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| Mindanao peace process has a lot to achieve within a tight time limit | Mindanao peace process has a lot to achieve within a tight time limit |
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| That the peace process in Mindanao between the government and hardline Islamist terrorists has advanced as far as it has is owing to, in part, the personal commitment of Benigno Aquino, the Philippines president, officials and activists say. But his term ends in 2016. This time limit has become, in effect, a deadline for implementing a final settlement. | That the peace process in Mindanao between the government and hardline Islamist terrorists has advanced as far as it has is owing to, in part, the personal commitment of Benigno Aquino, the Philippines president, officials and activists say. But his term ends in 2016. This time limit has become, in effect, a deadline for implementing a final settlement. |
| Aquino, son of the former president, Corazon Aquino, tapped his personal popularity to revive talks that had flickered on and off for years, and had been punctuated by periods of extreme violence. His surprise face-to-face meeting in Tokyo in 2011 with his chief opponent, Ibrahim Murad, leader of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), provided much needed momentum. | Aquino, son of the former president, Corazon Aquino, tapped his personal popularity to revive talks that had flickered on and off for years, and had been punctuated by periods of extreme violence. His surprise face-to-face meeting in Tokyo in 2011 with his chief opponent, Ibrahim Murad, leader of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), provided much needed momentum. |
| The president is said to view a peace deal with the Catholic Philippines' much discriminated against southern Muslim minority as his key legacy. By pursuing a pragmatic, inclusive approach – Benigno Aquino insists nothing is agreed that cannot be delivered – he has so far avoided his mother's mistake. Her 1987 creation, the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), was imposed from above and became a byword for inefficiency and corruption. Crucially, it did not stop the war. | The president is said to view a peace deal with the Catholic Philippines' much discriminated against southern Muslim minority as his key legacy. By pursuing a pragmatic, inclusive approach – Benigno Aquino insists nothing is agreed that cannot be delivered – he has so far avoided his mother's mistake. Her 1987 creation, the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), was imposed from above and became a byword for inefficiency and corruption. Crucially, it did not stop the war. |
| The new polity envisaged for the Muslim areas of central and western Mindanao, to be known as the Bangsamoro (land of the Moro), will have considerable autonomous powers, including raising taxes and a police force. It will be run by elected ministers operating on parliamentary lines, in contrast to Manila's presidential system. | The new polity envisaged for the Muslim areas of central and western Mindanao, to be known as the Bangsamoro (land of the Moro), will have considerable autonomous powers, including raising taxes and a police force. It will be run by elected ministers operating on parliamentary lines, in contrast to Manila's presidential system. |
| But whether the advent of the Bangsamoro can cement a lasting settlement remains an open question. Even assuming a basic law is agreed, the congress in Manila consents, the national constitution is amended, and the MILF honours its pledge to place combatants and weapons "beyond use", numerous obstacles remain. | But whether the advent of the Bangsamoro can cement a lasting settlement remains an open question. Even assuming a basic law is agreed, the congress in Manila consents, the national constitution is amended, and the MILF honours its pledge to place combatants and weapons "beyond use", numerous obstacles remain. |
| Perhaps the most formidable is under-development. Decades of conflict have impoverished Muslim areas. Poverty rates in the ARMM are 45.4%, nearly double the national average of 24.4%, according to the charity Oxfam. A massive infusion of funds is now required. Aquino is promising just that, and will unveil a big new sustainable investment programme during a visit to Mindanao this week. | Perhaps the most formidable is under-development. Decades of conflict have impoverished Muslim areas. Poverty rates in the ARMM are 45.4%, nearly double the national average of 24.4%, according to the charity Oxfam. A massive infusion of funds is now required. Aquino is promising just that, and will unveil a big new sustainable investment programme during a visit to Mindanao this week. |
| How to settle vexed land disputes over "ancestral domain", how to decide exactly which areas or "sultanates" will be included in the Bangsamoro, and how best to manage and share Mindanao's significant energy and mineral resources are all issues the peace process is addressing but is unlikely fully to resolve. | How to settle vexed land disputes over "ancestral domain", how to decide exactly which areas or "sultanates" will be included in the Bangsamoro, and how best to manage and share Mindanao's significant energy and mineral resources are all issues the peace process is addressing but is unlikely fully to resolve. |
| Non-Muslim indigenous peoples in Mindanao, known as the Lumad or Bangsa-Mamalu, and the Catholic settler population that moved there from Luzon in the early 20th century, worry that a new Muslim-led government will override their concerns. | Non-Muslim indigenous peoples in Mindanao, known as the Lumad or Bangsa-Mamalu, and the Catholic settler population that moved there from Luzon in the early 20th century, worry that a new Muslim-led government will override their concerns. |
| "Our main wish is that we have peace in our area, because war leads to hunger. Also we would like a new road," says Rodel Miguel, head of remote Ranao Pilayan village, a Tenduray tribal settlement in Maguindanao province comprising avowed Pentecostalists. "We have no choice, we have to support the [Bangsamoro] agreement. The MILF has promised they will not ignore our rights. Do we trust them? No, we don't!" | "Our main wish is that we have peace in our area, because war leads to hunger. Also we would like a new road," says Rodel Miguel, head of remote Ranao Pilayan village, a Tenduray tribal settlement in Maguindanao province comprising avowed Pentecostalists. "We have no choice, we have to support the [Bangsamoro] agreement. The MILF has promised they will not ignore our rights. Do we trust them? No, we don't!" |
| MILF splinter groups, armed cadres of the communist New People's Army who remain at war with the central government, and Islamist extremists holed up in the Sulu archipelago all pose potential threats to a lasting peace. So, too, does the bloody tradition of "rido", meaning clan warfare and inter-communal vendettas. | MILF splinter groups, armed cadres of the communist New People's Army who remain at war with the central government, and Islamist extremists holed up in the Sulu archipelago all pose potential threats to a lasting peace. So, too, does the bloody tradition of "rido", meaning clan warfare and inter-communal vendettas. |
| "The lack of a political agreement encouraged local clans, family fiefdoms and strongmen to take power into their own hands," says Snehal Soneji, Oxfam's country director. "The conflict was not ideological. It was about resources." These frictions may increase rather than decrease as peace takes hold and Mindanao's riches become more easily exploited. | "The lack of a political agreement encouraged local clans, family fiefdoms and strongmen to take power into their own hands," says Snehal Soneji, Oxfam's country director. "The conflict was not ideological. It was about resources." These frictions may increase rather than decrease as peace takes hold and Mindanao's riches become more easily exploited. |
| Guiamel Alim of ARMM Watch, an NGO in Davao City, predicts the mistakes associated with Muslim self-governance in the ARMM would be avoided. "It will be better this time. Even when the political revolution is finished, the cultural revolution will continue. We want the Bangsamoro to be open to civil society participation," he says. | Guiamel Alim of ARMM Watch, an NGO in Davao City, predicts the mistakes associated with Muslim self-governance in the ARMM would be avoided. "It will be better this time. Even when the political revolution is finished, the cultural revolution will continue. We want the Bangsamoro to be open to civil society participation," he says. |
| But Alim admitted many aspects of the new arrangements were still up in the air. "It's all still very risky … There is long-held prejudice against the Muslim population. This was taught by the Spanish and the Americans. | But Alim admitted many aspects of the new arrangements were still up in the air. "It's all still very risky … There is long-held prejudice against the Muslim population. This was taught by the Spanish and the Americans. |
| "I think it [the peace process] should lead to national reconciliation and unity. This is the last and the best chance for peace in Mindanao … But we have a long history of betrayal by Manila. They [the armed groups] won't be shouting if it fails. They will be shooting with their firearms!" | "I think it [the peace process] should lead to national reconciliation and unity. This is the last and the best chance for peace in Mindanao … But we have a long history of betrayal by Manila. They [the armed groups] won't be shouting if it fails. They will be shooting with their firearms!" |
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