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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| After Hugo Chávez: four challenges facing Venezuela's new leader | After Hugo Chávez: four challenges facing Venezuela's new leader |
| (10 days later) | |
| Murderous crime rates | Murderous crime rates |
| With guns prevalent, drugs rife and local militias often stronger than the police, the public security situation has reached alarming levels. | With guns prevalent, drugs rife and local militias often stronger than the police, the public security situation has reached alarming levels. |
| Venezuela has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world after a nearly fourfold rise in murders since 1998. In 2011, this country of 30 million people suffered almost as many killings as the US and the EU combined. Polls suggest this is now the major concern of voters. | Venezuela has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world after a nearly fourfold rise in murders since 1998. In 2011, this country of 30 million people suffered almost as many killings as the US and the EU combined. Polls suggest this is now the major concern of voters. |
| The prison system has become a training ground for criminals. Mobsters run jails and administer lethal justice to inmates who refuse their orders. Attempts by the security forces to restore order and confiscate guns and drugs from cells have resulted in prolonged and deadly standoffs. | The prison system has become a training ground for criminals. Mobsters run jails and administer lethal justice to inmates who refuse their orders. Attempts by the security forces to restore order and confiscate guns and drugs from cells have resulted in prolonged and deadly standoffs. |
| There have also been sporadic incidents of political violence. Earlier this week, a group of several dozen students was assaulted as they protested outside the supreme court and demanded more information about the health of Hugo Chávez. The attackers, some of whom were armed with pistols, scattered the students' encampment and set fire to their tents. A Colombian journalist was also attacked by an angry mob while trying to report at the military hospital where Chávez had been receiving treatment. | There have also been sporadic incidents of political violence. Earlier this week, a group of several dozen students was assaulted as they protested outside the supreme court and demanded more information about the health of Hugo Chávez. The attackers, some of whom were armed with pistols, scattered the students' encampment and set fire to their tents. A Colombian journalist was also attacked by an angry mob while trying to report at the military hospital where Chávez had been receiving treatment. |
| Soaring inflation | Soaring inflation |
| After 14 years of rule by Chávez, Venezuela has been left with a more equal society but a less balanced economy. | After 14 years of rule by Chávez, Venezuela has been left with a more equal society but a less balanced economy. |
| Poverty has fallen after decade of record revenues from crude sales in the country with the world's biggest oil reserves, and income disparities have narrowed impressively to one of the lowest levels in the western hemisphere. But this Opec nation is plagued by debt, inflation and currency distortions. | Poverty has fallen after decade of record revenues from crude sales in the country with the world's biggest oil reserves, and income disparities have narrowed impressively to one of the lowest levels in the western hemisphere. But this Opec nation is plagued by debt, inflation and currency distortions. |
| The government recently devalued the currency by 30% – the fifth effort in the past 10 years to reduce a crippling gap between the official rate and the black market in dollars. | The government recently devalued the currency by 30% – the fifth effort in the past 10 years to reduce a crippling gap between the official rate and the black market in dollars. |
| Inflation is now running at more than 22%, according to the central bank. Private estimates put it above 30%. | Inflation is now running at more than 22%, according to the central bank. Private estimates put it above 30%. |
| With costs high, incentives low and management poor, there is little domestic production or investment. This leads to an unbalanced economy in which exports of anything other than oil have virtually dried up and expropriations of land and property have stifled businesses in other areas. | With costs high, incentives low and management poor, there is little domestic production or investment. This leads to an unbalanced economy in which exports of anything other than oil have virtually dried up and expropriations of land and property have stifled businesses in other areas. |
| Public infrastructure investment has also been weak, resulting in shoddy roads and inadequate transport systems. | Public infrastructure investment has also been weak, resulting in shoddy roads and inadequate transport systems. |
| Political gulfs | Political gulfs |
| The coming election for a successor to Chávez is likely to underscore the deep divisions in Venezuela between and among Chavistas – whose strongholds are in the barrios – and their opponents, most of whom are middle-class. They share little common ground, not least because almost no public institution is neutral. The army, the civil service, judiciary and oil industry have all been politicised. Civil rights groups and freedom of expression organisations have expressed concern about the intimidation of critics, the controls placed on the media and the use of public broadcasters to project a solely government viewpoint. | The coming election for a successor to Chávez is likely to underscore the deep divisions in Venezuela between and among Chavistas – whose strongholds are in the barrios – and their opponents, most of whom are middle-class. They share little common ground, not least because almost no public institution is neutral. The army, the civil service, judiciary and oil industry have all been politicised. Civil rights groups and freedom of expression organisations have expressed concern about the intimidation of critics, the controls placed on the media and the use of public broadcasters to project a solely government viewpoint. |
| The unity of the ruling coalition will be tested without Chávez, who rallied a diverse coalition under his charismatic leadership. As his chosen successor, Nicolás Maduro will expect similar support but others in the party and the Chávez family also have considerable influence. Potential rivals, such as Diosdado Cabello – the speaker of the national assembly who has strong ties to the military – have pledged their loyalty, but it will be tested if the new leader has to make cuts or other tough decisions. | The unity of the ruling coalition will be tested without Chávez, who rallied a diverse coalition under his charismatic leadership. As his chosen successor, Nicolás Maduro will expect similar support but others in the party and the Chávez family also have considerable influence. Potential rivals, such as Diosdado Cabello – the speaker of the national assembly who has strong ties to the military – have pledged their loyalty, but it will be tested if the new leader has to make cuts or other tough decisions. |
| The opposition is hardly in a more stable position. It has long been fragmented, but managed to unite behind Henrique Capriles for last year's presidential election. Whether they can retain this unity in the post-Chávez era remains to be seen. | The opposition is hardly in a more stable position. It has long been fragmented, but managed to unite behind Henrique Capriles for last year's presidential election. Whether they can retain this unity in the post-Chávez era remains to be seen. |
| Foreign friends and enemies | Foreign friends and enemies |
| Under Chávez, Venezuela realigned itself politically away from the United States, moved closer to China, Russia and Cuba, and spearheaded regional integration. Thanks to a combination of oil largesse and strong anti-imperialist rhetoric, it has taken something of a leadership role in Latin America, which has given it a more prominent role on the world stage. Chávez – with Maduro as his foreign minister – has embraced Iran, Syria and Libya, and borrowed heavily from China, while also being credited with an influential role in the peace process that has eased tensions in conflict-torn Colombia. The US, which has continued to be a major buyer of Venezuelan oil despite the political rhetoric, will hope that his successor takes a different stance. | Under Chávez, Venezuela realigned itself politically away from the United States, moved closer to China, Russia and Cuba, and spearheaded regional integration. Thanks to a combination of oil largesse and strong anti-imperialist rhetoric, it has taken something of a leadership role in Latin America, which has given it a more prominent role on the world stage. Chávez – with Maduro as his foreign minister – has embraced Iran, Syria and Libya, and borrowed heavily from China, while also being credited with an influential role in the peace process that has eased tensions in conflict-torn Colombia. The US, which has continued to be a major buyer of Venezuelan oil despite the political rhetoric, will hope that his successor takes a different stance. |
| Maduro – who is close to Cuba – is unlikely to make any dramatic public change and started the post-Chávez era by expelling two US diplomats. But once the election is passed he may look to make more deals with the US to ease the country's economic difficulties. | Maduro – who is close to Cuba – is unlikely to make any dramatic public change and started the post-Chávez era by expelling two US diplomats. But once the election is passed he may look to make more deals with the US to ease the country's economic difficulties. |
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