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Ukip support surges as Tories continue to struggle in polls Ukip support surges as Tories continue to struggle in polls
(7 months later)
A series of polls this weekend will place further strain on David Cameron's leadership as they show support around the country for the Tory party remains below 30%, while Ukip is surging.A series of polls this weekend will place further strain on David Cameron's leadership as they show support around the country for the Tory party remains below 30%, while Ukip is surging.
In a ComRes poll conducted for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, Ukip cemented its third place position ahead of the Liberal Democrats and hit a record high of 17%.In a ComRes poll conducted for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, Ukip cemented its third place position ahead of the Liberal Democrats and hit a record high of 17%.
Support for Conservatives, who were pushed into third place by Ukip at last month's Eastleigh byelection, fell three points to 28%, while Labour continued its lead on 37%.Support for Conservatives, who were pushed into third place by Ukip at last month's Eastleigh byelection, fell three points to 28%, while Labour continued its lead on 37%.
A poll last Sunday for the Observer carried out by Opinium delivered similar results, placing the UK's largest parliamentary party at 27%.A poll last Sunday for the Observer carried out by Opinium delivered similar results, placing the UK's largest parliamentary party at 27%.
A second survey conducted by ICM for the Sunday Telegraph found that a key group of right-of-centre voters were likely to prefer Ukip polices to Tory ones on same-sex marriage, immigration and government spending.A second survey conducted by ICM for the Sunday Telegraph found that a key group of right-of-centre voters were likely to prefer Ukip polices to Tory ones on same-sex marriage, immigration and government spending.
Poor poll showings have fuelled calls from activists and MPs in the Tory party for a rightwards shift.Poor poll showings have fuelled calls from activists and MPs in the Tory party for a rightwards shift.
Numbering 10% of all voters, the group, known as Conservative-Ukip "switchers" – currently undecided about which of the two right-of-centre parties to vote for – preferred Ukip's Nigel Farage to Cameron as a leader by 37% to 32%, the poll found.Numbering 10% of all voters, the group, known as Conservative-Ukip "switchers" – currently undecided about which of the two right-of-centre parties to vote for – preferred Ukip's Nigel Farage to Cameron as a leader by 37% to 32%, the poll found.
On policy they also backed Ukip by a significant margin. Ukip's policy of freezing all permanent settlement in the UK was more popular than a Tory "cap" on migrants among the group by 62% to 34%. The Ukip policy was more warmly received by all voters by a margin of 53% to 36%.On policy they also backed Ukip by a significant margin. Ukip's policy of freezing all permanent settlement in the UK was more popular than a Tory "cap" on migrants among the group by 62% to 34%. The Ukip policy was more warmly received by all voters by a margin of 53% to 36%.
"Switchers" also preferred Ukip's opposition to same-sex marriage, with 51% supporting the party's line. Only 39% preferred the Conservative stance of permitting gay marriage – a result at variance with the general voting population who back same-sex marriages by 54% to 34%."Switchers" also preferred Ukip's opposition to same-sex marriage, with 51% supporting the party's line. Only 39% preferred the Conservative stance of permitting gay marriage – a result at variance with the general voting population who back same-sex marriages by 54% to 34%.
On austerity measures, Ukip-Tory floating voters also preferred by 64% to 28% Ukip's policy of across-the-board cuts instead of Cameron's policy of ringfencing certain areas of spending such as pensions, international aid and the NHS budget.On austerity measures, Ukip-Tory floating voters also preferred by 64% to 28% Ukip's policy of across-the-board cuts instead of Cameron's policy of ringfencing certain areas of spending such as pensions, international aid and the NHS budget.
However, on one other key issue – Europe – the ICM poll found that Tories had a lead among right-of-centre floating voters: 50% preferred the idea of repatriating powers from Brussels and holding a referendum on EU membership. Only 43% backed Ukip's policy of an immediate pullout.However, on one other key issue – Europe – the ICM poll found that Tories had a lead among right-of-centre floating voters: 50% preferred the idea of repatriating powers from Brussels and holding a referendum on EU membership. Only 43% backed Ukip's policy of an immediate pullout.
On issues of leadership the bloc of right-of-centre voters said they preferred the London mayor, Boris Johnson, to Cameron – a result at odds with the wider group of Tory voters who much prefer Cameron.On issues of leadership the bloc of right-of-centre voters said they preferred the London mayor, Boris Johnson, to Cameron – a result at odds with the wider group of Tory voters who much prefer Cameron.
Theresa May, who recently delivered a speech thought to have signalled an ambition to lead the party, came third in the poll among both groups.Theresa May, who recently delivered a speech thought to have signalled an ambition to lead the party, came third in the poll among both groups.
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