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North Korea: tighten your seatbelt North Korea: tighten your seatbelt
(7 months later)
In the past two days alone North Korea has torn up an armistice it made with Seoul in 1953, Barack Obama's security adviser has warned Pyongyang that were it to carry out a nuclear attack, it would face "the full range of our capabilities", and China has announced it is going to send a team to survey a group of uninhabited islands which Japan claims as its own. While North Korea has abrogated the armistice at least seven times before, and much of drama in north-east Asia is ritually dismissed as rhetorical, there are genuine fears of an outbreak of hostilities.In the past two days alone North Korea has torn up an armistice it made with Seoul in 1953, Barack Obama's security adviser has warned Pyongyang that were it to carry out a nuclear attack, it would face "the full range of our capabilities", and China has announced it is going to send a team to survey a group of uninhabited islands which Japan claims as its own. While North Korea has abrogated the armistice at least seven times before, and much of drama in north-east Asia is ritually dismissed as rhetorical, there are genuine fears of an outbreak of hostilities.
First, it has happened before. The events now could merely be a rerun of tensions four years ago when sanctions over missile and nuclear tests ended in a sea skirmish which Seoul claimed it won. Four months later, North Korea torpedoed and sank a South Korean warship, with the loss of 46 lives, and later that year shelled an island, after South Korea ignored a warning to cancel a live-fire artillery drill. The then South Korean president Lee Myung-bak got hammered for what was seen domestically as a slow and weak response. No such option is available to his successor Park Geun-hye. If the same happens again in disputed Yellow Sea waters, South Korea has vowed to hit back hard.First, it has happened before. The events now could merely be a rerun of tensions four years ago when sanctions over missile and nuclear tests ended in a sea skirmish which Seoul claimed it won. Four months later, North Korea torpedoed and sank a South Korean warship, with the loss of 46 lives, and later that year shelled an island, after South Korea ignored a warning to cancel a live-fire artillery drill. The then South Korean president Lee Myung-bak got hammered for what was seen domestically as a slow and weak response. No such option is available to his successor Park Geun-hye. If the same happens again in disputed Yellow Sea waters, South Korea has vowed to hit back hard.
Second, successful nuclear and missile tests may actually have empowered North Korean generals to think that the South would not dare to respond to another provocation. One analyst has compared this to the seatbelt effect. After seatbelts were introduced in cars, a Chicago University economist, Sam Peltzman, noted that many drivers used the additional safety provided by the belts to drive more recklessly. He called it risk substitution. The same might be about to happen now. When the North Korean army supreme command said on 5 March that it will "make a strike of justice at any target any time as it pleases without limit", it might just mean it.Second, successful nuclear and missile tests may actually have empowered North Korean generals to think that the South would not dare to respond to another provocation. One analyst has compared this to the seatbelt effect. After seatbelts were introduced in cars, a Chicago University economist, Sam Peltzman, noted that many drivers used the additional safety provided by the belts to drive more recklessly. He called it risk substitution. The same might be about to happen now. When the North Korean army supreme command said on 5 March that it will "make a strike of justice at any target any time as it pleases without limit", it might just mean it.
Before we wander down the road of apocalyptic possibilities, it is worth noting what has not happened. For a country technically in a state of war with its neighbour, it is odd, to say the least, that it continues to allow 123 "enemy" companies to operate in a cross-border industrial zone employing over 50,000 of its workers. The hotline may have stopped working on Monday, but the flow of South Koreans trooping across the border to Kaesong was unimpeded on that day. The North has threatened to close the cross-border experiment, but so far it has not. More importantly, China has stopped backing its errant buffer state. It was one of the sponsors of the UN security council resolution that upgraded the sanctions from a request to an obligation. It is both frustrated and angry at North Korea's defiance, and – although China continually tells Japan it lacks leverage over North Korea – there is still much more it could do to make its displeasure felt.Before we wander down the road of apocalyptic possibilities, it is worth noting what has not happened. For a country technically in a state of war with its neighbour, it is odd, to say the least, that it continues to allow 123 "enemy" companies to operate in a cross-border industrial zone employing over 50,000 of its workers. The hotline may have stopped working on Monday, but the flow of South Koreans trooping across the border to Kaesong was unimpeded on that day. The North has threatened to close the cross-border experiment, but so far it has not. More importantly, China has stopped backing its errant buffer state. It was one of the sponsors of the UN security council resolution that upgraded the sanctions from a request to an obligation. It is both frustrated and angry at North Korea's defiance, and – although China continually tells Japan it lacks leverage over North Korea – there is still much more it could do to make its displeasure felt.
If any nuclear power succeeds in turning Kim Jong-un from his current course, it will be China. Which is why even media debates in South Korea and Japan about arming themselves with nuclear weapons are counterproductive. The key to solving the North Korean nuclear crisis remains Beijing. It will not be encouraged to do so by a nuclear arms race on its doorstep. That is also why the real cost of increasingly acerbic island disputes between the key regional powers China, Japan and South Korea is going up all the time. Other than endlessly repeating the historical arguments over sovereignty, which is a zero-sum game, a new UN-backed approach needs to be found which sidesteps the issue of ownership and concentrates instead on sharing and policing conservation of the sea around them.If any nuclear power succeeds in turning Kim Jong-un from his current course, it will be China. Which is why even media debates in South Korea and Japan about arming themselves with nuclear weapons are counterproductive. The key to solving the North Korean nuclear crisis remains Beijing. It will not be encouraged to do so by a nuclear arms race on its doorstep. That is also why the real cost of increasingly acerbic island disputes between the key regional powers China, Japan and South Korea is going up all the time. Other than endlessly repeating the historical arguments over sovereignty, which is a zero-sum game, a new UN-backed approach needs to be found which sidesteps the issue of ownership and concentrates instead on sharing and policing conservation of the sea around them.
In the midst of this regional turmoil, Taiwan – to which the disputed island chain known as the Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyutai in Taipei is closest and to which it is geologically linked – has the best solution. President Ma Ying-jeou has proposed a two-stage approach to solving the dispute between the three claimants, to which China has yet to respond. It should. There are bigger fish to fry.In the midst of this regional turmoil, Taiwan – to which the disputed island chain known as the Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyutai in Taipei is closest and to which it is geologically linked – has the best solution. President Ma Ying-jeou has proposed a two-stage approach to solving the dispute between the three claimants, to which China has yet to respond. It should. There are bigger fish to fry.
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