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Labour and the budget: waiting for an alternative Labour and the budget: waiting for an alternative
(6 months later)
The hardest job on budget day is commonly held to be that of leader of the opposition. With scant time, he has to make sense of a raft of projections and measures and numbers that rattle past faster than a Pendolino. What's more, Ed Miliband will have to master the Red Book just a couple of days after staying up into the early hours to negotiate the Leveson vote. Whatever your politics, a measure of sympathy is surely due.The hardest job on budget day is commonly held to be that of leader of the opposition. With scant time, he has to make sense of a raft of projections and measures and numbers that rattle past faster than a Pendolino. What's more, Ed Miliband will have to master the Red Book just a couple of days after staying up into the early hours to negotiate the Leveson vote. Whatever your politics, a measure of sympathy is surely due.
When he makes his response this afternoon, Mr Miliband will surely be aware of two contradictions that face his party on economic policy. The first is that Labour have won the argument on the folly of the government's deficit reduction strategy. Shadow chancellor Ed Balls has consistently and cogently opposed George Osborne's plans to make the sharpest spending cuts in postwar history. He has not always had the full support of everyone on the Labour frontbench, but that warcry of "too far, too fast" has been borne out by the facts. Despite extraordinary monetary stimulus, the economy remains flat on its back. As a result, the chancellor's borrowing projections have been blown far off course – and the latest outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility is likely to be even bleaker. It is no longer the usual suspects calling for a fiscal stimulus; it's business groups, the Tory right and a growing thicket of newspapers.When he makes his response this afternoon, Mr Miliband will surely be aware of two contradictions that face his party on economic policy. The first is that Labour have won the argument on the folly of the government's deficit reduction strategy. Shadow chancellor Ed Balls has consistently and cogently opposed George Osborne's plans to make the sharpest spending cuts in postwar history. He has not always had the full support of everyone on the Labour frontbench, but that warcry of "too far, too fast" has been borne out by the facts. Despite extraordinary monetary stimulus, the economy remains flat on its back. As a result, the chancellor's borrowing projections have been blown far off course – and the latest outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility is likely to be even bleaker. It is no longer the usual suspects calling for a fiscal stimulus; it's business groups, the Tory right and a growing thicket of newspapers.
So that debate around the wisdom of government austerity has come round to the Labour criticism. But the second thing Mr Miliband will be painfully aware of is that Labour has failed to win the argument that it has a better alternative. While opinion polls show growing disdain for the coalition parties, the support for Labour is surprisingly modest – behind where Michael Foot used to rate in Margaret Thatcher's first term, and trailing most of Neil Kinnock's years as leader of the opposition. There is a simple reason for this: the opposition has failed to lay out much of an alternative. It does have Mr Balls' five-point plan: not especially memorable (even to Labour MPs), but not especially offensive, either. Apprenticeships and housebuilding: who could disagree with that? As a programme for a temporary and modest stimulus those points, plus a time-limited cut in VAT, sound perfectly sensible. But they are an outline for the sort of things a government could do now; not a guide to what Labour would do if it formed part or all of an administration come 2015. Would Mr Balls make the cuts that the coalition plans for the first half of the next parliament? If not, what would he do instead?So that debate around the wisdom of government austerity has come round to the Labour criticism. But the second thing Mr Miliband will be painfully aware of is that Labour has failed to win the argument that it has a better alternative. While opinion polls show growing disdain for the coalition parties, the support for Labour is surprisingly modest – behind where Michael Foot used to rate in Margaret Thatcher's first term, and trailing most of Neil Kinnock's years as leader of the opposition. There is a simple reason for this: the opposition has failed to lay out much of an alternative. It does have Mr Balls' five-point plan: not especially memorable (even to Labour MPs), but not especially offensive, either. Apprenticeships and housebuilding: who could disagree with that? As a programme for a temporary and modest stimulus those points, plus a time-limited cut in VAT, sound perfectly sensible. But they are an outline for the sort of things a government could do now; not a guide to what Labour would do if it formed part or all of an administration come 2015. Would Mr Balls make the cuts that the coalition plans for the first half of the next parliament? If not, what would he do instead?
After having spent nearly three years to win any kind of hearing for its criticism of Osbornomics, some senior figures within Labour can be a bit exasperated when pressed to elaborate on longer-run strategy. And two years before the next election, Mr Miliband cannot be expected to give every cough and spit of what he would do in Number 10. But nor should he carry on with his previous approach of making speeches that set out big ideas but show little sign of being translatable to policy. Themes such as predatory capitalism and predistribution sound fine in thinktank seminars, but it is past time that Labour showed how they might cash out in government.After having spent nearly three years to win any kind of hearing for its criticism of Osbornomics, some senior figures within Labour can be a bit exasperated when pressed to elaborate on longer-run strategy. And two years before the next election, Mr Miliband cannot be expected to give every cough and spit of what he would do in Number 10. But nor should he carry on with his previous approach of making speeches that set out big ideas but show little sign of being translatable to policy. Themes such as predatory capitalism and predistribution sound fine in thinktank seminars, but it is past time that Labour showed how they might cash out in government.
There is more to this than polling. Unless Mr Miliband starts setting out a serious and cogent plan for where he would like to take this economy, he will end up having to follow the coalition agenda of offering spending cuts. A serious analysis of the British economy would begin with the acknowledgement that it will take more than a fiscal boost to put things right. An entire model is now broken and the task of a progressive party is to outline a fairer replacement. Start with breaking up the banks and directing them to lend to strategic regions and sectors. Protect what industrial base Britain does have left and strategise for how to create more. Tackle runaway pay in the boardroom. These are the issues that Mr Miliband says he is concerned about; once the budget is out of the way it will be high time to suggest what he will do about them.There is more to this than polling. Unless Mr Miliband starts setting out a serious and cogent plan for where he would like to take this economy, he will end up having to follow the coalition agenda of offering spending cuts. A serious analysis of the British economy would begin with the acknowledgement that it will take more than a fiscal boost to put things right. An entire model is now broken and the task of a progressive party is to outline a fairer replacement. Start with breaking up the banks and directing them to lend to strategic regions and sectors. Protect what industrial base Britain does have left and strategise for how to create more. Tackle runaway pay in the boardroom. These are the issues that Mr Miliband says he is concerned about; once the budget is out of the way it will be high time to suggest what he will do about them.
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