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The Eastleigh byelection: the lessons for Labour The Eastleigh byelection: the lessons for Labour
(7 months later)
As the dust settles on a historic byelection, all the major parties will be assessing the result's implications. Eastleigh was never a seat that Labour could expect to win, having come a dismal third in 2010. But Labour has to show it is capable of getting a hearing here to have a chance of victory at a general election. The party will not win by amassing more votes in northern England and the celtic heartlands.As the dust settles on a historic byelection, all the major parties will be assessing the result's implications. Eastleigh was never a seat that Labour could expect to win, having come a dismal third in 2010. But Labour has to show it is capable of getting a hearing here to have a chance of victory at a general election. The party will not win by amassing more votes in northern England and the celtic heartlands.
The test in Eastleigh, as elsewhere in the south, is whether voters understand what one nation Labour is about. So how can Ed Miliband define the concept more clearly in the minds of voters?The test in Eastleigh, as elsewhere in the south, is whether voters understand what one nation Labour is about. So how can Ed Miliband define the concept more clearly in the minds of voters?
First, one nation Labour must restore the party's reputation for economic competence and fiscal discipline. Ed Balls has been proved right: premature fiscal consolidation has made the deficit worse, weakening the potential for growth. But no party has secured a parliamentary majority in postwar British politics without winning the electorate's trust on the economy.First, one nation Labour must restore the party's reputation for economic competence and fiscal discipline. Ed Balls has been proved right: premature fiscal consolidation has made the deficit worse, weakening the potential for growth. But no party has secured a parliamentary majority in postwar British politics without winning the electorate's trust on the economy.
More policy grit would be welcome: why, for instance, should Labour not redefine the Bank of England's inflation target to include asset, as well as consumer, price inflation? The coalition and the Bank are wilfully ignoring inflation, allowing prices to rise in order to eradicate debt but further squeezing lower income families. A revised inflation target would help safeguard the economy from shocks. Once economic recovery has been established, the party should impose its own its own fiscal rule: the goal of a balanced budget for current expenditure, policed by an independent Office for Budgetary Responsibility.More policy grit would be welcome: why, for instance, should Labour not redefine the Bank of England's inflation target to include asset, as well as consumer, price inflation? The coalition and the Bank are wilfully ignoring inflation, allowing prices to rise in order to eradicate debt but further squeezing lower income families. A revised inflation target would help safeguard the economy from shocks. Once economic recovery has been established, the party should impose its own its own fiscal rule: the goal of a balanced budget for current expenditure, policed by an independent Office for Budgetary Responsibility.
Moreover, Labour must demonstrate it has a credible growth strategy. Miliband's promise to reintroduce the 10p starting rate of tax, funded by a mansion tax, reinforced Labour's credentials as a party of redistribution. But it has to be a party of production too. It needs a plan to create wealth while enhancing the productive potential of the economy. How, for instance, will the proposed state investment bank encourage thriving businesses in towns like Eastleigh? Equally, Labour must show it understands the tight fiscal context. Most voters in the squeezed middle believe the burden of taxation on average incomes is high enough. Labour should say so.Moreover, Labour must demonstrate it has a credible growth strategy. Miliband's promise to reintroduce the 10p starting rate of tax, funded by a mansion tax, reinforced Labour's credentials as a party of redistribution. But it has to be a party of production too. It needs a plan to create wealth while enhancing the productive potential of the economy. How, for instance, will the proposed state investment bank encourage thriving businesses in towns like Eastleigh? Equally, Labour must show it understands the tight fiscal context. Most voters in the squeezed middle believe the burden of taxation on average incomes is high enough. Labour should say so.
Finally, one nation Labour must convey an appetite for radicalism. Voters in southern England care about more than the size of their pay packet. The Southern Discomfort research carried out for Policy Network found that voters are anxious about the future, and doubtful their children will have the same opportunities they had. They recognise that a low-wage, low-skill, low-productivity economy squeezes living standards and exacerbates inequality.Finally, one nation Labour must convey an appetite for radicalism. Voters in southern England care about more than the size of their pay packet. The Southern Discomfort research carried out for Policy Network found that voters are anxious about the future, and doubtful their children will have the same opportunities they had. They recognise that a low-wage, low-skill, low-productivity economy squeezes living standards and exacerbates inequality.
Labour's anticipated reforms of the skills system, labour markets, corporate governance and top pay are welcome. But more fresh thinking is needed: it must redefine the notion of Britain as a "property-owning democracy". Not in the narrow sense of private home ownership, but by radically redistributing wealth and assets.Labour's anticipated reforms of the skills system, labour markets, corporate governance and top pay are welcome. But more fresh thinking is needed: it must redefine the notion of Britain as a "property-owning democracy". Not in the narrow sense of private home ownership, but by radically redistributing wealth and assets.
Instead of squandering the public stake in the rescued banks with a share giveaway, as George Osborne is poised to announce, the proceeds ought to be used to pay down the country's debt while funding a capital endowment for citizens at the age of 18 – a bolder version of the child trust fund. A universal capital grant would help support an expanded social housing programme based on shared equity. Removing borrowing restrictions on councils would provide more affordable homes for rent, enabling young people to get a foot on the housing ladder.Instead of squandering the public stake in the rescued banks with a share giveaway, as George Osborne is poised to announce, the proceeds ought to be used to pay down the country's debt while funding a capital endowment for citizens at the age of 18 – a bolder version of the child trust fund. A universal capital grant would help support an expanded social housing programme based on shared equity. Removing borrowing restrictions on councils would provide more affordable homes for rent, enabling young people to get a foot on the housing ladder.
Southern electors deserve an alternative to the coalition parties. The Conservatives and Lib Dems are perceived as economically prudent but harsh and unfair. Labour is viewed as caring but lacking the resolve to be a party of government. The voters deserve a governing party which ensures that even in tough times, economic efficiency and social justice go hand in hand.Southern electors deserve an alternative to the coalition parties. The Conservatives and Lib Dems are perceived as economically prudent but harsh and unfair. Labour is viewed as caring but lacking the resolve to be a party of government. The voters deserve a governing party which ensures that even in tough times, economic efficiency and social justice go hand in hand.
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