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Lib Dems eye marginal Tory seats after Eastleigh byelection victory Lib Dems eye marginal Tory seats after Eastleigh byelection victory
(7 months later)
Ebullient Liberal Democrats responded to the party's narrow victory in the Eastleigh byelection by claiming the result had changed the course of this parliament, with the party now capable not only of retaining the majority of its existing 57 seats in 2015, but of making 20 or so Tory seats vulnerable.Ebullient Liberal Democrats responded to the party's narrow victory in the Eastleigh byelection by claiming the result had changed the course of this parliament, with the party now capable not only of retaining the majority of its existing 57 seats in 2015, but of making 20 or so Tory seats vulnerable.
One cabinet member said the win had transformed "the whole mood", likening the situation to the lifting of a siege. He said the Liberal Democrat spring conference next weekend would be a celebration of Nick Clegg's resilience.One cabinet member said the win had transformed "the whole mood", likening the situation to the lifting of a siege. He said the Liberal Democrat spring conference next weekend would be a celebration of Nick Clegg's resilience.
Bleary-eyed aides admitted that if Clegg had lost Eastleigh his leadership would have been under threat. The issue looks closed for this parliament.Bleary-eyed aides admitted that if Clegg had lost Eastleigh his leadership would have been under threat. The issue looks closed for this parliament.
There were claims, too, that the party could be more demanding in its negotiations inside the coalition over the budget and spending review.There were claims, too, that the party could be more demanding in its negotiations inside the coalition over the budget and spending review.
Clegg went to Eastleigh for a sixth time following the calling of the byelection after the resignation of the MP Chris Huhne.Clegg went to Eastleigh for a sixth time following the calling of the byelection after the resignation of the MP Chris Huhne.
"For the Liberal Democrats, my view is the message is very simple: we can be a party of government and still win," Clegg said. "We held our nerve, we stood our ground, we worked as a team, we worked out and campaigned on every doorstep. Two and a half years ago when we entered into coalition with the Conservatives our critics said we'd lose our identity, lose our soul and ability to win. Last night we proved those critics emphatically wrong.""For the Liberal Democrats, my view is the message is very simple: we can be a party of government and still win," Clegg said. "We held our nerve, we stood our ground, we worked as a team, we worked out and campaigned on every doorstep. Two and a half years ago when we entered into coalition with the Conservatives our critics said we'd lose our identity, lose our soul and ability to win. Last night we proved those critics emphatically wrong."
One party official said: "Look at the context: an MP who has resigned, a party mired in scandal, implementing cuts, nowhere in the polls, mid term and the press after us."One party official said: "Look at the context: an MP who has resigned, a party mired in scandal, implementing cuts, nowhere in the polls, mid term and the press after us."
Tim Farron, the Lib Dems' president, who is slated to succeed Clegg, said: "This totally changes the narrative of politics within the coalition. If the Conservatives can't beat us after the circumstances in which this byelection was called and after the week we had, then crumbs, this is massive, isn't it? The commentators have got egg all over the face."Tim Farron, the Lib Dems' president, who is slated to succeed Clegg, said: "This totally changes the narrative of politics within the coalition. If the Conservatives can't beat us after the circumstances in which this byelection was called and after the week we had, then crumbs, this is massive, isn't it? The commentators have got egg all over the face."
Defeat by just one vote would have been "an unspeakable catastrophe", he added.Defeat by just one vote would have been "an unspeakable catastrophe", he added.
He admitted Lib Dem MPs had been thinking "can we win our seats next time round?" but they "now realised they were fortresses".He admitted Lib Dem MPs had been thinking "can we win our seats next time round?" but they "now realised they were fortresses".
Farron added: "It tells you where the Liberal Democrats have got strength on the ground, good councils, good organisations we can not just win but win well.Farron added: "It tells you where the Liberal Democrats have got strength on the ground, good councils, good organisations we can not just win but win well.
"It also shows you the [Tory] position is a lot weaker in Conservative-Liberal Democrat marginals … it tells you an awful lot about a critical, perhaps 10-15%, of parliamentary seats in this country.""It also shows you the [Tory] position is a lot weaker in Conservative-Liberal Democrat marginals … it tells you an awful lot about a critical, perhaps 10-15%, of parliamentary seats in this country."
He claimed his party could take three seats in Cornwall from the Tories, as well as Conservative seats in Hampshire. The party also believed that Clegg's decision to run a short campaign had been vindicated as it left the Tories little option but to select their previously weak candidate, Maria Hutchings.He claimed his party could take three seats in Cornwall from the Tories, as well as Conservative seats in Hampshire. The party also believed that Clegg's decision to run a short campaign had been vindicated as it left the Tories little option but to select their previously weak candidate, Maria Hutchings.
The party claimed that for the first time it had successfully merged national and local messages, strongly defending the government's record in the campaign, and more effectively than the Conservatives.The party claimed that for the first time it had successfully merged national and local messages, strongly defending the government's record in the campaign, and more effectively than the Conservatives.
"If the Tories now respond to this by heading off to the right in search of Ukip votes, well that will make our day," said one official."If the Tories now respond to this by heading off to the right in search of Ukip votes, well that will make our day," said one official.
Some of this exuberance could be excessive, induced by relief and little sleep. The swing against the Conservatives was 14%, but the Lib Dem vote fell by 14.5%, and Mike Thornton, the party's candidate won just 32% of the vote. They sneaked home in a three-way split.Some of this exuberance could be excessive, induced by relief and little sleep. The swing against the Conservatives was 14%, but the Lib Dem vote fell by 14.5%, and Mike Thornton, the party's candidate won just 32% of the vote. They sneaked home in a three-way split.
Eastleigh was only 15th on the Tories' target list of Lib Dem seats, and the party is uniquely well dug-in, having held the seat for 15 years. It is easier to pour activists into a byelection than a general election, which leaves support more thinly spread. And, in a general election it is harder to convince voters to focus on local gravel-pit politics.Eastleigh was only 15th on the Tories' target list of Lib Dem seats, and the party is uniquely well dug-in, having held the seat for 15 years. It is easier to pour activists into a byelection than a general election, which leaves support more thinly spread. And, in a general election it is harder to convince voters to focus on local gravel-pit politics.
Gavin Barwell, a former party organiser and MP for Croydon central, said: "When I was out knocking on doors I met elector after elector who said they were voting Liberal Democrat because 'they do a good job round here'.Gavin Barwell, a former party organiser and MP for Croydon central, said: "When I was out knocking on doors I met elector after elector who said they were voting Liberal Democrat because 'they do a good job round here'.
"At the general election we'll have an additional argument at our disposal – we'll be able to say that unless people vote Conservative there's a real risk they will end up with Ed Miliband as prime minister.""At the general election we'll have an additional argument at our disposal – we'll be able to say that unless people vote Conservative there's a real risk they will end up with Ed Miliband as prime minister."
The Lib Dem vote is also more likely to erode in its northern seats where Labour is the chief challenger. The party insists it can still squeeze the Tory vote in these Labour-held seats, so protecting the eight Lib Dem seats that could fall to Labour on just a 4% swing.The Lib Dem vote is also more likely to erode in its northern seats where Labour is the chief challenger. The party insists it can still squeeze the Tory vote in these Labour-held seats, so protecting the eight Lib Dem seats that could fall to Labour on just a 4% swing.
With many of these seats the Lib Dems are going to encounter a better oiled machine, run by Labour, than the rickety operation the Tories fielded in Eastleigh.With many of these seats the Lib Dems are going to encounter a better oiled machine, run by Labour, than the rickety operation the Tories fielded in Eastleigh.
But for this weekend there is the rare taste of success. Next week harsh reality returns. For some it has not gone away; Huhne, for instance, has to face his sentencing.But for this weekend there is the rare taste of success. Next week harsh reality returns. For some it has not gone away; Huhne, for instance, has to face his sentencing.
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