This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/17/tories-not-in-hell-but-can-put-themselves-there

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
The Conservatives are plotting and talking themselves to death The Conservatives are plotting and talking themselves to death
(7 months later)
There are two ways of thinking about the future for the Conservatives, a grim way and a brighter way. Let's consider both, starting by looking through the Tory glass darkly. Conservative reasons to be depressed number one: the coalition is eating itself. The Tories and the Lib Dems are fighting over press regulation, welfare cuts and a whole lot else while the Tories are at war with themselves over far too many things to list.There are two ways of thinking about the future for the Conservatives, a grim way and a brighter way. Let's consider both, starting by looking through the Tory glass darkly. Conservative reasons to be depressed number one: the coalition is eating itself. The Tories and the Lib Dems are fighting over press regulation, welfare cuts and a whole lot else while the Tories are at war with themselves over far too many things to list.
His grip over his colleagues weakening, David Cameron is gaining such a reputation for being jostled around by stroppy ministers and pushed into U-turns that he is beginning to resemble the love child of John Major and Ted Heath. To add to the many skidmarks on the tarmac of Downing Street, the government has just made a forced retreat on the "bedroom tax" while the prime minister has suffered a rout at the hands of senior colleagues over minimum alcohol pricing. On his febrile backbenches, Tory MPs are reacting to unpopularity with panicked plotting – not so much headless chicken as headless vulture syndrome. Leadership wannabes in the cabinet are exploiting the situation by positioning themselves for the succession, manoeuvres that further corrode the prime minister's authority. There is no respite in sight. George Osborne will this week deliver a budget that he'd cancel were it not an inescapable event in the chancellor's calendar. He will again have to confirm that he's missed his targets for the deficit, for growth, you name it, he's flunked the tests that he set himself.His grip over his colleagues weakening, David Cameron is gaining such a reputation for being jostled around by stroppy ministers and pushed into U-turns that he is beginning to resemble the love child of John Major and Ted Heath. To add to the many skidmarks on the tarmac of Downing Street, the government has just made a forced retreat on the "bedroom tax" while the prime minister has suffered a rout at the hands of senior colleagues over minimum alcohol pricing. On his febrile backbenches, Tory MPs are reacting to unpopularity with panicked plotting – not so much headless chicken as headless vulture syndrome. Leadership wannabes in the cabinet are exploiting the situation by positioning themselves for the succession, manoeuvres that further corrode the prime minister's authority. There is no respite in sight. George Osborne will this week deliver a budget that he'd cancel were it not an inescapable event in the chancellor's calendar. He will again have to confirm that he's missed his targets for the deficit, for growth, you name it, he's flunked the tests that he set himself.
Looming over all this is a Labour lead in the opinion polls that holds pretty steady at around 10 points. Labour has sustained that lead for many months, even though its leader is still poorly rated by the public and the party remains a details-free zone in many key policy areas. Ten points is a bigger margin than Labour needs to win the next election. Ed Miliband can secure a parliamentary majority with a much slighter advantage than that. This is because – another reason for the Tory pessimist to curse David Cameron – they failed to get the boundary changes. In short, the Tories are doomed. They are on course to lose the next election. Some quail privately that they may go down to a defeat so bad that Labour is back for another decade. Ten years of Prime Minister Miliband. Think on that and weep, ye Tories. You might as well slit your wrists now.Looming over all this is a Labour lead in the opinion polls that holds pretty steady at around 10 points. Labour has sustained that lead for many months, even though its leader is still poorly rated by the public and the party remains a details-free zone in many key policy areas. Ten points is a bigger margin than Labour needs to win the next election. Ed Miliband can secure a parliamentary majority with a much slighter advantage than that. This is because – another reason for the Tory pessimist to curse David Cameron – they failed to get the boundary changes. In short, the Tories are doomed. They are on course to lose the next election. Some quail privately that they may go down to a defeat so bad that Labour is back for another decade. Ten years of Prime Minister Miliband. Think on that and weep, ye Tories. You might as well slit your wrists now.
Then there's a way to look through the Tory glass more brightly. Let's take exactly the same facts but give them a more optimistic interpretation. Yes, the coalition will be all over the place in Monday's vote on press regulation. It is sounding fractious and looking frayed. That's no more than to be expected, especially at midterm in dire economic circumstances. Single-party governments can be riddled with infighting even when loads of money is sloshing around. Remember Blair and Brown? They fought like a snake and a mongoose, but still won elections. The most important fact about the coalition is that two parties with different values, philosophies and priorities have managed, in defiance of many early expectations and under terrific pressure, to hang together for nearly three years. Incredible, really.Then there's a way to look through the Tory glass more brightly. Let's take exactly the same facts but give them a more optimistic interpretation. Yes, the coalition will be all over the place in Monday's vote on press regulation. It is sounding fractious and looking frayed. That's no more than to be expected, especially at midterm in dire economic circumstances. Single-party governments can be riddled with infighting even when loads of money is sloshing around. Remember Blair and Brown? They fought like a snake and a mongoose, but still won elections. The most important fact about the coalition is that two parties with different values, philosophies and priorities have managed, in defiance of many early expectations and under terrific pressure, to hang together for nearly three years. Incredible, really.
There was a U-turn over cheap supermarket alcohol –and so what? Booze, snooze. Making drink more expensive wasn't going to toasted by the voters, unless they happened also to be doctors anxious about the nation's livers. As for the "bedroom tax", when there is that much noise about the impact on disabled children and armed forces families, the smart politician acts to turn down the volume. All governments get themselves trapped in bad places and have to scramble out. Unless the retreat is on a central plank of a government's mission, U-turns usually count for very little with voters when they are asked to make the big decision about who should be in power.There was a U-turn over cheap supermarket alcohol –and so what? Booze, snooze. Making drink more expensive wasn't going to toasted by the voters, unless they happened also to be doctors anxious about the nation's livers. As for the "bedroom tax", when there is that much noise about the impact on disabled children and armed forces families, the smart politician acts to turn down the volume. All governments get themselves trapped in bad places and have to scramble out. Unless the retreat is on a central plank of a government's mission, U-turns usually count for very little with voters when they are asked to make the big decision about who should be in power.
George Osborne? Sure, he's less popular than flatulence in a crowded lift during a power cut. How surprising is that? Spending is being slashed, taxes hiked, living standards squeezed and the best he can say about his economic policy is that it really, really will work one day. Yet for all his failures, a majority of voters continue to blame either the banks, the international situation or Labour – in other words, someone other than the government – for austerity. Crucially, the Tories still maintain an edge over Labour when voters are asked to judge the rival teams on economic competence. If that's the state of play now, think how Tory fortunes might be transformed if there is a resumption of normal growth or something resembling it in time for the next election.George Osborne? Sure, he's less popular than flatulence in a crowded lift during a power cut. How surprising is that? Spending is being slashed, taxes hiked, living standards squeezed and the best he can say about his economic policy is that it really, really will work one day. Yet for all his failures, a majority of voters continue to blame either the banks, the international situation or Labour – in other words, someone other than the government – for austerity. Crucially, the Tories still maintain an edge over Labour when voters are asked to judge the rival teams on economic competence. If that's the state of play now, think how Tory fortunes might be transformed if there is a resumption of normal growth or something resembling it in time for the next election.
What's more, that election is still some way off. David Cameron may have got a lot wrong, but he got one thing very right when he locked in a five-year parliament. There are two years and two months to go before the voters deliver their final verdict. That's a lot of time for things to turn up for the Tories and go sour for Labour.What's more, that election is still some way off. David Cameron may have got a lot wrong, but he got one thing very right when he locked in a five-year parliament. There are two years and two months to go before the voters deliver their final verdict. That's a lot of time for things to turn up for the Tories and go sour for Labour.
As for that 10-point lead, Labour should be ashamed of itself. Michael Foot had bigger leads over Margaret Thatcher in her first term and she went on to win her next election by a landslide. Neil Kinnock built up much bigger leads than 10 points in her second term and she went on to win her third election by another landslide. Labour ought to be twice as far ahead to be confident that the country has a settled desire to put Messrs Miliband and Balls into power.As for that 10-point lead, Labour should be ashamed of itself. Michael Foot had bigger leads over Margaret Thatcher in her first term and she went on to win her next election by a landslide. Neil Kinnock built up much bigger leads than 10 points in her second term and she went on to win her third election by another landslide. Labour ought to be twice as far ahead to be confident that the country has a settled desire to put Messrs Miliband and Balls into power.
There will be a day when they will have to do more than heckle every mistake made by the coalition. There will be a day when they have to start making some very tough choices of their own. Then the polls will stop being a referendum on the government and start to reflect a choice between governments. Only then will we truly know what the country thinks. So cheer up, Conservatives, there is still everything to play for.There will be a day when they will have to do more than heckle every mistake made by the coalition. There will be a day when they have to start making some very tough choices of their own. Then the polls will stop being a referendum on the government and start to reflect a choice between governments. Only then will we truly know what the country thinks. So cheer up, Conservatives, there is still everything to play for.
You and I may have views about which way of thinking about things is closer to the truth, but no one can be entirely certain what tomorrow holds. What matters most in terms of what is happening to David Cameron's party today is which version of the future strikes Tories as most plausible. An essentially optimistic Conservative party will rally to its leadership and battle by its side in the hope of better times. A Conservative party seized by despair will turn its guns on itself. The latter is happening now because fewer and fewer Tories can be found in the optimistic camp and more and more of them have slumped into pessimism.You and I may have views about which way of thinking about things is closer to the truth, but no one can be entirely certain what tomorrow holds. What matters most in terms of what is happening to David Cameron's party today is which version of the future strikes Tories as most plausible. An essentially optimistic Conservative party will rally to its leadership and battle by its side in the hope of better times. A Conservative party seized by despair will turn its guns on itself. The latter is happening now because fewer and fewer Tories can be found in the optimistic camp and more and more of them have slumped into pessimism.
There are many reasons for that, but three are especially important. One is recent history. The Conservatives have not won a parliamentary majority since 1992. If David Cameron could not do it in 2010 against a prime minister as unpopular as Gordon Brown, Tories find it hard to see why he should succeed in 2015. That fatalism is accompanied by a lack of resilience. Once upon a time, the Conservatives liked to think of themselves as a party that was steady under fire. Now they have become a party that jumps at the sound of a peashooter and reacts to any reverse by noisily questioning the calibre of its commanders. One Tory minister thinks the culprit is the unusually high proportion of first-time MPs in the Conservative ranks. The 2010 intake had no preparation for tough times. They weren't in Parliament during the wilderness years of opposition when the party lay crushed at the feet of Tony Blair. They became candidates in the fag-end years of Labour when Gordon Brown was staggering to defeat and the Tories were on a roll. As a result, remarks this minister, "they never developed any backbone".There are many reasons for that, but three are especially important. One is recent history. The Conservatives have not won a parliamentary majority since 1992. If David Cameron could not do it in 2010 against a prime minister as unpopular as Gordon Brown, Tories find it hard to see why he should succeed in 2015. That fatalism is accompanied by a lack of resilience. Once upon a time, the Conservatives liked to think of themselves as a party that was steady under fire. Now they have become a party that jumps at the sound of a peashooter and reacts to any reverse by noisily questioning the calibre of its commanders. One Tory minister thinks the culprit is the unusually high proportion of first-time MPs in the Conservative ranks. The 2010 intake had no preparation for tough times. They weren't in Parliament during the wilderness years of opposition when the party lay crushed at the feet of Tony Blair. They became candidates in the fag-end years of Labour when Gordon Brown was staggering to defeat and the Tories were on a roll. As a result, remarks this minister, "they never developed any backbone".
That may be a bit unfair on the younger generation. Many of their older colleagues are no steadier. The greyer heads on the Tory benches did endure the years of opposition, only for many of them to find they didn't get a job in government because they had become too old or the berth they had expected was filled instead by a Lib Dem or their sparkling talents, as they saw them, were rudely overlooked by the prime minister. The sacked and the passed-over always present a personnel problem to any party leader. To them as sources of trouble we can add the ideological zealots and hobby-horse fanatics convinced that their personal causes are more important than responsibility to party unity.That may be a bit unfair on the younger generation. Many of their older colleagues are no steadier. The greyer heads on the Tory benches did endure the years of opposition, only for many of them to find they didn't get a job in government because they had become too old or the berth they had expected was filled instead by a Lib Dem or their sparkling talents, as they saw them, were rudely overlooked by the prime minister. The sacked and the passed-over always present a personnel problem to any party leader. To them as sources of trouble we can add the ideological zealots and hobby-horse fanatics convinced that their personal causes are more important than responsibility to party unity.
This party management challenge has become more acute because the traditional sticks of discipline and carrots of patronage no longer work as they once did. Places on select committees are no longer fixed by the whips, but decided by election. The decline of deference has come to Parliament. MPs are no longer awed by their leaders, nor are they easily scared by whips. Rather than react to a bollocking by cowering in a corner, the typical contemporary Tory MP responds to an attempt to discipline them by issuing a mocking tweet.This party management challenge has become more acute because the traditional sticks of discipline and carrots of patronage no longer work as they once did. Places on select committees are no longer fixed by the whips, but decided by election. The decline of deference has come to Parliament. MPs are no longer awed by their leaders, nor are they easily scared by whips. Rather than react to a bollocking by cowering in a corner, the typical contemporary Tory MP responds to an attempt to discipline them by issuing a mocking tweet.
The upshot is that the Conservative party is not responding to adversity by closing ranks and pulling together but by falling apart and turning on itself. The more of its members that behave as if they have already lost, the likelier it is that they will be defeated.The upshot is that the Conservative party is not responding to adversity by closing ranks and pulling together but by falling apart and turning on itself. The more of its members that behave as if they have already lost, the likelier it is that they will be defeated.
Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning.