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Signs of Strain on Syria’s Military Build Shifting Tactics Show the Strain on Syria’s Military
(about 1 hour later)
BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Syrian Army is handing over more and more checkpoints to paramilitary groups of local civilians, giving up territory in the country’s northeast without much of a fight, and even enlisting the top state-appointed Muslim cleric as a recruiter — developments that analysts say point to the military’s continuing strain and deterioration. BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Syrian military’s ability to fight rebels and hold territory has steadily eroded, forcing it to cede the job of running many checkpoints to paramilitary groups, give up a provincial city last week without much of a fight and even enlist the top state-appointed Muslim cleric as a recruiter.
For nearly two years, the military, built to repel an Israeli invasion, has been fighting a completely different battle against a domestic insurgency, the kind of engagement that wears down equipment, brings a steady drumbeat of casualties and offers few clear-cut successes to lift morale. Though the government forces are still better armed and better organized than the rebels, two years of fighting have pushed the military to continue to scale back its ambitions and rethink its tactics. In recent days, the government has signaled a growing anxiety over its ability to refresh the depleted and exhausted ranks of soldiers, and has continued to consolidate its forces around the capital, Damascus.
As the government wages a war that a pro-government newspaper suggested on Tuesday could go on “for years,” it has continued to consolidate its forces around the capital, Damascus, and other central cities, and has placed new emphasis on mobilizing civilian supporters to take up arms for what it paints as an existential battle against foreign-financed terrorists. The expanse of Syria is now a patchwork, where the government retains at least a partial grip on most major cities but where the rebels have extended their authority across a growing swath of the north and northeast.
That strategy, analysts say, aims to relieve the military from the task for which it is most poorly suited — holding neighborhoods in an urban war — and to conserve its considerable remaining strength to protect the hub of President Bashar al-Assad’s power. Dozens of soldiers, cornered at a remote northeastern border post, recently fled into Iraq, where allies of the rebels eventually killed them. Around the country, numerous funerals for Syrian soldiers take place each day, not only sapping the military’s manpower but also cutting into its support and resolve, analysts say.
The results could be seen last week, as rebels swept into the northeastern city of Raqqa and, with an air of self-confidence, began setting up the beginnings of self-government. Although the government continues to pound the city with airstrikes, its capture increased the swath of territory in the north of the country where rebels hold sway on the ground. In Washington, James R. Clapper Jr., the director of national intelligence, appeared before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday and submitted written testimony saying that “the erosion of the Syrian regime’s capabilities is accelerating.” While the Syrian government has kept rebels from fully seizing the three largest cities, he said, “it has been unable to dislodge them” from their footholds there.
Yet with the army still strong in the center, analysts say the country is increasingly divided between tight government control in Damascus, de facto rebel control in the north and east and some Damascus suburbs that the government appears unable to regain, and a bloody and increasingly sectarian paramilitary battle in contested cities like Aleppo and Homs. For President Bashar al-Assad’s government, the insurgency has overly taxed a military that was designed not for sustained asymmetrical combat, but to repel an Israeli invasion.
A conventional army like Syria’s “cannot really fight nonstop war,” said Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese general and a professor at the American University at Beirut. “It is weakening for sure.” As the government wages a war that a pro-government newspaper suggested on Tuesday could go on “for years,” it continues to retreat from its initial approach of fighting the rebels wherever they popped up, focusing instead on protecting its strongholds. And in recent days it has placed new emphasis on mobilizing civilians to take up arms for what it paints as a battle for Syria’s existence against foreign-financed terrorists.
Much of Syria’s Army remains well organized and capable, he said, with a far more effective command and control structure than the highly motivated but loosely structured rebel coalition it faces. Some in Syria even report that the government has begun putting special pressure on Christians — who it assumes are supporters — to join the army. At the same time, the government has turned to the nation’s top Muslim cleric to press young people into military service, despite Mr. Assad’s assertion that he is defending a secular order.
In an unusual appeal on national television on Monday, the grand mufti, Sheik Ahmad Badr al-Dine Hassoun, urged Syrians of all religions to join the army. “Syria is the last model of a civilized nation which converts diversity into richness instead of clashes and weakness,” he said.
The strategy, analysts say, aims to relieve the strained forces from the task for which they are most poorly suited — holding neighborhoods in an urban war — and conserve their considerable remaining strength to protect the hub of government power.
The results of that consolidation could be seen last week as rebels swept into the northeastern city of Raqqa and, with an air of confidence, began setting up the foundations for self-government. Although the government continues to pound the city with airstrikes, its capture expanded the rebels’ territory in the north.
Yet with the army still strong in the center, analysts say the country is increasingly divided between tight government control in Damascus, de facto rebel control in the north and some Damascus suburbs, and a bloody and increasingly sectarian paramilitary battle in contested cities like Aleppo and Homs.
A conventional army like Syria’s “cannot really fight nonstop war,” said Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese general and a professor at the American University of Beirut. “It is weakening for sure.”
Much of Syria’s army remains well organized and capable, he said, with a far more effective command and control structure than the highly motivated but loosely structured rebel coalition it faces.
But, he said, its soldiers “rely morally and psychologically on something like a truce, like surrender, like destroying the enemy, and in this kind of war you are not really able to measure your success.”But, he said, its soldiers “rely morally and psychologically on something like a truce, like surrender, like destroying the enemy, and in this kind of war you are not really able to measure your success.”
Since early in the conflict, large numbers of military-age men have paid thousands of dollars to legally avoid military service — so many that analysts say the fees have constituted a significant revenue stream for a government that is determined to keep paying salaries to show that it remains in control.Since early in the conflict, large numbers of military-age men have paid thousands of dollars to legally avoid military service — so many that analysts say the fees have constituted a significant revenue stream for a government that is determined to keep paying salaries to show that it remains in control.
The government has long lacked enough reliably loyal troops to blanket contested areas with patrols or take them with ground operations, so instead has relied on indiscriminate air strikes and artillery attacks that have pushed the death toll well above 70,000, according to United Nations estimates. The government has long lacked enough reliably loyal troops to blanket contested areas with patrols or take them with ground operations, so instead it has relied on indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery attacks that have pushed the death toll well above 70,000, according to United Nations estimates. Rebels say fighters from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have increased their presence to buttress government troops.
Now, to fill the gap, the government is increasingly relying on paramilitary groups, according to analysts and a recent United Nations report. But now, to fill the gap further, the government is increasingly relying on paramilitary groups, according to analysts and a recent United Nations report.
The groups began as the pro-government militias known as shabiha, some of them formalized as Popular Committees. In recent months have been organized under a structure called the National Defense Forces. The United States government has accused Iran, Syria’s ally, of helping build the groups on the model of Iran’s feared Basiji militia. The groups began as the pro-government militias known as shabiha, some of them given formal status as Popular Committees. In recent months they have been organized under a structure called the National Defense Forces. The United States government has accused Iran, Syria’s ally, of helping build the groups on the model of Iran’s feared Basij militia.
In government-controlled areas of the divided city of Aleppo, in parts of Damascus, and elsewhere, many of the ubiquitous checkpoints are now manned by those groups — usually made up of locals — rather than the army, said Peter Harling, the Syria analyst for International Crisis Group, a conflict monitoring organization. In government-controlled areas of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, many of the ubiquitous checkpoints are now manned by those groups — usually made up of locals — rather than the army, said Peter Harling, the Syria analyst for the International Crisis Group, a conflict monitoring organization. As people lose faith in the army, they are loath to risk death on far-flung army deployments, he said, while “holding your ground, protecting your own neighborhood, is far more appealing.”
“There are a lot of people who don’t want to be absorbed into the army,” he said. “There are huge amounts of casualties, and no clear progress, so going to fight for the regime in far-flung areas is not a very appealing proposition. Holding your ground, protecting your own neighborhood, is far more appealing to people.” The pro-government newspaper Al Watan declared Tuesday that the army had “at its disposal enough men and weapons to fight for years to defend Syria.”
The pro-government daily, Al Watan, declared Tuesday that the army remained unbent and had “at its disposal enough men and weapons to fight for years to defend Syria.” But it also urged civilians to go to the army’s aid. “The army is fulfilling its duties, and citizens must now defend their districts, each according to their capacity, as they have done in Aleppo, Hama and Homs, where residents have taken up arms,” the paper said.
But it also urged civilians to come to the army’s aid. Some Christian families have fled Aleppo rather than submit to a recent aggressive army recruiting campaign, fearing their sons will be stopped at checkpoints and forced into service, according to Aksalser, an Aleppo-based Web site that calls itself independent.
“The army is fulfilling its duties, and citizens must now defend their districts, each according to their capacity, as they have done in Aleppo, Hama and Homs, where residents have taken up arms,” the paper said. In his televised remarks, Sheik Hassoun, the grand mufti, also appeared to make a special appeal to Sunnis, saying the rebels were “targeting the Arab and Islamic nation.”
The shift toward paramilitary operations reflects the conflict’s dangerous turn toward sectarian warfare between the Sunni Muslims who make up most of the insurgency and the president’s minority Alawite sect. Analysts said he could not really expect to draw recruits from the Sunni heartland, where government artillery and airstrikes have leveled neighborhoods, and that the speech appeared aimed at reinforcing the government’s narrative that its fall would destroy Syrian society.
A Damascus resident said in an interview in Antakya, Turkey, on Sunday that in his neighborhood — Tadamon, which lies between contested areas south of the city — Sunni residents are far more afraid of Alawite paramilitaries, who abduct and harass people with impunity, than of soldiers. A group calling itself the Coalition of Free Alawite Youth pushed back on Tuesday, offering an alternative for Alawites who do not want to take up arms. It invited them to flee to Turkey, promising that “within a few days, we will secure free accommodation for them with a monthly salary that will shield them from humiliation.”
He said he has many friends in the military who remain there only because they are afraid to leave, need their salaries to support their families, or rely on the extra packages of bread that military members receive.
Some Christian families have fled Aleppo rather than submit to a recent aggressive army recruiting campaign, fearing their sons will be stopped at checkpoints and forced into service, according to Aksalser, an Arabic language Web site that says it is independent and based in Aleppo. “Syrians don’t want to push their children to join a battle which aims to ensure Assad’s survival in the seat of power,” the site said.
The government has consistently painted itself as the guardian of a secular order that protects minorities, fueling an impression among many of its supporters that they are fighting for their lives against the uprising.
Many critics reject that argument, saying the government oppressed the Sunni majority under the cover of secularism for decades and then played on minority fears by painting a broad-based opposition as extremist Muslim terrorists.
The uprising began as a peaceful movement for democratic reforms, but turned to arms after the government fired on peaceful protesters. As cash-strapped rebels found support from foreign Islamist backers, the influence of extremist fighters has grown — further stoking the fears of minorities.
In an unusual appeal on national television on Monday, the top state-appointed Muslim cleric called on all Syrians to urge their children to join the army.
“Syria is the last model of a civilized nation which converts diversity into richness instead of clashes and weakness,” he said.
Yet he also made what appeared to be a special appeal to Sunnis, saying that the rebels were “targeting the Arab and Islamic nation.”
Analysts said that the mufti could not seriously expect to draw recruits from the Sunni heartland, where entire neighborhoods have been leveled by government artillery and air strikes, and that the speech appeared aimed to reinforce the government’s narrative that the fall of the regime would destroy Syrian society.
A group calling itself the Coalition of Free Alawite Youth pushed back on Tuesday, offering an alternative for Alawites who do not want to take up arms.
It invited them to flee to Turkey, promising that “within a few days, we will secure free accommodation for them with a monthly salary that will shield them from humiliation.”
It invoked God’s blessings, and concluded, “Those who wish to leave, please contact the administrators of the page.”It invoked God’s blessings, and concluded, “Those who wish to leave, please contact the administrators of the page.”

Hania Mourtada contributed reporting.

Hania Mourtada contributed reporting.