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Uhuru Kenyatta poised for victory in Kenyan election Uhuru Kenyatta wins Kenyan election by slimmest margin
(about 5 hours later)
Uhuru Kenyatta, accused by the international criminal court (ICC) of committing crimes against humanity, looked set on Friday night to win Kenya's presidency. But there were concerns about the credibility of a vote in which deputy prime minister Kenyatta led the prime minister, Raila Odinga, by about 7% with more than 80% of constituencies having reported. Diplomats were worried they might have to weaken ties with the East African nation if Kenyatta is elected. Kenya's election commission announced early Saturday that Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta had prevailed in the country's presidential elections by the slimmest of margins, winning 50.03% of the vote according to provisional figures.
The ballot went off relatively smoothly on Monday, despite widespread fears of violence. Five years ago, more than 1,200 people were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced over disputed polls, and Kenyatta is accused of organising that violence. But excepting a few coastal skirmishes, this time the elections were peaceful, winning praise from international observers. Diplomats were worried they might have to weaken ties with the east African nation if Kenyatta is elected because he faces charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal court at The Hague. The result will almost certainly be challenged in the courts by his opponent, the prime minister Raila Odinga.
However, the vote counting has been marred by delays and technological breakdowns since then. The problems began almost immediately when thousands of electronic voter identification devices failed, forcing poll workers to use the slower method of printed lists. Once voting finished, bigger problems started, beginning with a glitch in an electronic transmission system designed to securely send results to the national tallying centre in Nairobi. The ballot went off relatively smoothly on Monday, despite widespread fears of violence. Five years ago, more than 1,200 people were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced over disputed polls, and Kenyatta is accused of organising that violence. But, apart from a few coastal skirmishes, this time the elections were peaceful, winning praise from international observers.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) identified the problem as low disk space which caused a slowdown in transmission, and declared the issue solved. But by Wednesday afternoon, only 40% of results were in, so IEBC chairperson, Ahmed Issack Hassan, decided to scrap the whole apparatus and call the 291 constituency officers to Nairobi for a manual tally. However, the count was marred by delays and technological breakdowns. The problems began almost immediately when thousands of electronic voter identification devices failed, forcing poll workers to use the slower method of printed lists. Once voting finished, bigger problems started, beginning with a glitch in an electronic transmission system designed to securely send results to the national tallying centre in Nairobi.
That decision brought even more headaches. "The electronic transmission was to be verified by the manual form," said Maina Kiai, founder of the Kenya Human Rights Commission. "When you kill that off, the only record is the manual, and that was the whole problem the last election." With no backup, Hassan has simply asked Kenyans to trust him. Hassan tried to expedite things by barring observers and political party agents from the tallying centre floor. But that led Odinga's running mate, Kalonzo Musyoka, to demand an immediate halt to the "doctored" process. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission identified the problem as low disk space, which caused a slowdown in transmission, and declared the issue solved.
Another challenge came from the African Centre for Open Governance (AfriCOG), which filed a suit on Friday against the IEBC to stop tallying until all concerns were addressed. That case was thrown out, but the IEBC's embarrassments are well known. "There will be court cases like hell," said Kiai. But by Wednesday afternoon, only 40% of results were in, so IEBC chairperson, Ahmed Issack Hassan, decided to scrap the whole apparatus and call the 291 constituency officers to Nairobi for a manual tally.
From the outset, Kenyatta has kept ahead, hovering around 50% of cast votes compared with Odinga's rough 43%. Kenyatta must break 50% or face an April runoff. Between Kenyatta and victory are some 100,000 rejected votes. If they are left out of the total "cast votes", Kenyatta is in winning territory, but if included, Kenyatta's percentage falls below the threshold. His campaign protested against the inclusion of rejected ballots in any calculations, even accusing the UK high commissioner to Kenya, Christian Turner, of being behind the idea to deny Kenyatta the presidency. Turner, who has stated the UK's position of limited contact with ICC indictees, strongly denied the claims. That decision brought even more headaches. "The electronic transmission was to be verified by the manual form," said Maina Kiai, founder of the Kenya Human Rights Commission.
Kenya is at a standstill. The longer the count drags on, the more anxious people become, and the less credible final results might appear. Steve Oduor, a barber in Nairobi's Kibera slum, told the Guardian: "They are taking too long and it's beginning to feel like something is going down that we know nothing about. In 2007, they also took too long. Maybe they are trying to make us feel like the same way." "When you kill that off, the only record is the manual, and that was the whole problem the last election." With no backup, Hassan has simply asked Kenyans to trust him. Hassan tried to expedite things by barring observers and political party agents from the tallying centre floor. But that led Odinga's running mate, Kalonzo Musyoka, to demand an immediate halt to the "doctored" process.
Another challenge came from the African Centre for Open Governance (AfriCog), which has filed a suit against the IEBC to stop tallying until all concerns were addressed.
That case was thrown out, but further legal actions are expected.
From the outset, Kenyatta had kept ahead, hovering around 50% of cast votes compared with Odinga's rough 43%. If Kenyatta had not broken through the 50% barrier he would have faced a runoff next month. Kenyans hoped this vote would restore their nation's reputation as one of Africa's most stable democracies after the tribal slaughter that followed the disputed 2007 vote that Odinga said Mwai Kibaki stole from him.
The test will be whether any challenges to the outcome are worked out in the courts of the newly reformed judiciary, and do not spill over into the streets, as they did in 2007.