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Kenyan Accused by Rights Court Is Leading Vote Kenyan Accused by Rights Court Is Leading Vote
(about 2 hours later)
NAIROBI, Kenya — Uhuru Kenyatta, a Kenyan politician who has been charged by the International Criminal Court with crimes against humanity, was leading by a wide margin in the Kenya election on Tuesday, with nearly half the votes counted. NAIROBI, Kenya — Confusion and anxiety rose in Kenya on Tuesday as results from the presidential election were delayed by electronic breakdowns and officials announced a late-night change in tabulating votes, leading several observers to predict that a runoff might ensue.
Mr. Kenyatta, who comes from one of the richest, most powerful families in Africa and has been accused of bankrolling death squads that killed women and children during the chaos of Kenya’s election five years ago, was leading 54 percent to 42 percent over the second-place candidate, Raila Odinga, Kenya’s prime minister. Millions of Kenyans flooded into the polls on Monday and the voting itself went reasonably well, most observers said. But serious questions have begun to crop up in the tallying process, with unexplained delays in electronically transmitting the results from the polling places and public wrangling over which votes should be counted.
Given the deadly aftermath of Kenya’s last major election in 2007, which was marred by vote rigging and then erupted in bloodshed, any electoral breakdowns or disputes could tear at the public’s confidence in the vote, an outcome many people fear could set off violence again.
“I don’t think the situation looks good,” said Joel D. Barkan, a senior associate for the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “We are entering a quite potentially messy situation here.”
Tensions were rising in the slums. Truckloads of soldiers in helmets and padded suits chugged through the streets, eyeing the crowds warily. Many shops remained shuttered, and Kenya’s police chief promptly banned all demonstrations, saying Kenya had “no history” of peaceful protests.
As of Tuesday night, about half the votes had been tallied, giving a relatively large lead to Uhuru Kenyatta, the scion of one of the wealthiest, most powerful political families in Africa, 53 percent to 42 percent over Kenya’s prime minister, Raila Odinga.
But there was a wrinkle.But there was a wrinkle.
Kenyan election law says that the winning candidate must secure more than 50 percent of “all the votes cast” and Mr. Odinga’s supporters say that the election commission must consider the more than 300,000 rejected ballots as part of the total. If that is the case, some analysts predicted that Mr. Kenyatta might not clear the 50 percent threshold, prompting a runoff. Kenyan election law says that the winning candidate must secure more than 50 percent of “all the votes cast” and late on Tuesday night, the election commission announced that it would include more than 300,000 rejected ballots as part of the total. With the pool of votes suddenly enlarged, several analysts said that both candidates would receive a smaller percentage of the total and that Mr. Kenyatta might not clear the 50 percent threshold, necessitating a runoff.
Ahmed Hassan, the head of Kenya’s election commission, conceded that the number of ballots rejected for stray marks and other irregularities was “quite worrying,” though election observers said it was not particularly surprising given the complexity of these elections and that voters had six ballots in their hands, for national and local races. Ahmed Hassan, the head of Kenya’s election commission, conceded that the number of ballots rejected for stray marks and other irregularities was “quite worrying,” though election observers said it was not particularly surprising given the complexity of these elections. Voters had six ballots in their hands, for national and local races.
As the results continued to trickle in, with Kenyans glued to their television sets and transistor radios, the grumblings were rising. Kenya’s police chief promptly banned all demonstrations, saying Kenya had “no history” of peaceful protests, and many shops here in Nairobi, the capital, remained shuttered, with shopkeepers not sure of what lies ahead. Police officers were everywhere, some wearing helmets and padded riot suits, others chugging through town in big trucks. “We feel the Constitution is very clear,” said Salim Lone, an adviser to Mr. Odinga. “The spoiled votes have to be included as part of the calculation.”
Preliminary results showed that Kenyan voters, who poured into the polls on Monday at dawn, with many then waiting 10 hours on their feet under a burning sun, voted overwhelmingly along ethnic lines. Some areas voted 98 percent for the politician from their ethnic group, while other areas, equally poor, with people in very similar circumstances, voted 98 percent in the opposite direction. Mr. Kenyatta’s camp expressed displeasure with the decision, which may mean a protracted court battle after the preliminary results are announced, expected in the coming days. The risk, analysts said, is that Mr. Kenyatta’s supporters might feel they were unfairly denied an outright victory.
“I guess we haven’t come very far,” said Maina Kiai, a prominent Kenyan human rights defender. “We still use identity as the only factor in voting.” Partial results showed that once again, Kenyans voted overwhelmingly along ethnic lines. Some areas voted 95 percent for the politician from their ethnic group, while other areas, equally poor, with people in very similar circumstances, voted 95 percent in the opposite direction.
This presidential election was the first one since 2007, when widespread evidence of vote rigging set off ethnic-based clashes that killed 1,000 people and brought Kenya’s economy to its knees. Enormous efforts were made this time around to move voters away from ethnicity and persuade them to consider other factors, like the candidate’s résumé or manifesto. The Kenyan media, considered one of the most independent and professional in Africa, even organized televised presidential debates, a first here. “I guess we haven’t come very far,” said Maina Kiai, a prominent Kenyan human rights advocate. “We still use identity as the only factor in voting.”
But in the end, the presidential candidates who tried to gain momentum on issues-based campaigns, like Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua, got almost no votes. It seemed that most voters still felt the leader from their ethnic group was the best one to protect them — especially in an edgy environment where many fear a replay of post-election violence. Enormous efforts were made this time around to move voters away from choices based on ethnicity and persuade them to consider other factors, like the candidate’s résumé or policy proposals. The Kenyan news media, considered among the most independent and professional in Africa, even organized televised presidential debates, a first.
But in the end, the presidential candidates who tried to gain some momentum on issues-based campaigns, like Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua, got a minuscule share of the vote. It seemed that most voters still felt that the leader from their ethnic group was the best one to protect them — especially in an edgy environment where many fear a replay of postelection violence.
“The ethnic vote is often the one based on fear,” Mr. Kiai said.“The ethnic vote is often the one based on fear,” Mr. Kiai said.
Kenya’s demographics favor Mr. Kenyatta. His ethnic group, the Kikuyu, is the country’s largest and along with the Meru and Embu, which often vote with them, make up 22 percent of the population. He then chose William Ruto, a Kalenjin, to be his running mate, and the Kalenjin are the third-largest group in the country. Mr. Odinga, a Luo, chose a Kamba running mate, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, but their combined numbers are far below the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance. Kenya’s ethnic arithmetic favors Mr. Kenyatta. His ethnic group, the Kikuyu, is the country’s largest, and along with the Meru and Embu, which often vote with it, they represent 22 percent of the population. He then chose William Ruto, a Kalenjin, to be his running mate, and the Kalenjin are the third-largest group in the country.
Many Western officials have warned that Kenya will face “consequences” should Mr. Kenyatta win because of the grave charges against him. Mr. Odinga, a Luo, chose a Kamba running mate, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, but their combined numbers are far below the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance. Mr. Ruto has also been indicted on charges of crimes against humanity in connection with the election violence in 2007 and 2008.
But here in Kenya, the International Criminal Court may have actually driven turnout for Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Ruto, who has also been charged with crimes against humanity. Many voters said they felt that if the two won, they would have a better chance of beating the charges.
“If Uhuru’s president, it will be harder to send him to The Hague,” said Terry Wamitha, a vegetable seller in Limuru, a Kikuyu-dominated area outside of Nairobi.
Another Kenyatta supporter, Joseph Koech, a road engineer, said, “this election isn’t about tribes, it’s about the West.”
He explained: “We believe the I.C.C. is a tool of Western countries to manipulate undeveloped countries. That’s why we voted for Uhuru, against the West.”
Kisumu, a city in western Kenya and Mr. Odinga’s ethnic stronghold, which exploded in riots in 2007 and 2008 during the last presidential election, was quiet on Tuesday.Kisumu, a city in western Kenya and Mr. Odinga’s ethnic stronghold, which exploded in riots in 2007 and 2008 during the last presidential election, was quiet on Tuesday.
“We’re just waiting,” said Christine Ololo Atieno, a seller of secondhand shoes and a passionate Odinga supporter. “People are still hoping that more votes will come in and things will change.”“We’re just waiting,” said Christine Ololo Atieno, a seller of secondhand shoes and a passionate Odinga supporter. “People are still hoping that more votes will come in and things will change.”
Mr. Odinga says he was cheated out of winning the last election, and many analysts say that Kisumu could explode again if there is vote rigging and Mr. Odinga loses again.Mr. Odinga says he was cheated out of winning the last election, and many analysts say that Kisumu could explode again if there is vote rigging and Mr. Odinga loses again.