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| Eastleigh byelection - results: Politics live blog | Eastleigh byelection - results: Politics live blog |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 11.56pm: Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, says he will be "very disappointed" if Ukip comes third, according to the Press Association. | |
| 11.53pm: All the boxes from polling stations are now at the count. | |
| 10.36pm: I spoke to all four main parties before the polls closed, and the Lib Dems and Ukip were certainly the happiest. They did not have any solid intelligence, but - for what it's worth - here's what they were saying. | |
| Lib Dems: "It's going well," said a source. "Generally we are optimistic. We have had a good response." The party says it has had 600 activists in the constituency today - "coachloads of people coming in" - and other supporters have been making calls from home. The Lib Dems also think Ukip has done well. | |
| Tories: The Tory camp sounded quite defensive. "It's between us and the Lib Dems, but it does look fairly close," said a party source. | |
| Ukip: "We're a happy campaign," I was told. "We do not have to win to be successful." My source pointed out that Ukip started the campaign at 13% in the polls (see 10.19pm) and that it is now on course to do as well as it did in Rotherham, where it achieved its best result in an election to the Commons (21.7%). Ukip is also particularly flattered that the Conservatives have been putting out leaflets in Eastleigh using Ukip colours. "We are pretty confident of a great show, and that will send out a strong message that we are here to stay." | |
| Labour: Labour believe that the Lib Dems will win. They think that the turnout will be high, that the momentum is with Ukip, but that the Labour vote is holding up. | |
| 10.27pm: There are 14 candidates in all. | |
| The candidates | |
| Here are the main four candidates. | |
| Mike Thornton - Lib Dem | |
| Thornton is a classic solid, dependable local candidate. A business development manager, he's lived in the constituency for more than 15 years, he's served on the council for almost six years and he's campaigned as a local man championing local issues, not as an aspiring cabinet minister. He is not necessarily the most polished candidate on the ballot paper, but his opponents found it hard to find anything in his record to attack with much credibility. There are more details about him on his website. | |
| Maria Hutchings - Conservative | |
| "I am not a professional politician," Hutchings said on her leaflets. "I'm a straight-talking business woman and mother of four." The Tories tried to turn her outspokenness into an asset (read Boris Johnson on Monday), but a rash comment implying that local state schools were not good enough for her able son turned out to be the major gaffe of the campaign and there is no sign that her anti-Europe, anti-immigration stance has staunched the flow of votes to Ukip. There are more details about her on her website. | |
| Diane James - Ukip There was a time when Ukip candidates were noted for their flakiness and eccentricity, but James, a healthcare executive and a councillor in Surrey, has come over as mainstream and professional. The Guardian's John Harris said she was "a smart, apparently unflappable operator who you might easily mistake for an A-list Tory candidate" and in the Sunday Times Camilla Long said: "It is obvious that [James] should be the Conservative candidate, and ... Hutchings, a mother-of-four with unpalatable views on abortion and gay marriage, should be standing for UKIP." There are more details about James on her website. John 0'Farrell - Labour | |
| A comic writer and long-serving activist who wrote Things Can Only Get Better, a classic memoir about life as a Labour supporter, O'Farrell seems like a gentle soul, but, on the basis of what he wrote about his fleeting thoughts on first hearing about the IRA's attempt to kill Margaret Thatcher, the Tory tabloid press - and David Cameron - have depicted him in lurid terms as a terrorist sympathiser (which is a travesty, as I explained yesterday). Labour never had much chance here, and the smear campaign hasn't helped, but O'Farrell has livened things up with some wry tweets. There are more details on his website. | |
| And here are the other candidates. | |
| Colin Bex – Wessex Regionalists | |
| David Bishop – Elvis Loves Pets party | |
| Jim Duggan – The Peace party | |
| Ray Hall – Beer, Baccy and Crumpet party | |
| Howling "Laud" Hope – Monster Raving Loony William Hill party | |
| Iain McClenann – National Health Action Kevin Milburn – Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" Daz Proctor – Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts | |
| Danny Stupple – Independent | |
| Michael Walters – The English Democrats – "Putting England First!" | |
| 10.19pm: Unusually, there have been five opinion polls during the byelection campaign. Here are the results. | |
The opinion polls | |
A poll by Lord Ashcroft published on 8 February | |
| Conservatives: 34% Lib Dems: 31% Labour: 19% Ukip: 13% | Conservatives: 34% Lib Dems: 31% Labour: 19% Ukip: 13% |
| Conservative lead: 3 points | Conservative lead: 3 points |
| A poll by Survation for the Mail on Sunday on 10 February | A poll by Survation for the Mail on Sunday on 10 February |
| Lib Dems: 36% Conservatives: 33% Ukip: 16% Labour: 13% | Lib Dems: 36% Conservatives: 33% Ukip: 16% Labour: 13% |
| Lib Dem lead: 3 points | Lib Dem lead: 3 points |
| A Populus poll for the Times on 23 Feburary | A Populus poll for the Times on 23 Feburary |
| Lib Dems: 33% Conservatives: 28% Ukip: 21% Labour: 11% | Lib Dems: 33% Conservatives: 28% Ukip: 21% Labour: 11% |
| Lib Dem lead: 5 points | Lib Dem lead: 5 points |
| A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday on 24 February | A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday on 24 February |
| Conservatives: 33% Lib Dems: 29% Ukip: 21% Labour: 13% | Conservatives: 33% Lib Dems: 29% Ukip: 21% Labour: 13% |
| Conservative lead: 4 points | Conservative lead: 4 points |
| A poll for Lord Ashcroft published on 26 February | A poll for Lord Ashcroft published on 26 February |
| Lib Dems: 33% Conservatives: 28% Ukip: 21% Labour: 12% | Lib Dems: 33% Conservatives: 28% Ukip: 21% Labour: 12% |
| There's a neat Guardian interactive graphic here which shows all five polls on a chart. | There's a neat Guardian interactive graphic here which shows all five polls on a chart. |
| And here are two surveys of the polling published at the end of the campaign | And here are two surveys of the polling published at the end of the campaign |
| • A final analysis by Survation • An analysis by Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report | • A final analysis by Survation • An analysis by Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report |
| 10.00pm: It's 10pm. The polls have closed. Some ballot boxes, containing postal votes, are already here and the verification process - checking that papers are valid - is not underway. | 10.00pm: It's 10pm. The polls have closed. Some ballot boxes, containing postal votes, are already here and the verification process - checking that papers are valid - is not underway. |
| 9.34pm: Here is some background about the Eastleigh constituency. | 9.34pm: Here is some background about the Eastleigh constituency. |
| The Eastleigh constituency | The Eastleigh constituency |
| • The Eastleigh constituency Wikipedia page, with the results of all elections here since 1955. | • The Eastleigh constituency Wikipedia page, with the results of all elections here since 1955. |
| • A ward by ward analysis of the political makeup of the constituency on the all that's left website. | • A ward by ward analysis of the political makeup of the constituency on the all that's left website. |
| • A Telegraph graphic with demographic and other information about Eastleigh | • A Telegraph graphic with demographic and other information about Eastleigh |
| And here are the key election results from 2010. | And here are the key election results from 2010. |
| Chris Huhne (Lib Dem) - 24,966 (46.5%) | Chris Huhne (Lib Dem) - 24,966 (46.5%) |
| Maria Hutchings (Con) - 21,102 (39.3%) | Maria Hutchings (Con) - 21,102 (39.3%) |
| Leo Barraclough (Lab) - 5,153 (9.6%) | Leo Barraclough (Lab) - 5,153 (9.6%) |
| Ray Finch (Ukip) - 1,933 (3.6%) | Ray Finch (Ukip) - 1,933 (3.6%) |
| Lib Dem majority - 3,864 (7.19%) | Lib Dem majority - 3,864 (7.19%) |
| 9.32pm: Here's the scene from where I'm sitting at the count. | 9.32pm: Here's the scene from where I'm sitting at the count. |
| Half an hour to go until the polls close. | Half an hour to go until the polls close. |
| 9.00pm: Let's start with a bucket of cold water. For all the hype about tonight's Eastleigh byelection being the most important for 30 years, it's worth remembering that byelections themselves don't normally tell you very much about who's going to run the country after the next general election. "It cannot be stressed strongly enough that journalists, editiorial writers, party leaders and political scientists should be highly cautious about reading too much into individual [byelection] results," says Pippa Norris in British Byelections, one of the standard academic books on the subject. And Anthony Wells made a similar point on his UK Polling Report blog last night. | 9.00pm: Let's start with a bucket of cold water. For all the hype about tonight's Eastleigh byelection being the most important for 30 years, it's worth remembering that byelections themselves don't normally tell you very much about who's going to run the country after the next general election. "It cannot be stressed strongly enough that journalists, editiorial writers, party leaders and political scientists should be highly cautious about reading too much into individual [byelection] results," says Pippa Norris in British Byelections, one of the standard academic books on the subject. And Anthony Wells made a similar point on his UK Polling Report blog last night. |
| Anyway, let's assume the results are as the polls suggest – that the Liberal Democrats narrowly hold the seat over the Conservatives, UKIP do extremely well and Labour get squeezed down to fourth place. Journalists will write comment pieces concluding that the Lib Dems will do much better than the polls suggest as they'll still be able to get tactical support from Labour, that UKIP pose a serious threat to the Conservatives and that UKIP voters DON'T seem willing to vote tactically for the Tories and, for the Conservative leaning amongst them, that the poor Labour performance shows that Ed Miliband's "One Nation" mantra is just empty words. | Anyway, let's assume the results are as the polls suggest – that the Liberal Democrats narrowly hold the seat over the Conservatives, UKIP do extremely well and Labour get squeezed down to fourth place. Journalists will write comment pieces concluding that the Lib Dems will do much better than the polls suggest as they'll still be able to get tactical support from Labour, that UKIP pose a serious threat to the Conservatives and that UKIP voters DON'T seem willing to vote tactically for the Tories and, for the Conservative leaning amongst them, that the poor Labour performance shows that Ed Miliband's "One Nation" mantra is just empty words. |
| All of these conclusions are nonsense. | All of these conclusions are nonsense. |
| Or at least, while some of them may very well be true, none of them will be things we can tell from Eastleigh. Firstly, if it votes in line with the polls Eastleigh doesn't really show the Lib Dems withstanding the national swing in seats they hold. In the final Ashcroft poll they were down 14 points on their general election score, which is pretty much what the polls show is happening to their national support. Secondly, I wouldn't conclude anything about tactical voting either Lab to LD or UKIP to Con – by-elections are very special cases, voters get an intense amount of literature and contact from the parties imploring them to vote tactically and send a message, and their vote won't change who governs so in many ways people are free to vote without consequence. The argument about Labour's one nation message is just point scoring – it is perfectly normal for a third party to be squeezed in a tight by-election and despite the exuberance of some Labour supporters at the start of the campaign it was bleeding bloody obvious from the beginning that Labour had no hope whatsoever in this seat. | Or at least, while some of them may very well be true, none of them will be things we can tell from Eastleigh. Firstly, if it votes in line with the polls Eastleigh doesn't really show the Lib Dems withstanding the national swing in seats they hold. In the final Ashcroft poll they were down 14 points on their general election score, which is pretty much what the polls show is happening to their national support. Secondly, I wouldn't conclude anything about tactical voting either Lab to LD or UKIP to Con – by-elections are very special cases, voters get an intense amount of literature and contact from the parties imploring them to vote tactically and send a message, and their vote won't change who governs so in many ways people are free to vote without consequence. The argument about Labour's one nation message is just point scoring – it is perfectly normal for a third party to be squeezed in a tight by-election and despite the exuberance of some Labour supporters at the start of the campaign it was bleeding bloody obvious from the beginning that Labour had no hope whatsoever in this seat. |
| Although Wells is exaggerating for effect, he's largely right. | Although Wells is exaggerating for effect, he's largely right. |
| And yet, as he goes on to point out, that doesn't mean byelections like Eastleigh aren't important. They are – not because they tell us anything particularly new about which party is up and which party is down, but because politicians think that they do. An election win is a solid event that confers authority, and after tonight either David Cameron or Nick Clegg (or conceivably both, but don't bet on it) is going to look like a loser. In a way that is hard to quantify, that will matter. | And yet, as he goes on to point out, that doesn't mean byelections like Eastleigh aren't important. They are – not because they tell us anything particularly new about which party is up and which party is down, but because politicians think that they do. An election win is a solid event that confers authority, and after tonight either David Cameron or Nick Clegg (or conceivably both, but don't bet on it) is going to look like a loser. In a way that is hard to quantify, that will matter. |
| Eastleigh is interesting partly because it is only the fifth time since 1945 that the Lib Dems, or their predecessors the Liberals, have defended a parliamentary seat in a byelection. But the main reason why swarms of journalists have come to this Hampshire town to cover this campaign is that it is the first time since 2010 that the two coalition parties have gone head to head in a byelection. Cameron needs to win to show that he has a realistic chance of winning an outright majority in 2015. Clegg needs to win to show that, when the general election comes, the Lib Dems can avoid a wipeout. That's why it is billed as the most important contest of its kind for 30 years. | Eastleigh is interesting partly because it is only the fifth time since 1945 that the Lib Dems, or their predecessors the Liberals, have defended a parliamentary seat in a byelection. But the main reason why swarms of journalists have come to this Hampshire town to cover this campaign is that it is the first time since 2010 that the two coalition parties have gone head to head in a byelection. Cameron needs to win to show that he has a realistic chance of winning an outright majority in 2015. Clegg needs to win to show that, when the general election comes, the Lib Dems can avoid a wipeout. That's why it is billed as the most important contest of its kind for 30 years. |
| And there's another factor in play too. This byelection seems likely to mark another step in the rise of Ukip. In November last year in Corby, when Ukip got 14%, it was their best ever result in a byelection. Two weeks later it got 22% in Rotherham and tonight it could do even better. With not a single MP in the Commons, Ukip is still in many respects a fringe party. But, in byelections, it is establishing itself as one of the four main parties in English politics. | And there's another factor in play too. This byelection seems likely to mark another step in the rise of Ukip. In November last year in Corby, when Ukip got 14%, it was their best ever result in a byelection. Two weeks later it got 22% in Rotherham and tonight it could do even better. With not a single MP in the Commons, Ukip is still in many respects a fringe party. But, in byelections, it is establishing itself as one of the four main parties in English politics. |
| I'm at the Fleming Park leisure centre in Eastleigh, where the counting will start after the polls close at 10pm. As I write, the media consensus seems to be that the Lib Dems will win, and that Ukip are challenging the Tories for second place. But, of course, no one really knows. It should be an exciting night, and I'll be reporting on all the developments as they happen. | I'm at the Fleming Park leisure centre in Eastleigh, where the counting will start after the polls close at 10pm. As I write, the media consensus seems to be that the Lib Dems will win, and that Ukip are challenging the Tories for second place. But, of course, no one really knows. It should be an exciting night, and I'll be reporting on all the developments as they happen. |