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Why the consensual Barack Obama is becoming confrontational Why the consensual Barack Obama is becoming confrontational
(7 months later)
The recent school shootings shocked America to its core, setting off an anguished national debate. So the second-term Democrat in the White House felt bold enough to call for fresh gun laws in his state of the union speech. And, knowing that Congress was hostile, he decided to use the televised address to appeal over its head to the voters at home.The recent school shootings shocked America to its core, setting off an anguished national debate. So the second-term Democrat in the White House felt bold enough to call for fresh gun laws in his state of the union speech. And, knowing that Congress was hostile, he decided to use the televised address to appeal over its head to the voters at home.
To give his message maximum impact, the president invited some of the parents of the murdered schoolchildren to sit in the galleries. So, when he reached the issue of guns, he gestured up to the emotional relatives and called on Congress to give them justice, knowing that even his most bitter opponents would have to applaud with respect.To give his message maximum impact, the president invited some of the parents of the murdered schoolchildren to sit in the galleries. So, when he reached the issue of guns, he gestured up to the emotional relatives and called on Congress to give them justice, knowing that even his most bitter opponents would have to applaud with respect.
That's what Barack Obama memorably did on Tuesday night, forcing even the most implacable congressional opponents of gun laws to stand and applaud the parents of Hadiya Pendleton, a 15-year-old Chicago girl who was shot dead two weeks ago, two months after the Newtown school massacre. It was without question the emotional climax of Obama's speech, and it has already been much replayed.That's what Barack Obama memorably did on Tuesday night, forcing even the most implacable congressional opponents of gun laws to stand and applaud the parents of Hadiya Pendleton, a 15-year-old Chicago girl who was shot dead two weeks ago, two months after the Newtown school massacre. It was without question the emotional climax of Obama's speech, and it has already been much replayed.
But it's also precisely what Bill Clinton did in his state of the union speech 13 years ago. That was when, following the Columbine school shootings in Colorado in 1999, Clinton called for fresh gun curbs. At a key moment in his speech he too compelled a hostile Congress to rise, this time for the parents of Daniel Mauser, another senselessly slain 15-year-old whose death had transformed his grieving parents into gun law-reform campaigners.But it's also precisely what Bill Clinton did in his state of the union speech 13 years ago. That was when, following the Columbine school shootings in Colorado in 1999, Clinton called for fresh gun curbs. At a key moment in his speech he too compelled a hostile Congress to rise, this time for the parents of Daniel Mauser, another senselessly slain 15-year-old whose death had transformed his grieving parents into gun law-reform campaigners.
The result of Clinton's powerful piece of political theatre, however, was a great big legislative nothing. In January 2000, Congress applauded, sat down, and was unmoved. From that day to this, US gun laws have been unchanged.The result of Clinton's powerful piece of political theatre, however, was a great big legislative nothing. In January 2000, Congress applauded, sat down, and was unmoved. From that day to this, US gun laws have been unchanged.
Clinton's failure does not prove Obama's reform will fail too. But it is a reminder it might. Obama has the votes for gun-law reform in the Senate, just as Clinton had. But the Republican-controlled House is hostile, now as before. Perhaps the re-elected Obama may have more political momentum in his favour than Clinton did in the aftermath of his partisan impeachment proceedings. And while sometimes history repeats itself, other times it doesn't.Looked at from abroad, it is tempting to see gun reform, seemingly so self-evident a reform to liberal Europeans, as a central issue for Obama's second term. This seems naive, for two closely connected reasons.Clinton's failure does not prove Obama's reform will fail too. But it is a reminder it might. Obama has the votes for gun-law reform in the Senate, just as Clinton had. But the Republican-controlled House is hostile, now as before. Perhaps the re-elected Obama may have more political momentum in his favour than Clinton did in the aftermath of his partisan impeachment proceedings. And while sometimes history repeats itself, other times it doesn't.Looked at from abroad, it is tempting to see gun reform, seemingly so self-evident a reform to liberal Europeans, as a central issue for Obama's second term. This seems naive, for two closely connected reasons.
The first is the nature of the Republican congressional majority in Washington. Elected on the same day as Obama was re-elected to the White House, the Republicans owe their majority to the intense gerrymandering of congressional districts by Republican controlled state legislatures after 2010. As a result of it, while the Democrats won the popular vote in the House of Representatives by a margin of 1.4m votes in November, the Republicans won a clear majority of 33 in seats. In several states won by Obama, the Republicans took the lion's share of congressional seats by these means – for instance, 13 out of 18 in Pennsylvania, 12 out of 16 in Ohio and eight out of 11 in Virginia.The first is the nature of the Republican congressional majority in Washington. Elected on the same day as Obama was re-elected to the White House, the Republicans owe their majority to the intense gerrymandering of congressional districts by Republican controlled state legislatures after 2010. As a result of it, while the Democrats won the popular vote in the House of Representatives by a margin of 1.4m votes in November, the Republicans won a clear majority of 33 in seats. In several states won by Obama, the Republicans took the lion's share of congressional seats by these means – for instance, 13 out of 18 in Pennsylvania, 12 out of 16 in Ohio and eight out of 11 in Virginia.
This means, as Michael Tomasky recently argued, that larger than usual numbers of Republicans in the current Congress represent districts that Democrats have little chance of winning. Only 15 Republicans out of 234 sit for districts that Obama won in 2012. As a result, they are under less pressure to behave in a moderate way and under much greater pressure to please the Republican right. As Tomasky points out, it all adds up to a political structure within the Republican party that rewards obstruction and regards compromise with Obama not as reasonable trading but as treachery.This means, as Michael Tomasky recently argued, that larger than usual numbers of Republicans in the current Congress represent districts that Democrats have little chance of winning. Only 15 Republicans out of 234 sit for districts that Obama won in 2012. As a result, they are under less pressure to behave in a moderate way and under much greater pressure to please the Republican right. As Tomasky points out, it all adds up to a political structure within the Republican party that rewards obstruction and regards compromise with Obama not as reasonable trading but as treachery.
That is likely to mean bad news for gun-law reform or for the climate change agenda, which also loomed large in Obama's speech. But these feel like second-order issues for the second term. Obama's speech covered a vast array of subjects, but it concentrated on very few of them. There was little of significance on foreign policy, for instance, with the striking exception of a US-EU trade deal – which anti-European Tories should reflect on very carefully.That is likely to mean bad news for gun-law reform or for the climate change agenda, which also loomed large in Obama's speech. But these feel like second-order issues for the second term. Obama's speech covered a vast array of subjects, but it concentrated on very few of them. There was little of significance on foreign policy, for instance, with the striking exception of a US-EU trade deal – which anti-European Tories should reflect on very carefully.
But the big issue is federal spending. This is the subject that makes both sides get out of bed. For Obama, as the speech made clear, it means stimulus, investment in infrastructure, and taxing the rich. For the Republicans it means cutting the federal government, except defence spending, with large spending cuts and lower taxes. Two fundamentally different ways of looking at the economy and the role of government are locked in a battle for supremacy that was not, as it now turns out, resolved at the ballot box in November.But the big issue is federal spending. This is the subject that makes both sides get out of bed. For Obama, as the speech made clear, it means stimulus, investment in infrastructure, and taxing the rich. For the Republicans it means cutting the federal government, except defence spending, with large spending cuts and lower taxes. Two fundamentally different ways of looking at the economy and the role of government are locked in a battle for supremacy that was not, as it now turns out, resolved at the ballot box in November.
For both sides, March's second round of the battle over federal spending is now front and centre. Obama may win some sort of limited victory in March, just as he won the earlier contest at the top of the so-called fiscal cliff in the new year. Whether it will be a conclusive victory, defining the course of governmental action for the rest of his presidency and beyond, is even less predictable. But this week's speech matters because it was his biggest opportunity to shape that confrontation.For both sides, March's second round of the battle over federal spending is now front and centre. Obama may win some sort of limited victory in March, just as he won the earlier contest at the top of the so-called fiscal cliff in the new year. Whether it will be a conclusive victory, defining the course of governmental action for the rest of his presidency and beyond, is even less predictable. But this week's speech matters because it was his biggest opportunity to shape that confrontation.
Obama's great unresolved problem is how to translate his electoral victory into effective and sustainable legislative action. His underlying problem is that American democracy, as the political scientist David Runciman argued in a powerful London Review of Books lecture this week, is in the kind of crisis from which it has normally only been able to extricate itself in time of war or depression. But what kind of times does America currently live in? The leitmotiv of Obama's speech was that it is time to get important but actually quite modest things done. But the constitution is not on his side, and American voters may not be as resolutely committed to him as he wants either. Energising them about gun control is a means to that larger end.Obama's great unresolved problem is how to translate his electoral victory into effective and sustainable legislative action. His underlying problem is that American democracy, as the political scientist David Runciman argued in a powerful London Review of Books lecture this week, is in the kind of crisis from which it has normally only been able to extricate itself in time of war or depression. But what kind of times does America currently live in? The leitmotiv of Obama's speech was that it is time to get important but actually quite modest things done. But the constitution is not on his side, and American voters may not be as resolutely committed to him as he wants either. Energising them about gun control is a means to that larger end.
Judged by the two big speeches of his early second term, the second inaugural and the state of the union, Obama believes two big things. First, that the American mood is swinging back towards the need for government-driven solutions rather than laissez-faire individualistic ones. Second, that the Republicans will not compromise and so will only budge under pressure of public opinion. These convictions are increasingly driving this most instinctively consensual president towards confrontation and the strengthening of presidential power. The great unknown is whether Americans accept that things are serious enough to back him through the battles ahead.Judged by the two big speeches of his early second term, the second inaugural and the state of the union, Obama believes two big things. First, that the American mood is swinging back towards the need for government-driven solutions rather than laissez-faire individualistic ones. Second, that the Republicans will not compromise and so will only budge under pressure of public opinion. These convictions are increasingly driving this most instinctively consensual president towards confrontation and the strengthening of presidential power. The great unknown is whether Americans accept that things are serious enough to back him through the battles ahead.
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