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Lib Dems' mood transformed despite Huhne and Pryce's disgrace Lib Dems' mood transformed despite Huhne and Pryce's disgrace
(7 months later)
Two of the Liberal Democrats' most senior figures – Chris Huhne and Vicky Pryce – may be preparing for jail, but the bulk of delegates arrive at the party's spring conference in Brighton like convicts reprieved from death row.Two of the Liberal Democrats' most senior figures – Chris Huhne and Vicky Pryce – may be preparing for jail, but the bulk of delegates arrive at the party's spring conference in Brighton like convicts reprieved from death row.
The victory in the Eastleigh byelection has transformed the party's mood. Instead of contemplating a general election in which the Lib Dems were reduced to a Celtic south-west rump of 25 seats or so, the party believes it can hold well over 50 seats, and even gain a few. On those numbers Nick Clegg could again hold the balance of power after the 2015 election.The victory in the Eastleigh byelection has transformed the party's mood. Instead of contemplating a general election in which the Lib Dems were reduced to a Celtic south-west rump of 25 seats or so, the party believes it can hold well over 50 seats, and even gain a few. On those numbers Nick Clegg could again hold the balance of power after the 2015 election.
Tim Farron, the party president, underlined the importance of Eastleigh in his House Magazine interview suggesting in advance of the result the party's survival could not be guaranteed. Deploying a bizarre analogy he suggested: "We're a bit like cockroaches after a nuclear war, just a bit less smelly, we are made of sterner stuff."Tim Farron, the party president, underlined the importance of Eastleigh in his House Magazine interview suggesting in advance of the result the party's survival could not be guaranteed. Deploying a bizarre analogy he suggested: "We're a bit like cockroaches after a nuclear war, just a bit less smelly, we are made of sterner stuff."
Vince Cable in his interview with the Guardian also suggested Eastleigh had been critical. "If we had lost by one vote, it would have been a disaster, if we won by one vote, it was going to be a triumph."Vince Cable in his interview with the Guardian also suggested Eastleigh had been critical. "If we had lost by one vote, it would have been a disaster, if we won by one vote, it was going to be a triumph."
Until recently the Lib Dems did not have the cash to do any polling on the messages likely to work. But courtesy of a new donor, polling now completed suggests the party still has the potential to achieve a 20% share of the vote at the next election. The party believes it is currently polling around 12% and sees the further increase mainly coming from the centre ground being vacated by David Cameron and by Labour's failure to define itself more clearly.Until recently the Lib Dems did not have the cash to do any polling on the messages likely to work. But courtesy of a new donor, polling now completed suggests the party still has the potential to achieve a 20% share of the vote at the next election. The party believes it is currently polling around 12% and sees the further increase mainly coming from the centre ground being vacated by David Cameron and by Labour's failure to define itself more clearly.
Clegg believes the Eastleigh result shows the Tories cannot win an outright majority at the next election. One close ally said: "If they can't win Eastleigh after our MP was done for [perverting the course of justice] and our leader was criticised for allegedly failing to deal with a groping toad then when can they win?"Clegg believes the Eastleigh result shows the Tories cannot win an outright majority at the next election. One close ally said: "If they can't win Eastleigh after our MP was done for [perverting the course of justice] and our leader was criticised for allegedly failing to deal with a groping toad then when can they win?"
The leader now regards the May county council elections as the acid test of the Lib Dems' nationwide popularity. But at this conference he has to heal the wounds created by the damaging allegations against Lord Rennard, the party's former chief executive.The leader now regards the May county council elections as the acid test of the Lib Dems' nationwide popularity. But at this conference he has to heal the wounds created by the damaging allegations against Lord Rennard, the party's former chief executive.
In a speech to the party on Friday night Clegg admitted: "Women involved in the allegations feel let down. They deserved to have their concerns and allegations examined thoroughly and properly dealt with. But clearly, that has not always been the case.In a speech to the party on Friday night Clegg admitted: "Women involved in the allegations feel let down. They deserved to have their concerns and allegations examined thoroughly and properly dealt with. But clearly, that has not always been the case.
"When concerns were brought to the attention of members of my team we acted to address them. But this should not have just been the responsibility of a few individuals acting with the best of intentions. It must be the responsibility of the party as a whole.""When concerns were brought to the attention of members of my team we acted to address them. But this should not have just been the responsibility of a few individuals acting with the best of intentions. It must be the responsibility of the party as a whole."
He said Helena Morrissey, a champion of women in the boardroom, will lead the inquiry into how the party handled the allegations.He said Helena Morrissey, a champion of women in the boardroom, will lead the inquiry into how the party handled the allegations.
As he was making his speech Vince Cable, the business secretary, was addressing the social liberal forum, and urging a housebuilding programme to lift the economy. It is not clear that Clegg agrees with Cable, arguing any programme would require £40bn of spending to have any real impact, and would be likely only to lead to higher interest rates.As he was making his speech Vince Cable, the business secretary, was addressing the social liberal forum, and urging a housebuilding programme to lift the economy. It is not clear that Clegg agrees with Cable, arguing any programme would require £40bn of spending to have any real impact, and would be likely only to lead to higher interest rates.
Cable demurs: "To most people it seems merely common sense that in a crisis where the private sector lacks the confidence to invest, the government should do so: building modern infrastructure or giving councils the freedom to build affordable homes. Historically low interest rates mean that government (and local government) can borrow to invest cheaply.Cable demurs: "To most people it seems merely common sense that in a crisis where the private sector lacks the confidence to invest, the government should do so: building modern infrastructure or giving councils the freedom to build affordable homes. Historically low interest rates mean that government (and local government) can borrow to invest cheaply.
"Some people say we mustn't frighten the horses. They say that any change in direction, however sensible, is too risky and will cause panic. There is of course a balance of risks and that mattered most when we came into office. But we should ask whether that balance of risks has changed.""Some people say we mustn't frighten the horses. They say that any change in direction, however sensible, is too risky and will cause panic. There is of course a balance of risks and that mattered most when we came into office. But we should ask whether that balance of risks has changed."
It is clear the business secretary thinks action is necessary and he tells the Guardian the capital injection into council housebuilding should be in the order of £15bn.It is clear the business secretary thinks action is necessary and he tells the Guardian the capital injection into council housebuilding should be in the order of £15bn.
Regardless of how the critical debates on spending play out over the next few months, Clegg is astounded by the foolishness of Conservative tactics. He retains good personal relations with Cameron but is disappointed that Cameron has not turned out to be the moderniser he first saw.Regardless of how the critical debates on spending play out over the next few months, Clegg is astounded by the foolishness of Conservative tactics. He retains good personal relations with Cameron but is disappointed that Cameron has not turned out to be the moderniser he first saw.
The AV referendum defeat, at the hands of old Labour and Tory money, changed the dynamic of the coalition. If there ever was a mushy, close feeling before the vote in May 2011 that has now disappeared. The strategic disaster of the lost Lords reform followed by Clegg's refusal to reform constituency boundaries meant the coalition turned into a hard-headed transaction.The AV referendum defeat, at the hands of old Labour and Tory money, changed the dynamic of the coalition. If there ever was a mushy, close feeling before the vote in May 2011 that has now disappeared. The strategic disaster of the lost Lords reform followed by Clegg's refusal to reform constituency boundaries meant the coalition turned into a hard-headed transaction.
The deputy prime minister recognises that pulling the constituency boundary reform – critical to Cameron's re-election – was provocative. He even told Cameron he would be as angry as him if he was in Cameron's shoes.The deputy prime minister recognises that pulling the constituency boundary reform – critical to Cameron's re-election – was provocative. He even told Cameron he would be as angry as him if he was in Cameron's shoes.
But experience has also narrowed the field in which the two party leaders can agree. One says a Venn diagram of the two parties' policies drawn at the start of the coalition would show a large area of inter-connection, but that common space is now much smaller. It is not likely to enlarge before 2015.But experience has also narrowed the field in which the two party leaders can agree. One says a Venn diagram of the two parties' policies drawn at the start of the coalition would show a large area of inter-connection, but that common space is now much smaller. It is not likely to enlarge before 2015.
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