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Eastleigh byelection: Boris Johnson given the doorstep brush-off Eastleigh byelection: Boris Johnson given the doorstep brush-off
(7 months later)
The mid-afternoon tranquillity of suburban Stamford Way was broken on Wednesday when startled voters opened their doors to find a familiar blond on the step and a phalanx of Fleet Street snappers at the garden gate. Yes, Boris Johnson had been summoned to help rescue his party's flagging campaign in the Eastleigh byelection and shore up David Cameron's premiership.The mid-afternoon tranquillity of suburban Stamford Way was broken on Wednesday when startled voters opened their doors to find a familiar blond on the step and a phalanx of Fleet Street snappers at the garden gate. Yes, Boris Johnson had been summoned to help rescue his party's flagging campaign in the Eastleigh byelection and shore up David Cameron's premiership.
All things considered, most voters take it well, as if ET or Rhianna was in the habit of dropping in for a cuppa every Wednesday. No sooner has the mayor of London pronounced "no one home" after lightly pressing one bell than the householder appears.All things considered, most voters take it well, as if ET or Rhianna was in the habit of dropping in for a cuppa every Wednesday. No sooner has the mayor of London pronounced "no one home" after lightly pressing one bell than the householder appears.
Voter: "Oh my God [pause]. No, no thank you," as if Boris was selling brushes.Voter: "Oh my God [pause]. No, no thank you," as if Boris was selling brushes.
Mr Mayor is not easily discouraged. "A very good candidate," he says, gesturing at Maria Hutchings as if she were a sample brush. After a brief exchange, Johnson and the Tory candidate retreat. "It's going very well," he says, which is Boris-speak for "no it isn't".Mr Mayor is not easily discouraged. "A very good candidate," he says, gesturing at Maria Hutchings as if she were a sample brush. After a brief exchange, Johnson and the Tory candidate retreat. "It's going very well," he says, which is Boris-speak for "no it isn't".
Whether he is the right man to transform the Hutchings campaign is debatable. He is a metropolitan posh boy; she is a working-class mum, an immigrant to south Hampshire from Essex and proud of it. Though both are gaffe-prone, Eurosceptic populists, quietly scornful of Cameron's patrician reserve, Hutchings's fiery brand makes Johnson's sound quite thoughtful.Whether he is the right man to transform the Hutchings campaign is debatable. He is a metropolitan posh boy; she is a working-class mum, an immigrant to south Hampshire from Essex and proud of it. Though both are gaffe-prone, Eurosceptic populists, quietly scornful of Cameron's patrician reserve, Hutchings's fiery brand makes Johnson's sound quite thoughtful.
Clever, ruthless and ambitious, he probably has more in common with Chris Huhne, whose character flaws have caused next Thursday's ballot. Little wonder that the major candidates – there are 15 in all – do not actively exploit the former MP's disgrace. Their brand is tainted, too.Clever, ruthless and ambitious, he probably has more in common with Chris Huhne, whose character flaws have caused next Thursday's ballot. Little wonder that the major candidates – there are 15 in all – do not actively exploit the former MP's disgrace. Their brand is tainted, too.
On the face of it, Huhne's guilty plea last month on a charge of perverting the course of justice over a 2003 speeding case ought to have killed the Liberal Democrats' hopes of holding the seat. But the party is well dug-in and well-organised here, holding 40 of the 44 council seats.On the face of it, Huhne's guilty plea last month on a charge of perverting the course of justice over a 2003 speeding case ought to have killed the Liberal Democrats' hopes of holding the seat. But the party is well dug-in and well-organised here, holding 40 of the 44 council seats.
One of their own, wholesome council veteran, Mike Thornton, is their "Mr Normal" candidate. Unlike Huhne, he has no visible ambition other than seeking better jobs, houses and schools and lower taxes for the people of Stamford Way in Fox Oak, a suburbanised village on the eastern flank of Eastleigh. In picking a novice, the writer and humourist John O'Farrell, to be its candidate, Labour appears to be saying implicitly that it hopes that his charm and TV-recognition status will protect its 9.6% share of the vote in 2010 – even enhance it.One of their own, wholesome council veteran, Mike Thornton, is their "Mr Normal" candidate. Unlike Huhne, he has no visible ambition other than seeking better jobs, houses and schools and lower taxes for the people of Stamford Way in Fox Oak, a suburbanised village on the eastern flank of Eastleigh. In picking a novice, the writer and humourist John O'Farrell, to be its candidate, Labour appears to be saying implicitly that it hopes that his charm and TV-recognition status will protect its 9.6% share of the vote in 2010 – even enhance it.
"I think we can win," O'Farrell unconvincingly assures reporters after parading two volunteers dressed as jockeys, one in red, one in blue and yellow, for the television crews. The idea is to mock his rivals' claim that this is a two-horse race between the Lib Dems and Tories: they are the same horse, says Labour."I think we can win," O'Farrell unconvincingly assures reporters after parading two volunteers dressed as jockeys, one in red, one in blue and yellow, for the television crews. The idea is to mock his rivals' claim that this is a two-horse race between the Lib Dems and Tories: they are the same horse, says Labour.
In truth, this is a Lib-Con scrap which Labour can afford to sit out and quietly enjoy. But tactical voting and turnout, twin horses of byelection disaster, will decide the outcome.In truth, this is a Lib-Con scrap which Labour can afford to sit out and quietly enjoy. But tactical voting and turnout, twin horses of byelection disaster, will decide the outcome.
In Diane James (articulate and smartly dressed, she looks more the Tory candidate than Hutchings), Ukip has a sharp candidate and an upbeat mood in its campaign HQ on the high street. James parades two Lib Dem defectors, fed up with coalition "lies" and Huhne, and claims to be winning votes from all sides.In Diane James (articulate and smartly dressed, she looks more the Tory candidate than Hutchings), Ukip has a sharp candidate and an upbeat mood in its campaign HQ on the high street. James parades two Lib Dem defectors, fed up with coalition "lies" and Huhne, and claims to be winning votes from all sides.
Hutchings lost by 3,864 to Huhne in 2010 and needs a 3.7% swing to win next week. Her embarrassingly noisy support for leaving the EU has not immunised her against defections, which are easily found, even in mainly prosperous Eastleigh where Poundland's customers are matched by those at the Costa cafe.Hutchings lost by 3,864 to Huhne in 2010 and needs a 3.7% swing to win next week. Her embarrassingly noisy support for leaving the EU has not immunised her against defections, which are easily found, even in mainly prosperous Eastleigh where Poundland's customers are matched by those at the Costa cafe.
Among lunchtime shoppers outside Sainsbury's, the mood is uncertain. "I was Lib Dem, but may switch,'' says one voter.Among lunchtime shoppers outside Sainsbury's, the mood is uncertain. "I was Lib Dem, but may switch,'' says one voter.
Prevailing theory is that defeat would be a disaster for either Nick Clegg or David Cameron or (either way) for the coalition. This could be a coalition-breaker, say excited pundits. It does not feel that way. Clegg has an alibi for defeat (Huhne) while Cameron can remind his critics that, if Hutchings loses, it shows that her rightwing soundbites – immigration, abortion (a 10-week limit?), police ink guns to brand rioters and Euroscepticism – are not the path to victory in 2015. She may be more trouble to him if she wins, the first such Tory mid-term gain in office since 1982.As for Boris Johnson's message to reporters on the Waterloo train is that it is "the constitutional duty of every Tory to go to Eastleigh and kick the Lib Dems in the … oh no, they haven't got any".Prevailing theory is that defeat would be a disaster for either Nick Clegg or David Cameron or (either way) for the coalition. This could be a coalition-breaker, say excited pundits. It does not feel that way. Clegg has an alibi for defeat (Huhne) while Cameron can remind his critics that, if Hutchings loses, it shows that her rightwing soundbites – immigration, abortion (a 10-week limit?), police ink guns to brand rioters and Euroscepticism – are not the path to victory in 2015. She may be more trouble to him if she wins, the first such Tory mid-term gain in office since 1982.As for Boris Johnson's message to reporters on the Waterloo train is that it is "the constitutional duty of every Tory to go to Eastleigh and kick the Lib Dems in the … oh no, they haven't got any".
In Stamford Way, he repeatedly attacks Clegg as a nonentity whose only claim to fame is his U-turn over student tuition fees – " a protoplasmic, amoebic, vacillating, jelly of indecision". To suggestions that Hutchings is a loose cannon whose London minders (more evident on the doorstep than local activists) keep her firmly under control, he insists she is a "strong original, local voice". But his endorsement falls well short of enthusiastic – as it does for Cameron and his "strong, credible plan for the country".In Stamford Way, he repeatedly attacks Clegg as a nonentity whose only claim to fame is his U-turn over student tuition fees – " a protoplasmic, amoebic, vacillating, jelly of indecision". To suggestions that Hutchings is a loose cannon whose London minders (more evident on the doorstep than local activists) keep her firmly under control, he insists she is a "strong original, local voice". But his endorsement falls well short of enthusiastic – as it does for Cameron and his "strong, credible plan for the country".
Among adults, the metropolitan Johnson magic does patchy business outside his comfort zone. Despite her tracksuit top with 'MARIA HUTCHINGS' on the back, even the candidate gives off the sense that Thornton's "Mr Normal" pitch may see the Lib Dem safely elected despite everything. " I will try my best, that's all we can do," she explains. After 30 minutes or so, Johnson gets into his white Mercedes van with the black tinted glass and is beamed back to London and peace again descends on Stamford Way .Among adults, the metropolitan Johnson magic does patchy business outside his comfort zone. Despite her tracksuit top with 'MARIA HUTCHINGS' on the back, even the candidate gives off the sense that Thornton's "Mr Normal" pitch may see the Lib Dem safely elected despite everything. " I will try my best, that's all we can do," she explains. After 30 minutes or so, Johnson gets into his white Mercedes van with the black tinted glass and is beamed back to London and peace again descends on Stamford Way .
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