost his party nearly 50 seats in the House, another four in the Senate, and prevented his successor Gerald Ford from getting his approvals out of the 40s for the rest of his term; Ford then lost to Jimmy Carter by 2pt in 1976.Unlike Clinton, Nixon's approvals plunged over the course of 1973, from the 60s in January to the 20s by October. Watergate cost his party nearly 50 seats in the House, another four in the Senate, and prevented his successor Gerald Ford from getting his approvals out of the 40s for the rest of his term; Ford then lost to Jimmy Carter by 2pt in 1976.
Thanks to the Iran-Contra affair, Reagan saw his 60% approval in late 1986 fall into the mid-40s in 1987, before it stabilized in the low-50s by the end of that year. He did manage to maintain net favorables of about +10pt or better as the 1988 election approached, which helped push Vice-President George HW Bush to victory by 8pt.Thanks to the Iran-Contra affair, Reagan saw his 60% approval in late 1986 fall into the mid-40s in 1987, before it stabilized in the low-50s by the end of that year. He did manage to maintain net favorables of about +10pt or better as the 1988 election approached, which helped push Vice-President George HW Bush to victory by 8pt.
Obama's administration has been squeaky clean by historical standards. In fact, he broke the record for (lack of) any scandal in the modern era, according to Brendan Nyhan's definition. The scandals that have occurred were the secret service prostitution ignominy in Colombia, the Solyndra failure, and, as Republicans have tried to define it, the attack in Benghazi. But President Obama hasn't really been linked in a personal way to any of these; overall, he enjoys a squeaky-clean record to take into his second term.Obama's administration has been squeaky clean by historical standards. In fact, he broke the record for (lack of) any scandal in the modern era, according to Brendan Nyhan's definition. The scandals that have occurred were the secret service prostitution ignominy in Colombia, the Solyndra failure, and, as Republicans have tried to define it, the attack in Benghazi. But President Obama hasn't really been linked in a personal way to any of these; overall, he enjoys a squeaky-clean record to take into his second term.
WarWar
Presidents Truman and Johnson fell into the war trap and squandered their chances to transform strong economies into high approval ratings. Truman saw his approval ratings plummet from the mid-50s to the mid-20s thanks to the Korean war, while LBJ's ratings slipped from the high-60s to the low-40s because of Vietnam. These drops corresponded with more than 25 lost seats in the House and over three lost seats in the Senate at the midterms. Neither president ever recovered, and both their parties subsequently lost the White House.Presidents Truman and Johnson fell into the war trap and squandered their chances to transform strong economies into high approval ratings. Truman saw his approval ratings plummet from the mid-50s to the mid-20s thanks to the Korean war, while LBJ's ratings slipped from the high-60s to the low-40s because of Vietnam. These drops corresponded with more than 25 lost seats in the House and over three lost seats in the Senate at the midterms. Neither president ever recovered, and both their parties subsequently lost the White House.
Obama has avoided major military fatalities in his first term. He's mostly closed out the occupation in Iraq, and the war in Afghanistan seems to finally be winding down. Looking ahead, there isn't any obvious prospect of another major military engagement. That's not only a good thing for our men and women serving overseas, but it's a good thing for Obama's standing – and his party's chances in the next few elections.Obama has avoided major military fatalities in his first term. He's mostly closed out the occupation in Iraq, and the war in Afghanistan seems to finally be winding down. Looking ahead, there isn't any obvious prospect of another major military engagement. That's not only a good thing for our men and women serving overseas, but it's a good thing for Obama's standing – and his party's chances in the next few elections.
ConclusionConclusion
So what's the second-term outlook for President Obama?So what's the second-term outlook for President Obama?
He seems well-prepared to sidestep the pitfalls that presidents usually encounter during their second terms. If he can avoid them, it should keep his positive rating above his negative. His relatively high approval could also keep Democratic midterm losses to a minimum and potentially help the next Democratic presidential nominee, who could use Obama's strong record as a platform.He seems well-prepared to sidestep the pitfalls that presidents usually encounter during their second terms. If he can avoid them, it should keep his positive rating above his negative. His relatively high approval could also keep Democratic midterm losses to a minimum and potentially help the next Democratic presidential nominee, who could use Obama's strong record as a platform.
There are certainly no guarantees when it comes to politics, but by historical standards, Obama and his party are in a good position for the next four years.There are certainly no guarantees when it comes to politics, but by historical standards, Obama and his party are in a good position for the next four years.
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