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Turkey should seize offer of peace from Kurdish guerilla leader | Turkey should seize offer of peace from Kurdish guerilla leader |
(12 days later) | |
Turkey's public enemy number one did the Turkish government a big favour on Thursday. Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed Kurdish guerrilla leader and a man the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, once said he would have liked to have seen hanged, called a ceasefire in one of the world's worst and longest-running conflicts: 30 years of bloodletting between the Turkish army and Kurdish militants. | Turkey's public enemy number one did the Turkish government a big favour on Thursday. Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed Kurdish guerrilla leader and a man the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, once said he would have liked to have seen hanged, called a ceasefire in one of the world's worst and longest-running conflicts: 30 years of bloodletting between the Turkish army and Kurdish militants. |
Speaking via political subordinates in the south-eastern city of Diyarbakir from his prison cell on an island in the Sea of Marmara, Öcalan spoke of the dawn of a new era where ideas and politics would prevail over guns and bombs. | Speaking via political subordinates in the south-eastern city of Diyarbakir from his prison cell on an island in the Sea of Marmara, Öcalan spoke of the dawn of a new era where ideas and politics would prevail over guns and bombs. |
It is an opportunity Erdogan would do well to seize, despite the daunting opposition from often ferocious Turkish nationalists that the new peace process is certain to unleash. | It is an opportunity Erdogan would do well to seize, despite the daunting opposition from often ferocious Turkish nationalists that the new peace process is certain to unleash. |
The air was thick with Kurdish hope and optimism on Thursday amid the celebrations for the Newroz new year's holiday. If the Turkish government fails to match the sense of expectation raised by Öcalan's offer, it might find itself on the wrong end of a historic opportunity. | The air was thick with Kurdish hope and optimism on Thursday amid the celebrations for the Newroz new year's holiday. If the Turkish government fails to match the sense of expectation raised by Öcalan's offer, it might find itself on the wrong end of a historic opportunity. |
As a result of the war next door in Syria, the earlier war in Iraq, the Iranian Shia ascendancy in postwar Iraq and Tehran's alliance with the Assad regime in Damascus, Erdogan is seeing his bid for regional influence at the head of a vibrant Muslim democracy slip away. | As a result of the war next door in Syria, the earlier war in Iraq, the Iranian Shia ascendancy in postwar Iraq and Tehran's alliance with the Assad regime in Damascus, Erdogan is seeing his bid for regional influence at the head of a vibrant Muslim democracy slip away. |
He needs Öcalan to strike a historic bargain with the Kurds, not least because of the knock-on effects in northern Iraq and north-east Syria, where the PKK's Kurdish cousins in effect control a large region on the other side of Turkey's border. | He needs Öcalan to strike a historic bargain with the Kurds, not least because of the knock-on effects in northern Iraq and north-east Syria, where the PKK's Kurdish cousins in effect control a large region on the other side of Turkey's border. |
A failure to rise to the occasion by Erdogan could leave him on the losing side of the regional contest with Baghdad, Tehran and Damascus, as well as worsening the disputes with the Kurds not only in Turkey – where half of them live – but in Syria, northern Iraq and Iran too. | A failure to rise to the occasion by Erdogan could leave him on the losing side of the regional contest with Baghdad, Tehran and Damascus, as well as worsening the disputes with the Kurds not only in Turkey – where half of them live – but in Syria, northern Iraq and Iran too. |
This sense of what is at stake regionally may be what has spurred Erdogan to gamble on the proxy negotiation with Öcalan – conducted quietly through his doveish intelligence chief, Hakan Fidan, since last October and involving the use of Kurdish go-between politicians who have been allowed to visit the island prisoner three times. | This sense of what is at stake regionally may be what has spurred Erdogan to gamble on the proxy negotiation with Öcalan – conducted quietly through his doveish intelligence chief, Hakan Fidan, since last October and involving the use of Kurdish go-between politicians who have been allowed to visit the island prisoner three times. |
But there is ample bitterness among the leadership of the Kurds, whose journalists, lawyers and mayors have been jailed by the thousand, whose villages have been torched and razed and whose rights have been trampled systematically for decades as the state insisted that every citizen of the republic be a Turk. | But there is ample bitterness among the leadership of the Kurds, whose journalists, lawyers and mayors have been jailed by the thousand, whose villages have been torched and razed and whose rights have been trampled systematically for decades as the state insisted that every citizen of the republic be a Turk. |
There is wariness too among western diplomats in Ankara closely following the "peace process", as well as suspicion among the more liberal Turkish chattering class in Istanbul and Ankara as to Erdogan's motives. | There is wariness too among western diplomats in Ankara closely following the "peace process", as well as suspicion among the more liberal Turkish chattering class in Istanbul and Ankara as to Erdogan's motives. |
Is the formidable Turkish prime minister really aiming for the history books and a Nobel peace prize? Or is he simply engaged in a short-term tactical ploy to help him secure greater power as an executive president under a new constitution next year? He would hope to co-opt the votes of Kurdish deputies in parliament to muster the support needed for the new constitution. | Is the formidable Turkish prime minister really aiming for the history books and a Nobel peace prize? Or is he simply engaged in a short-term tactical ploy to help him secure greater power as an executive president under a new constitution next year? He would hope to co-opt the votes of Kurdish deputies in parliament to muster the support needed for the new constitution. |
The jury is out on Erdogan, although it appears that the more doveish figures in his entourage – the intelligence chief and the justice minister, who favour an accommodation with the Kurds – are currently winning out in the behind-the-scenes power struggles. | The jury is out on Erdogan, although it appears that the more doveish figures in his entourage – the intelligence chief and the justice minister, who favour an accommodation with the Kurds – are currently winning out in the behind-the-scenes power struggles. |
It is very early days in what will be a long, tricky and difficult negotiation. So far the Kurdish insurgency's leadership has, last week, released hostages it was holding, and has now declared a ceasefire, a withdrawal of fighters into Iraq, and hinted at a decommissioning of arms that eventually should allow the commanders to come down from the mountain, swap their fatigues for suits, and go into politics. IRA to Sinn Féin, albeit on a much bigger scale. | It is very early days in what will be a long, tricky and difficult negotiation. So far the Kurdish insurgency's leadership has, last week, released hostages it was holding, and has now declared a ceasefire, a withdrawal of fighters into Iraq, and hinted at a decommissioning of arms that eventually should allow the commanders to come down from the mountain, swap their fatigues for suits, and go into politics. IRA to Sinn Féin, albeit on a much bigger scale. |
Long before that stage might be reached, Erdogan will need to start reforming the draconian anti-terror laws to release thousands of Kurds detained for voicing their opinions, and start conceding fundamental civil rights to the Kurds – education in their own language, local and regional self-government and cultural rights. | Long before that stage might be reached, Erdogan will need to start reforming the draconian anti-terror laws to release thousands of Kurds detained for voicing their opinions, and start conceding fundamental civil rights to the Kurds – education in their own language, local and regional self-government and cultural rights. |
If the momentum can be maintained and the breakthroughs achieved, Thursday's initiative by the man the west officially views as a terrorist leader could leave everyone a winner in Turkey and the prime minister in a stronger position regionally. If failure is foretold, however, Erdogan may be the biggest loser. The regional zeitgeist favours the Kurds: Erdogan has been given a chance to make them his friends, not his enemies. | If the momentum can be maintained and the breakthroughs achieved, Thursday's initiative by the man the west officially views as a terrorist leader could leave everyone a winner in Turkey and the prime minister in a stronger position regionally. If failure is foretold, however, Erdogan may be the biggest loser. The regional zeitgeist favours the Kurds: Erdogan has been given a chance to make them his friends, not his enemies. |
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