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Conservatives worried by diminishing support among women voters Conservatives worried by diminishing support among women voters
(7 months later)
Before the 2010 election Shirani Benedict, a lifelong Labour voter, thought it was time for a change. "I voted for David Cameron because I thought he would be different, I thought things would get better," said the 40-year-old.Before the 2010 election Shirani Benedict, a lifelong Labour voter, thought it was time for a change. "I voted for David Cameron because I thought he would be different, I thought things would get better," said the 40-year-old.
But, like the chill wind that whipped around her daughter's school in Watford, her feelings have cooled. "I won't be voting for him again. Why? There are so many issues; where do you want me to start?"But, like the chill wind that whipped around her daughter's school in Watford, her feelings have cooled. "I won't be voting for him again. Why? There are so many issues; where do you want me to start?"
Women like Benedict are making some in the Conservative party very nervous. An ICM/Guardian poll this week giving Labour a 12-point lead over the Conservatives for the first time in almost a decade also suggested a wide and growing voting gender gap.Women like Benedict are making some in the Conservative party very nervous. An ICM/Guardian poll this week giving Labour a 12-point lead over the Conservatives for the first time in almost a decade also suggested a wide and growing voting gender gap.
While Labour had a seven-point lead over the Tories (36%-29%) among men, among women it was 26 points (51%-25%).While Labour had a seven-point lead over the Tories (36%-29%) among men, among women it was 26 points (51%-25%).
Women have been pro-Labour in 13 consecutive Guardian/ICM polls, with a double digit difference in each of the last six, said Martin Boon, director of ICM research.Women have been pro-Labour in 13 consecutive Guardian/ICM polls, with a double digit difference in each of the last six, said Martin Boon, director of ICM research.
"It is wise to express caution about the latest development as sample sizes are based on about 250 female votes and similar for men, but for this to be such a consistent theme is no doubt worth remarking upon," he said."It is wise to express caution about the latest development as sample sizes are based on about 250 female votes and similar for men, but for this to be such a consistent theme is no doubt worth remarking upon," he said.
Dr Rosie Campbell, expert in voting and gender at Birkbeck, University of London, said: "From the beginning David Cameron talked about the work/life balance, trying to win back women attracted by New Labour – but he has delivered?"Dr Rosie Campbell, expert in voting and gender at Birkbeck, University of London, said: "From the beginning David Cameron talked about the work/life balance, trying to win back women attracted by New Labour – but he has delivered?"
A noxious combination of cuts to child tax credits, child benefit, public sector roles more likely to be held by women, pensions and fears over the NHS, childcare and further education were turning women off.A noxious combination of cuts to child tax credits, child benefit, public sector roles more likely to be held by women, pensions and fears over the NHS, childcare and further education were turning women off.
"You can't get away with relying on the rhetoric if that is not what women are feeling on the ground.""You can't get away with relying on the rhetoric if that is not what women are feeling on the ground."
Deborah Mattinson, founder of Britain Thinks, agrees. "Women feel much harder hit by the problems facing the country – they also tend to look at things from a family perspective and are concerned about their children's job prospects, homes and education," she said.Deborah Mattinson, founder of Britain Thinks, agrees. "Women feel much harder hit by the problems facing the country – they also tend to look at things from a family perspective and are concerned about their children's job prospects, homes and education," she said.
"The Conservatives are going to have to work very hard to turn this around.""The Conservatives are going to have to work very hard to turn this around."
After extra welfare cost savings were announced in the autumn budget Yvette Cooper, shadow minister for women and equalities, argued that 81% of new direct tax, tax credit, and benefit changes would hit women.After extra welfare cost savings were announced in the autumn budget Yvette Cooper, shadow minister for women and equalities, argued that 81% of new direct tax, tax credit, and benefit changes would hit women.
"I think what we're seeing now and for a long period of time is that David Cameron personally, and the government, has a serious blind spot when it comes to women," said Cooper."I think what we're seeing now and for a long period of time is that David Cameron personally, and the government, has a serious blind spot when it comes to women," said Cooper.
"The government talks about ending dependency on the public sector, but women know it is those measures that allow you to become independent.""The government talks about ending dependency on the public sector, but women know it is those measures that allow you to become independent."
In Watford, a three-way marginal for 2015, many women appeared largely unconcerned about cuts to the public sector, but were worried about the cost of childcare and spiralling living costs.In Watford, a three-way marginal for 2015, many women appeared largely unconcerned about cuts to the public sector, but were worried about the cost of childcare and spiralling living costs.
Childcare was the first issue many mentioned: "After travel and childcare I had an extra £200 a month – so what's the point," was a typical refrain. Another woman said she'd worked full time but had unwillingly reduced her hours because "it wasn't worth the hassle for the cost".Childcare was the first issue many mentioned: "After travel and childcare I had an extra £200 a month – so what's the point," was a typical refrain. Another woman said she'd worked full time but had unwillingly reduced her hours because "it wasn't worth the hassle for the cost".
Several were concerned about proposed changes from early years minister Elizabeth Truss that would allow carers to look after more children.Several were concerned about proposed changes from early years minister Elizabeth Truss that would allow carers to look after more children.
"I'm good at my job, but I'm not an octopus," said one childcare worker, in the Watford library."I'm good at my job, but I'm not an octopus," said one childcare worker, in the Watford library.
"If you speak to mums they want the best quality care for their kids – this might be cheaper but a lot of people are worried that it won't be as good," she said."If you speak to mums they want the best quality care for their kids – this might be cheaper but a lot of people are worried that it won't be as good," she said.
"For me Labour seem much more pro young education, because they opened Sure Start centres and that is what I believe in.""For me Labour seem much more pro young education, because they opened Sure Start centres and that is what I believe in."
The Tories had to focus on the family, and fast, if they were to win back the female vote, said Paul Goodman, executive editor of ConservativeHome and a former Conservative MP.The Tories had to focus on the family, and fast, if they were to win back the female vote, said Paul Goodman, executive editor of ConservativeHome and a former Conservative MP.
"Frankly, the government family policy is a dog's breakfast. There are lots of people banging lots of different drums.""Frankly, the government family policy is a dog's breakfast. There are lots of people banging lots of different drums."
The Tory party was "very, very, very concerned" about women's votes, he added. "However, there's no need for Downing Street to panic. It simply needs to keep trying to get the economy right, and get a grip on family policy, because it will be more difficult to close the gender gap with no one in charge of family policy."The Tory party was "very, very, very concerned" about women's votes, he added. "However, there's no need for Downing Street to panic. It simply needs to keep trying to get the economy right, and get a grip on family policy, because it will be more difficult to close the gender gap with no one in charge of family policy."
Recent events – such as infighting over gay marriage, the continuing economic squeeze and cuts to public sector jobs- were also likely to have played a part.Recent events – such as infighting over gay marriage, the continuing economic squeeze and cuts to public sector jobs- were also likely to have played a part.
"Obviously it's not easier in coalition and it won't get any better during [the byelection in] Eastleigh," he said."Obviously it's not easier in coalition and it won't get any better during [the byelection in] Eastleigh," he said.
As in America – where Barack Obama won 55% of the female vote in November – western women tended to be more socially leftwing than men, but this had not been the case in the first four decades of women's suffrage in Britain – before women entered the workforce in far greater numbers, said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London and the author of The Conservatives since 1945: the Drivers of Party Change.As in America – where Barack Obama won 55% of the female vote in November – western women tended to be more socially leftwing than men, but this had not been the case in the first four decades of women's suffrage in Britain – before women entered the workforce in far greater numbers, said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London and the author of The Conservatives since 1945: the Drivers of Party Change.
"It's interesting to note that women punished Labour in the austerity years after the second world war, while the Tory emphasis on inflation has traditionally appealed to voters making daily consumer decisions," he said."It's interesting to note that women punished Labour in the austerity years after the second world war, while the Tory emphasis on inflation has traditionally appealed to voters making daily consumer decisions," he said.
Once again, women were finding themselves on the frontline of squeezed budgets while bearing the brunt of public sector cuts.Once again, women were finding themselves on the frontline of squeezed budgets while bearing the brunt of public sector cuts.
For women trying to balance the weekly budget in Watford, the rising cost of living, as well as stalled wages and a stagnant economy, was putting them under increasing pressure.For women trying to balance the weekly budget in Watford, the rising cost of living, as well as stalled wages and a stagnant economy, was putting them under increasing pressure.
"You speak to most people and they think this is the worst the country's ever been," said Genevieve Brannon, a 38-year-old mother who works part-time."You speak to most people and they think this is the worst the country's ever been," said Genevieve Brannon, a 38-year-old mother who works part-time.
"You watch all the prices all the time, and you think you've got ahead on one thing and then something else goes up – everything is going up except salaries," she said."You watch all the prices all the time, and you think you've got ahead on one thing and then something else goes up – everything is going up except salaries," she said.
There werewas some voices of comfort for Cameron in Watford town centre. Tara Oldham, a 43-year-old brand co-ordinator, said she was willing to give Cameron a chance.There werewas some voices of comfort for Cameron in Watford town centre. Tara Oldham, a 43-year-old brand co-ordinator, said she was willing to give Cameron a chance.
"I won't vote Lib Dem, they are woolly bleeding heart liberals with no spine, and Labour forgets about the working man on the street," she said. "I grew up in the Thatcher years, I love Maggie, but Cameron will do for now.""I won't vote Lib Dem, they are woolly bleeding heart liberals with no spine, and Labour forgets about the working man on the street," she said. "I grew up in the Thatcher years, I love Maggie, but Cameron will do for now."
Shirani Benedict, her daughter safely bundled in the car, was much less complimentary. "I just don't trust him; there's something about him that just makes me not believe him."Shirani Benedict, her daughter safely bundled in the car, was much less complimentary. "I just don't trust him; there's something about him that just makes me not believe him."
Asked if Labour had won back her vote, she was not convinced: "I don't even know who to vote for any more."Asked if Labour had won back her vote, she was not convinced: "I don't even know who to vote for any more."
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