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| Ecuador election: Rafael Correa set to win despite fossil fuel fears | Ecuador election: Rafael Correa set to win despite fossil fuel fears |
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| Given his reputation as a tough talking Latin American caudillo, it is rather strange at first to see the Ecuadorean president, Rafael Correa, donning a natty lime green helmet and getting on a bicycle to campaign for re-election. | Given his reputation as a tough talking Latin American caudillo, it is rather strange at first to see the Ecuadorean president, Rafael Correa, donning a natty lime green helmet and getting on a bicycle to campaign for re-election. |
| Yet a green and gentle image is exactly what the incumbent seems to be pushing in his latest TV advert, which shows him pedalling past a rare Ecuadorian windfarm, cruising along the roads of the Andes and having his bike lifted on to a canoe so he can take it across rivers in the Amazonian basin. | Yet a green and gentle image is exactly what the incumbent seems to be pushing in his latest TV advert, which shows him pedalling past a rare Ecuadorian windfarm, cruising along the roads of the Andes and having his bike lifted on to a canoe so he can take it across rivers in the Amazonian basin. |
| The ad is designed to make Correa freewheel to a second term of office, despite growing accusations from former allies, environmentalists and indigenous groups that the president has abandoned his political roots in favour of big oil, big infrastructure and a big international partner – China. | The ad is designed to make Correa freewheel to a second term of office, despite growing accusations from former allies, environmentalists and indigenous groups that the president has abandoned his political roots in favour of big oil, big infrastructure and a big international partner – China. |
| For it is fossil fuels rather than pedal power that look set to propel the president back into office, despite the misgivings of many of his former supporters on the left. | For it is fossil fuels rather than pedal power that look set to propel the president back into office, despite the misgivings of many of his former supporters on the left. |
| Since Correa first won power in 2006, Ecuador has enjoyed unprecedented political stability (he is already the longest serving president in a century) and steady economic growth thanks largely to the high price of oil and hefty loans from China. This has funded impressive state programmes to reduce poverty, cut unemployment, raise literacy and improve healthcare. | Since Correa first won power in 2006, Ecuador has enjoyed unprecedented political stability (he is already the longest serving president in a century) and steady economic growth thanks largely to the high price of oil and hefty loans from China. This has funded impressive state programmes to reduce poverty, cut unemployment, raise literacy and improve healthcare. |
| The country has also won international kudos for progressive policies for the disabled and the environment, including the world's first constitution that recognises the rights of nature and the ITT initiative, which promises not to exploit oil in a 180,000-hectare area of the Yasuní national park if the international community can raise half the estimated $7.6bn value of the fossil fuel. | The country has also won international kudos for progressive policies for the disabled and the environment, including the world's first constitution that recognises the rights of nature and the ITT initiative, which promises not to exploit oil in a 180,000-hectare area of the Yasuní national park if the international community can raise half the estimated $7.6bn value of the fossil fuel. |
| This has prompted some to tip Correa as a potential successor to Venezuela's Hugo Chávez as the figurehead of the Latin-American left. For the moment, however, that looks premature, not least because Correa has failed to maintain the unity of even the Ecuadorean left, even though he has proved himself an immensely successful populist. | This has prompted some to tip Correa as a potential successor to Venezuela's Hugo Chávez as the figurehead of the Latin-American left. For the moment, however, that looks premature, not least because Correa has failed to maintain the unity of even the Ecuadorean left, even though he has proved himself an immensely successful populist. |
| In the current race, two of his challengers are former allies who have turned against a president they accuse of abandoning his core principles and letting power go to his head. One of them has been described as a former ideological soulmate: Alberto Acosta served as energy minister and headed the panel that rewrote the 2008 constitution. Along with its widely hailed green principles, that reform allowed Correa to run again for office. Acosta now feels cheated that his former friend has abandoned the spirit of the constitution and become too authoritarian. | In the current race, two of his challengers are former allies who have turned against a president they accuse of abandoning his core principles and letting power go to his head. One of them has been described as a former ideological soulmate: Alberto Acosta served as energy minister and headed the panel that rewrote the 2008 constitution. Along with its widely hailed green principles, that reform allowed Correa to run again for office. Acosta now feels cheated that his former friend has abandoned the spirit of the constitution and become too authoritarian. |
| "Correa was almost my brother, but I regret that he has departed from the fundamental principles of the revolution," Acosta told the Guardian during a break on the campaign trail. "When the constitution was introduced Correa said it was the best in the world and would last 300 years. But then he found it inconvenient because it was a straitjacket for an authoritarian. The constitution was written by democrats for democrats. Now I realise he wants to concentrate power for himself." | "Correa was almost my brother, but I regret that he has departed from the fundamental principles of the revolution," Acosta told the Guardian during a break on the campaign trail. "When the constitution was introduced Correa said it was the best in the world and would last 300 years. But then he found it inconvenient because it was a straitjacket for an authoritarian. The constitution was written by democrats for democrats. Now I realise he wants to concentrate power for himself." |
| Acosta is the presidential candidate for the Plurinational Co-ordinating Group. This is a broad coalition of left-wing bodies that used to support Correa but have grown disillusioned by the president's championing of oil, gas and mineral interests over environmental concerns and the rights of indigenous groups. | Acosta is the presidential candidate for the Plurinational Co-ordinating Group. This is a broad coalition of left-wing bodies that used to support Correa but have grown disillusioned by the president's championing of oil, gas and mineral interests over environmental concerns and the rights of indigenous groups. |
| Many were upset when the government condemned the Sarayacu tribe as terrorists when they tried to resist mining in their homeland. Others have watched with alarm as roads, river traffic and mining interests have moved deeper into the Amazon, including the borders of the ITT initiative in Yasuní. | Many were upset when the government condemned the Sarayacu tribe as terrorists when they tried to resist mining in their homeland. Others have watched with alarm as roads, river traffic and mining interests have moved deeper into the Amazon, including the borders of the ITT initiative in Yasuní. |
| "If Correa wins the ITT initiative will be dropped. The infrastructure is already in place to exploit the oil," warns Acosta. | "If Correa wins the ITT initiative will be dropped. The infrastructure is already in place to exploit the oil," warns Acosta. |
| The government has given no indication that it will drop the initiative. "Correa takes credit for the ITT initiative outside of Ecuador. But in reality he doesn't feel comfortable with it. He's preparing to blame rich nations for not giving enough to make it work." | The government has given no indication that it will drop the initiative. "Correa takes credit for the ITT initiative outside of Ecuador. But in reality he doesn't feel comfortable with it. He's preparing to blame rich nations for not giving enough to make it work." |
| Others are unhappy about the president's clampdowns on the private media and the weakening of the judiciary. The youngest challenger, 42-year-old Norman Wray, represents the Ruptura de los 25 movement, which also encompasses many former government supporters who are now unhappy with the president. | Others are unhappy about the president's clampdowns on the private media and the weakening of the judiciary. The youngest challenger, 42-year-old Norman Wray, represents the Ruptura de los 25 movement, which also encompasses many former government supporters who are now unhappy with the president. |
| Correa dismisses these domestic critics as the "childish left" and aligns himself with the established regional leaders who trumpet anti-imperialist credentials, such as Chávez in Venezuela, Evo Morales in Bolivia and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina. He has been endorsed by the São Paolo Forum of 20 socialist and communist parties in the region. | Correa dismisses these domestic critics as the "childish left" and aligns himself with the established regional leaders who trumpet anti-imperialist credentials, such as Chávez in Venezuela, Evo Morales in Bolivia and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina. He has been endorsed by the São Paolo Forum of 20 socialist and communist parties in the region. |
| The split on the Ecuadorian left is unlikely to prevent Correa from winning a new four-year term in Sunday's election. A recent poll by Market predicted the president would win a landslide with 59.4% of the vote. His closest challenger – the former banker and rightwing candidate Guillermo Lasso – had only 11.6%. The constitution states that a candidate can win in the first round if he secures more than 40% of the vote and is at least 10 points ahead of his nearest rival. | The split on the Ecuadorian left is unlikely to prevent Correa from winning a new four-year term in Sunday's election. A recent poll by Market predicted the president would win a landslide with 59.4% of the vote. His closest challenger – the former banker and rightwing candidate Guillermo Lasso – had only 11.6%. The constitution states that a candidate can win in the first round if he secures more than 40% of the vote and is at least 10 points ahead of his nearest rival. |
| Departures and scandals have failed to dent his popularity. Popular vice-president Lenín Moreno – a champion for disabled people – is standing down. His likely replacement, Jorge Glas, has been accused of plagiarising his engineering thesis. Correa's cousin and former head of the national bank, Pedro Delgado, has absconded to Miami after admitting he had no qualifications as an economist and failing to staunch rumours that he is involved in money laundering for Iran. | Departures and scandals have failed to dent his popularity. Popular vice-president Lenín Moreno – a champion for disabled people – is standing down. His likely replacement, Jorge Glas, has been accused of plagiarising his engineering thesis. Correa's cousin and former head of the national bank, Pedro Delgado, has absconded to Miami after admitting he had no qualifications as an economist and failing to staunch rumours that he is involved in money laundering for Iran. |
| Commentators are now saying the election is not so much about who will be president, as what kind of presidency Ecuador will have for the next four years. | Commentators are now saying the election is not so much about who will be president, as what kind of presidency Ecuador will have for the next four years. |
| "The main political issue is whether we are going to consolidate power entirely in the president," says José Hernández, analyst and deputy director of Diario Hoy. | "The main political issue is whether we are going to consolidate power entirely in the president," says José Hernández, analyst and deputy director of Diario Hoy. |
| Moreno is probably the only person in the country who could rival Correa for popularity. One of his last government duties is to run the country while Correa campaigns, which means he has tried to remain above the political fray. | Moreno is probably the only person in the country who could rival Correa for popularity. One of his last government duties is to run the country while Correa campaigns, which means he has tried to remain above the political fray. |
| But when asked by the Guardian why he was leaving, Moreno's oblique reply might easily be applied to his boss. "Power makes me feel uncomfortable. Those in power lose a sense of priority," he said. "Power is something that you must leave behind as quickly as possible." | But when asked by the Guardian why he was leaving, Moreno's oblique reply might easily be applied to his boss. "Power makes me feel uncomfortable. Those in power lose a sense of priority," he said. "Power is something that you must leave behind as quickly as possible." |
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