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Bank of England minutes: governor will soon get his way on QE Bank of England minutes: governor will soon get his way on QE
(7 months later)
Sir Mervyn King wants to go out with a bang rather than a whimper. That was clear enough from the minutes of the February meeting of Threadneedle Street's nine-strong monetary policy committee at which the governor was one of a minority of three voting for more stimulus. What's also plain is that in the absence of a rapid pick-up in Britain's growth prospects more will be done to end the torpor of the past two years. The economy is a long way from achieving what King's successor, Mark Carney, calls "escape velocity".Sir Mervyn King wants to go out with a bang rather than a whimper. That was clear enough from the minutes of the February meeting of Threadneedle Street's nine-strong monetary policy committee at which the governor was one of a minority of three voting for more stimulus. What's also plain is that in the absence of a rapid pick-up in Britain's growth prospects more will be done to end the torpor of the past two years. The economy is a long way from achieving what King's successor, Mark Carney, calls "escape velocity".
The fear that 2013 will be yet another year of sub-par economic performance permeated the minutes. Indeed, the only thing that could have made them more "dove-ish" would have been a vote in favour of doing more to boost output. Two years ago, when rising commodity prices were pushing up inflation, several MPC members considered putting up interest rates. No such action is contemplated today, even though inflation has been above target for the past four years and will remain in excess of 2% for at least the next two.The fear that 2013 will be yet another year of sub-par economic performance permeated the minutes. Indeed, the only thing that could have made them more "dove-ish" would have been a vote in favour of doing more to boost output. Two years ago, when rising commodity prices were pushing up inflation, several MPC members considered putting up interest rates. No such action is contemplated today, even though inflation has been above target for the past four years and will remain in excess of 2% for at least the next two.
In addition to adopting a "flexible" approach to hitting the inflation target, the MPC spent the February meeting discussing all the various stimulus options. It thought about cutting its main interest rate from 0.5% and reducing the remuneration commercial banks receive on their deposits at the Bank, before rejecting both ideas. It also discussed broadening the quantitative easing programme to include not just government gilts but other assets, an idea which has much to commend it since it would allow the high street banks to get rid of some of the toxic waste polluting their balance sheets and pave the way for an increase in business lending. But the MPC's argument has always been that if it buys up commercial loans such as mortgages, taxpayers' money would be at risk. As a result, any such a move would require backing from the Treasury.In addition to adopting a "flexible" approach to hitting the inflation target, the MPC spent the February meeting discussing all the various stimulus options. It thought about cutting its main interest rate from 0.5% and reducing the remuneration commercial banks receive on their deposits at the Bank, before rejecting both ideas. It also discussed broadening the quantitative easing programme to include not just government gilts but other assets, an idea which has much to commend it since it would allow the high street banks to get rid of some of the toxic waste polluting their balance sheets and pave the way for an increase in business lending. But the MPC's argument has always been that if it buys up commercial loans such as mortgages, taxpayers' money would be at risk. As a result, any such a move would require backing from the Treasury.
If the Bank is to do anything unilaterally in the coming months it will be more QE coupled with a concerted attempt to boost exports by talking down the value of the pound. The minutes show that all MPC members believe QE would work to a greater or lesser degree, but that some are currently more sanguine about the outlook for inflation than others. As far as the level of sterling is concerned, the minutes spoke for themselves. The pound dropped like a stone after their release.If the Bank is to do anything unilaterally in the coming months it will be more QE coupled with a concerted attempt to boost exports by talking down the value of the pound. The minutes show that all MPC members believe QE would work to a greater or lesser degree, but that some are currently more sanguine about the outlook for inflation than others. As far as the level of sterling is concerned, the minutes spoke for themselves. The pound dropped like a stone after their release.
History suggests that more QE may not be delayed long. As Michael Saunders of Citibank pointed out, it is not unknown for the governor to be on the losing side of an MPC vote. In June 2007, King wanted an increase in the main interest rate but the MPC voted against a change. In June last year, the governor was one of three plumping for more QE. On both occasions, King had his way the following month.History suggests that more QE may not be delayed long. As Michael Saunders of Citibank pointed out, it is not unknown for the governor to be on the losing side of an MPC vote. In June 2007, King wanted an increase in the main interest rate but the MPC voted against a change. In June last year, the governor was one of three plumping for more QE. On both occasions, King had his way the following month.
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