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| Eastleigh flop would be a crisis for David Cameron, top Tory warns | Eastleigh flop would be a crisis for David Cameron, top Tory warns |
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| David Cameron's leadership will be in crisis if the Conservatives come third in the Eastleigh byelection behind the Liberal Democrats and Ukip, the prominent rightwing Tory David Davis has warned. | David Cameron's leadership will be in crisis if the Conservatives come third in the Eastleigh byelection behind the Liberal Democrats and Ukip, the prominent rightwing Tory David Davis has warned. |
| His remarks, before the critical byelection for the coalition partners, reflect Conservative concern that the main route to an overall majority at the next election will be blocked if Tories cannot capture a string of Liberal Democrat seats. | |
| Eleven of the Tories' top 43 target seats are held by the Lib Dems, and senior Conservatives are preparing for a bitter inquest if they fail to capture Eastleigh. | Eleven of the Tories' top 43 target seats are held by the Lib Dems, and senior Conservatives are preparing for a bitter inquest if they fail to capture Eastleigh. |
| Davis said: "I think if we came third it would be a crisis, I think that's the case, and if it's a close second with Ukip on our tail it will also be uncomfortable." | Davis said: "I think if we came third it would be a crisis, I think that's the case, and if it's a close second with Ukip on our tail it will also be uncomfortable." |
| He insisted neither result would dislodge Cameron. "He's going to be there till the next election, but the simple truth is that it will make things more uncomfortable in the House of Commons." | He insisted neither result would dislodge Cameron. "He's going to be there till the next election, but the simple truth is that it will make things more uncomfortable in the House of Commons." |
| Nick Clegg, campaigning in Eastleigh, insisted the Lib Dems were on the "cusp of a great, great victory" for their candidate, local councillor Mike Thornton. | Nick Clegg, campaigning in Eastleigh, insisted the Lib Dems were on the "cusp of a great, great victory" for their candidate, local councillor Mike Thornton. |
| Speaking to party loyalists at the Lib Dems' headquarters on a trading estate, Clegg said it was one of the most exciting and closely contested byelections that he could remember but he believed that his party could squeeze home. | Speaking to party loyalists at the Lib Dems' headquarters on a trading estate, Clegg said it was one of the most exciting and closely contested byelections that he could remember but he believed that his party could squeeze home. |
| The seat is the Tories' 55th most marginal target seat, requiring a 3.3% swing. Conservative chances were boosted by the backdrop of the resignation of the former MP Chris Huhne and the media controversy over Clegg's handling of allegations of sexual misdemeanours by Lord Rennard, the party's chief executive. But senior Tory sources acknowledged it was highly unlikely that they would win the seat, saying the Rennard issue had not resonated with the public. | The seat is the Tories' 55th most marginal target seat, requiring a 3.3% swing. Conservative chances were boosted by the backdrop of the resignation of the former MP Chris Huhne and the media controversy over Clegg's handling of allegations of sexual misdemeanours by Lord Rennard, the party's chief executive. But senior Tory sources acknowledged it was highly unlikely that they would win the seat, saying the Rennard issue had not resonated with the public. |
| Confidence was expressed that the Tories' candidate, Maria Hutchings, who has fought a troubled campaign, could see off a last-minute push by Ukip. | Confidence was expressed that the Tories' candidate, Maria Hutchings, who has fought a troubled campaign, could see off a last-minute push by Ukip. |
| But with some betting sites putting Ukip at evens to win, Nigel Farage, the party's leader, said he would be disappointed if the Ukip candidate only came third. | But with some betting sites putting Ukip at evens to win, Nigel Farage, the party's leader, said he would be disappointed if the Ukip candidate only came third. |
| Campaigning in the constituency for a seventh time, Farage hardened the party's line on immigration by suggesting that an influx of Romanians and Bulgarians next year could lead to a surge in crime. | Campaigning in the constituency for a seventh time, Farage hardened the party's line on immigration by suggesting that an influx of Romanians and Bulgarians next year could lead to a surge in crime. |
| Pointing to Office for National Statistics figures published this week showing the number of Romanians arrested over the past five years in London, Farage said: "I think this highlights even more strongly than in the terms we set out to begin with why people should use this byelection as an opportunity to send a shattering message to the coalition that we do not want total open-door immigration to Romania and Bulgaria." | Pointing to Office for National Statistics figures published this week showing the number of Romanians arrested over the past five years in London, Farage said: "I think this highlights even more strongly than in the terms we set out to begin with why people should use this byelection as an opportunity to send a shattering message to the coalition that we do not want total open-door immigration to Romania and Bulgaria." |
| On his party's chances, he said: "We're excited. If Cameron loses it's a disaster, if Clegg loses it's a catastrophe. Us losing doesn't do us a lot of harm, us winning will break the dam." | On his party's chances, he said: "We're excited. If Cameron loses it's a disaster, if Clegg loses it's a catastrophe. Us losing doesn't do us a lot of harm, us winning will break the dam." |
| The Ukip candidate, Diane James, said she believed she could send shockwaves through the political establishment. | The Ukip candidate, Diane James, said she believed she could send shockwaves through the political establishment. |
| Davis, who contested the Tory leadership with Cameron in 2005, suggested the Tory right would pump up the pressure for a different economic strategy in the budget next month. He said the cuts programme needed to be fiercer. "We've had a lot of rhetoric about austerity; we need a bit more reality about it. We need more cuts I'm afraid, or at least those same cuts faster." | Davis, who contested the Tory leadership with Cameron in 2005, suggested the Tory right would pump up the pressure for a different economic strategy in the budget next month. He said the cuts programme needed to be fiercer. "We've had a lot of rhetoric about austerity; we need a bit more reality about it. We need more cuts I'm afraid, or at least those same cuts faster." |
| He added the route to growth lay through lower taxes. "It's the sort of thing the Germans did in 2003, where they cut taxes in the middle of a deficit problem and it actually solved their deficit." | He added the route to growth lay through lower taxes. "It's the sort of thing the Germans did in 2003, where they cut taxes in the middle of a deficit problem and it actually solved their deficit." |
| Labour is preparing for its candidate, the writer John O'Farrell, to come fourth in what may be seen as a rebuff for Ed Miliband's one nation message. Labour will ask itself how Ukip has emerged to be the insurgent party in the byelection rather than itself. | Labour is preparing for its candidate, the writer John O'Farrell, to come fourth in what may be seen as a rebuff for Ed Miliband's one nation message. Labour will ask itself how Ukip has emerged to be the insurgent party in the byelection rather than itself. |
| Shadow cabinet members who have been in Eastleigh say immigration was an issue on the doorstep. Miliband has already made two speeches on immigration since he became leader – admitting the party had been insensitive to concerns about it – and a third is in the pipeline. | Shadow cabinet members who have been in Eastleigh say immigration was an issue on the doorstep. Miliband has already made two speeches on immigration since he became leader – admitting the party had been insensitive to concerns about it – and a third is in the pipeline. |
| Cameron has attempted to stave off a Ukip surge both by promising a referendum on the EU after the general election, and by hinting at restricting EU migrants' access to benefits. | Cameron has attempted to stave off a Ukip surge both by promising a referendum on the EU after the general election, and by hinting at restricting EU migrants' access to benefits. |