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| Iran slows growth of key uranium stockpile ahead of international talks | Iran slows growth of key uranium stockpile ahead of international talks |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| The latest quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) on Iran's nuclear programme is notable for two developments, sending conflicting signals ahead of next week's round of international talks on the issue next week in Almaty, Kazakhstan. | The latest quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) on Iran's nuclear programme is notable for two developments, sending conflicting signals ahead of next week's round of international talks on the issue next week in Almaty, Kazakhstan. |
| The element which has drawn most international attention and criticism is confirmation of Iran's stated intention to start installing a new generation of centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment plant in Natanz. The report notes: | The element which has drawn most international attention and criticism is confirmation of Iran's stated intention to start installing a new generation of centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment plant in Natanz. The report notes: |
| On 6 February 2013, the Agency observed that Iran had started the installation of IR-2m centrifuges and empty centrifuge casings. This is the first time that centrifuges more advanced than the IR-1 have been installed in FEP [Fuel Enrichment Plant] | On 6 February 2013, the Agency observed that Iran had started the installation of IR-2m centrifuges and empty centrifuge casings. This is the first time that centrifuges more advanced than the IR-1 have been installed in FEP [Fuel Enrichment Plant] |
| The US state department called the installation of the new machines, made with special maraging steel and carbon fibre rather than aluminum, marked "yet another provocative step". In the UK, the foreign office minister, Alistair Burt, said: | The US state department called the installation of the new machines, made with special maraging steel and carbon fibre rather than aluminum, marked "yet another provocative step". In the UK, the foreign office minister, Alistair Burt, said: |
The timing of this move – immediately before the IAEA Board of Governors meeting and before E3+3 talks with Iran in Almaty, Kazakstan next week – concerns and disappoints us. We trust that Iran will come to talks in Almaty willing to negotiate meaningfully, and we urge Iran to respect all relevant resolutions and cooperate fully with the IAEA. | The timing of this move – immediately before the IAEA Board of Governors meeting and before E3+3 talks with Iran in Almaty, Kazakstan next week – concerns and disappoints us. We trust that Iran will come to talks in Almaty willing to negotiate meaningfully, and we urge Iran to respect all relevant resolutions and cooperate fully with the IAEA. |
| However, the 180 IR-2 centrifuges installed so far have not started operating and it is unclear how well they will work, how many will ultimately be installed and how fast. Meanwhile, Iran took a significant step in slowing down its accumulation of 20%-enriched uranium, seen as the particular proliferation concern as it could relatively quickly be further enriched into weapons-grade fissile material. | However, the 180 IR-2 centrifuges installed so far have not started operating and it is unclear how well they will work, how many will ultimately be installed and how fast. Meanwhile, Iran took a significant step in slowing down its accumulation of 20%-enriched uranium, seen as the particular proliferation concern as it could relatively quickly be further enriched into weapons-grade fissile material. |
| At the time of the last IAEA report three months ago, Iran had a stockpile of nearly 135kg of 20% uranium and that figure was growing fast because it had stopped converting a portion of its production into uranium oxide powder for use as reactor fuel. That conversion resumed on December 2, the IAEA reports, and 28% was taken away from the 20% stockpile between in the two months since. Once it is converted into powder, it becomes much less of a proliferation concern. | At the time of the last IAEA report three months ago, Iran had a stockpile of nearly 135kg of 20% uranium and that figure was growing fast because it had stopped converting a portion of its production into uranium oxide powder for use as reactor fuel. That conversion resumed on December 2, the IAEA reports, and 28% was taken away from the 20% stockpile between in the two months since. Once it is converted into powder, it becomes much less of a proliferation concern. |
| Iran 20% stockpile is now 167kg, an increase of 32kg in the past three months, so a growth rate of under 11kg a month. At that rate, Iran will take more than six months to reach the red line laid down by Israel of 240kg, enough in theory to make one nuclear warhead if further enriched. Tehran is playing a delicate game - upping the stakes ahead of the Almaty talks while keeping the window for diplomacy open a little bit longer. | Iran 20% stockpile is now 167kg, an increase of 32kg in the past three months, so a growth rate of under 11kg a month. At that rate, Iran will take more than six months to reach the red line laid down by Israel of 240kg, enough in theory to make one nuclear warhead if further enriched. Tehran is playing a delicate game - upping the stakes ahead of the Almaty talks while keeping the window for diplomacy open a little bit longer. |
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