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| Budget reality check: some grand-sounding claims – but do they stack up? | Budget reality check: some grand-sounding claims – but do they stack up? |
| (17 days later) | |
| "We've seen more people in work than ever before – including a record number of women. A quarter of a million fewer workless households than two years ago. And the unemployment rate is lower than when we came to office" | "We've seen more people in work than ever before – including a record number of women. A quarter of a million fewer workless households than two years ago. And the unemployment rate is lower than when we came to office" |
| Unemployment was at 7.8% of the workforce when the coalition was elected in May 2010 – and is back at that figure now. But in the intervening months it shot up to 8.4%. In fact, there are slightly more people unemployed now – 2.516 million, compared with 2.475 million in May 2010. | Unemployment was at 7.8% of the workforce when the coalition was elected in May 2010 – and is back at that figure now. But in the intervening months it shot up to 8.4%. In fact, there are slightly more people unemployed now – 2.516 million, compared with 2.475 million in May 2010. |
| It is true that more women are working than ever before – 13.8 million in the labour force survey figures released on Wednesday. But – and it's a big but – at 66.6% of the workforce that is actually lower in real terms than the high point of 67.1% in May 2008, just before recession hit. Women are also more likely than men to work part-time – and the latest figures show that 755,000 women work part-time because they cannot find a full-time job – and that another 855,000 work in temporary jobs, up by 38,000 on last year. Simon Rogers | It is true that more women are working than ever before – 13.8 million in the labour force survey figures released on Wednesday. But – and it's a big but – at 66.6% of the workforce that is actually lower in real terms than the high point of 67.1% in May 2008, just before recession hit. Women are also more likely than men to work part-time – and the latest figures show that 755,000 women work part-time because they cannot find a full-time job – and that another 855,000 work in temporary jobs, up by 38,000 on last year. Simon Rogers |
| "If you want to bring borrowing down, then you have to control spending – and that is what we have done" | "If you want to bring borrowing down, then you have to control spending – and that is what we have done" |
| While public spending has been cut, borrowing is up under the coalition. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has changed its forecast for borrowing so that the UK will borrow some £56.3bn more between now and 2017-18 than it had predicted in last year's autumn statement. So, although the actual amount is falling – from £121bn in 2011-12 to £43bn in 2017-18, it is higher than the OBR thought it would be by then. SR | While public spending has been cut, borrowing is up under the coalition. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has changed its forecast for borrowing so that the UK will borrow some £56.3bn more between now and 2017-18 than it had predicted in last year's autumn statement. So, although the actual amount is falling – from £121bn in 2011-12 to £43bn in 2017-18, it is higher than the OBR thought it would be by then. SR |
| "Schools and health budgets will remain protected: because our promise to our NHS is a promise we will keep" | "Schools and health budgets will remain protected: because our promise to our NHS is a promise we will keep" |
| NHS spending is actually falling. Ministerial claims that spending on the health service has been rising in real terms were comprehensively squashed by Andrew Dilnot, chairman of the UK Statistics Authority last December. He concluded that health spending was actually lower, after inflation had been taken into account, in 2011-12 than it had been in 2009-10. This is backed by Guardian Datablog research using official DoH figures which found a 0.9% drop from 2010-11 to 2011-12. SR | NHS spending is actually falling. Ministerial claims that spending on the health service has been rising in real terms were comprehensively squashed by Andrew Dilnot, chairman of the UK Statistics Authority last December. He concluded that health spending was actually lower, after inflation had been taken into account, in 2011-12 than it had been in 2009-10. This is backed by Guardian Datablog research using official DoH figures which found a 0.9% drop from 2010-11 to 2011-12. SR |
| "The accountants KPMG do a survey of investors that ranks the world's most competitive tax regimes. Three years ago, we were near the bottom of that table. Now we're at the top" | "The accountants KPMG do a survey of investors that ranks the world's most competitive tax regimes. Three years ago, we were near the bottom of that table. Now we're at the top" |
| The KPMG annual survey of tax competitiveness 2012 surveys senior "tax decision-makers" in the largest UK-listed companies. The latest, from the end of 2012, put the UK at the top of its league table of six countries: the UK, US, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland and Ireland. The latest figures show that 72% think the UK has the most competitive tax regime out of that list – placing it first, compared with fifth in 2011. The sample size is small, however – only 57 people – and the list of countries does not include many other of the UK's international competitors. Still, KPMG say, the type of people surveyed make it statistically valid and the new figures are due to new attitudes at HMRC and the Treasury. SR | The KPMG annual survey of tax competitiveness 2012 surveys senior "tax decision-makers" in the largest UK-listed companies. The latest, from the end of 2012, put the UK at the top of its league table of six countries: the UK, US, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland and Ireland. The latest figures show that 72% think the UK has the most competitive tax regime out of that list – placing it first, compared with fifth in 2011. The sample size is small, however – only 57 people – and the list of countries does not include many other of the UK's international competitors. Still, KPMG say, the type of people surveyed make it statistically valid and the new figures are due to new attitudes at HMRC and the Treasury. SR |
| "Those who have paid fines in our financial sector because they demonstrated the very worst values are paying to support those in our armed forces who demonstrate the very best of British values" | "Those who have paid fines in our financial sector because they demonstrated the very worst values are paying to support those in our armed forces who demonstrate the very best of British values" |
| The chancellor can point to small rises in pay for the armed forces and extra money for veterans but the sums are extremely small compared with the very large cuts of billions of pounds in the overall defence budget and tens of thousands of military job losses, notably in the army, whose soldiers Osborne singled out for praise. | The chancellor can point to small rises in pay for the armed forces and extra money for veterans but the sums are extremely small compared with the very large cuts of billions of pounds in the overall defence budget and tens of thousands of military job losses, notably in the army, whose soldiers Osborne singled out for praise. |
| Osborne may claim "that further awards from the Libor banking fines have gone to good military causes", but in reality it is an extremely disingenuous, meaningless, juxtaposition. He might as easily have said , though it would perhaps not have sounded so good, that the Libor fines will allow Britain to spend more on nuclear weapons, or indeed anything else. Richard Norton-Taylor | Osborne may claim "that further awards from the Libor banking fines have gone to good military causes", but in reality it is an extremely disingenuous, meaningless, juxtaposition. He might as easily have said , though it would perhaps not have sounded so good, that the Libor fines will allow Britain to spend more on nuclear weapons, or indeed anything else. Richard Norton-Taylor |
| "We're already supporting the largest programme of investment in our railways since Victorian times – and spending more on new roads than in a generation" | "We're already supporting the largest programme of investment in our railways since Victorian times – and spending more on new roads than in a generation" |
| Is this likely to be true? Despite the murk around rail financing, almost certainly: 20th-century railway history in the UK is not a happy one, with British Rail's latter decades all about managing decline. Rail investment had jumped again since privatisation. We've seen major schemes such as the £9bn west coast main line upgrade completed under the last government. Now Crossrail is happening, and the high-speed HS2 line – the first major artery north of London since those Victorians. | Is this likely to be true? Despite the murk around rail financing, almost certainly: 20th-century railway history in the UK is not a happy one, with British Rail's latter decades all about managing decline. Rail investment had jumped again since privatisation. We've seen major schemes such as the £9bn west coast main line upgrade completed under the last government. Now Crossrail is happening, and the high-speed HS2 line – the first major artery north of London since those Victorians. |
| Road spending is also coming from a low base: Labour cut spending on roads significantly under Prescott, though the coalition's 2010 spending review cut further. The Highways Agency budget has taken hits, but Osborne is specifically talking about new roads here. And road-building has not been much in vogue since Swampy and friends opposed bypasses in the 1990s. Last year though the chancellor green-lighted funding for many new schemes. So Osborne's boast is very likely true. Expect son of Swampy soon ... Gwyn Topham | Road spending is also coming from a low base: Labour cut spending on roads significantly under Prescott, though the coalition's 2010 spending review cut further. The Highways Agency budget has taken hits, but Osborne is specifically talking about new roads here. And road-building has not been much in vogue since Swampy and friends opposed bypasses in the 1990s. Last year though the chancellor green-lighted funding for many new schemes. So Osborne's boast is very likely true. Expect son of Swampy soon ... Gwyn Topham |
| "I am unveiling one of the largest ever packages of tax avoidance and evasion measures presented at a budget" | "I am unveiling one of the largest ever packages of tax avoidance and evasion measures presented at a budget" |
| Promising significantly boosted revenues thanks to clampdowns on tax avoidance is clearly a tempting path for the chancellor: it's popular, and it helps him fund some of the giveaways contained in this year's budget. And it's a move he needs to work, given the Treasury is forecasting an extra £4.8bn or so of revenue thanks to the changes. The trouble is, he's not the first chancellor to promise to raise more revenue this way. In the first years of the Labour government, Gordon Brown promised a large-scale crackdown on corporate tax avoidance – which was reversed in 1999. Again, in 2003, he promised substantial sums would be raised through crackdowns on avoidance. Six years later, when Brown was PM, his chancellor Alistair Darling pledged to raise £1bn through a tax avoidance clampdown, and said general measures in this vein would raise £3bn a year. | Promising significantly boosted revenues thanks to clampdowns on tax avoidance is clearly a tempting path for the chancellor: it's popular, and it helps him fund some of the giveaways contained in this year's budget. And it's a move he needs to work, given the Treasury is forecasting an extra £4.8bn or so of revenue thanks to the changes. The trouble is, he's not the first chancellor to promise to raise more revenue this way. In the first years of the Labour government, Gordon Brown promised a large-scale crackdown on corporate tax avoidance – which was reversed in 1999. Again, in 2003, he promised substantial sums would be raised through crackdowns on avoidance. Six years later, when Brown was PM, his chancellor Alistair Darling pledged to raise £1bn through a tax avoidance clampdown, and said general measures in this vein would raise £3bn a year. |
| The UK receives about £40bn a year in corporation tax. In fact, it's actually projected to fall (as a result of tax cuts), and has not risen dramatically over the last decade, certainly not to the extent all of the promised crackdowns might suggest. The question is whether it's easier to announce new money through crackdowns than it is to actually get hold of the cash. If that's the case, the chancellor might face a nasty budget black hole down the line. James Ball | The UK receives about £40bn a year in corporation tax. In fact, it's actually projected to fall (as a result of tax cuts), and has not risen dramatically over the last decade, certainly not to the extent all of the promised crackdowns might suggest. The question is whether it's easier to announce new money through crackdowns than it is to actually get hold of the cash. If that's the case, the chancellor might face a nasty budget black hole down the line. James Ball |
| "I want Britain to tap into new sources of low-cost energy like shale gas" | "I want Britain to tap into new sources of low-cost energy like shale gas" |
| George Osborne claimed that fracked gas was "low cost" and has previously described it as "cheap". This is certainly a true description of the shale gas produced in the US, which has seen gas prices plummet in recent years. | George Osborne claimed that fracked gas was "low cost" and has previously described it as "cheap". This is certainly a true description of the shale gas produced in the US, which has seen gas prices plummet in recent years. |
| However, no serious, independent voice has stated that this shale gas boom can be replicated in the UK. Osborne's cabinet colleague, the energy secretary Ed Davey, along with the International Energy Agency, British Gas, Deutsche Bank and many others all agree that the UK is simply a very different case. | However, no serious, independent voice has stated that this shale gas boom can be replicated in the UK. Osborne's cabinet colleague, the energy secretary Ed Davey, along with the International Energy Agency, British Gas, Deutsche Bank and many others all agree that the UK is simply a very different case. |
| Primary among the differences is the UK's population density: fracking in North Dakota is not the same as fracking in East Sussex when it comes to local opposition. Mineral rights are different here too, cutting exploration incentives. | Primary among the differences is the UK's population density: fracking in North Dakota is not the same as fracking in East Sussex when it comes to local opposition. Mineral rights are different here too, cutting exploration incentives. |
| It is all going to take a long time too. There will be little or no fracked gas in the UK within a decade. The decline in North Sea production and fast-rising global gas demand has led almost all observers to predict either stable or rising gas prices in the UK. Damian Carrington | It is all going to take a long time too. There will be little or no fracked gas in the UK within a decade. The decline in North Sea production and fast-rising global gas demand has led almost all observers to predict either stable or rising gas prices in the UK. Damian Carrington |
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