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| Politicians should beware public opinion | |
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| Sometimes you have to sympathise with politicians. This was "the decision that led inexorably to the disaster of genetically engineered babies", declared Human Genetics Alert last week. They were responding to the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority which, following public consultation, backed three-person IVF – adding a third person's DNA to two others' to produce healthy babies. Now ministers will have to decide who to listen to. | Sometimes you have to sympathise with politicians. This was "the decision that led inexorably to the disaster of genetically engineered babies", declared Human Genetics Alert last week. They were responding to the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority which, following public consultation, backed three-person IVF – adding a third person's DNA to two others' to produce healthy babies. Now ministers will have to decide who to listen to. |
| Abraham Lincoln said "Public opinion is everything": he felt his role as leader of the US meant finding out what his electorate wanted and, within reason, giving it to them. He went out to visit Americans on horseback to take what he called his "public opinion baths". But very often, politicians, as in the case of revolutionary new medical treatments, will be ahead or behind public opinion, often for good reason. They love to be able to say public opinion is on their side, but will also conveniently ignore it. | Abraham Lincoln said "Public opinion is everything": he felt his role as leader of the US meant finding out what his electorate wanted and, within reason, giving it to them. He went out to visit Americans on horseback to take what he called his "public opinion baths". But very often, politicians, as in the case of revolutionary new medical treatments, will be ahead or behind public opinion, often for good reason. They love to be able to say public opinion is on their side, but will also conveniently ignore it. |
| And so they should – though not always as crassly as Tony Benn did. Arguing against Britain's participation in the Falklands war, he brandished a handful of letters that supported him, asserting in the House of Commons in 1982: "Public opinion is swinging massively against the war!" The following day the Economist published our poll showing that 83% of the British people were in favour of sending the taskforce to take back the islands. | And so they should – though not always as crassly as Tony Benn did. Arguing against Britain's participation in the Falklands war, he brandished a handful of letters that supported him, asserting in the House of Commons in 1982: "Public opinion is swinging massively against the war!" The following day the Economist published our poll showing that 83% of the British people were in favour of sending the taskforce to take back the islands. |
| Speaking in 1996 another politician, Roy Hattersley, described public opinion as "a major disincentive to ideological politics. There has never been a time in our history when it was more difficult for a politician to say 'I will lead rather than follow'." He went on to say, "If the Liberal party of 1885 had employed Mori, Gladstone would have faced a real test of courage and conscience." Many politicians still dismiss public opinion as mercurial or irrelevant or both. Former British foreign secretary Douglas Hurd wrote in 1993 that "if we had followed the polls, we would have been in and out of the EU several times in the last 20 years. On matters of principle, like the monarchy and membership of the European Community, the job of the politician is to persuade, not automatically to follow." | Speaking in 1996 another politician, Roy Hattersley, described public opinion as "a major disincentive to ideological politics. There has never been a time in our history when it was more difficult for a politician to say 'I will lead rather than follow'." He went on to say, "If the Liberal party of 1885 had employed Mori, Gladstone would have faced a real test of courage and conscience." Many politicians still dismiss public opinion as mercurial or irrelevant or both. Former British foreign secretary Douglas Hurd wrote in 1993 that "if we had followed the polls, we would have been in and out of the EU several times in the last 20 years. On matters of principle, like the monarchy and membership of the European Community, the job of the politician is to persuade, not automatically to follow." |
| I completely agree with him. Politicians have routinely ignored early shifts in attitudes towards issues such as homosexuality, or medical developments such as advanced forms of IVF. They are acutely aware, via their postbags and constituents, of small but vocal pressure groups, or their own constituency party officials (who are often older and more conservative than the public as a whole). And then there's the role of the press in shaping what the public as a whole might find acceptable. For good reasons, as well as political ones, public opinion may be ignored by elected representatives. | I completely agree with him. Politicians have routinely ignored early shifts in attitudes towards issues such as homosexuality, or medical developments such as advanced forms of IVF. They are acutely aware, via their postbags and constituents, of small but vocal pressure groups, or their own constituency party officials (who are often older and more conservative than the public as a whole). And then there's the role of the press in shaping what the public as a whole might find acceptable. For good reasons, as well as political ones, public opinion may be ignored by elected representatives. |
| The public can be wrong. There are many areas where public understanding of an issue is well out of line with the facts. For example, we find that the public believes at least a quarter of the UK population was not born here – the actual figure is much lower. People massively overestimate the threat paedophiles pose to their children compared to bad drivers. And as Tony Blair remarked, when politicians listen to the public, they often find that they don't speak with one voice. | The public can be wrong. There are many areas where public understanding of an issue is well out of line with the facts. For example, we find that the public believes at least a quarter of the UK population was not born here – the actual figure is much lower. People massively overestimate the threat paedophiles pose to their children compared to bad drivers. And as Tony Blair remarked, when politicians listen to the public, they often find that they don't speak with one voice. |
| This is partly because there are different shades of opinion. There are the public's values, which change only slowly like deep ocean currents, for example on gay marriage; their attitudes, which might shift more quickly, like a tide; and their opinions, which are like waves and froth on the surface of the sea. Knowing whether what the public are expressing is a value or an opinion is vital. | This is partly because there are different shades of opinion. There are the public's values, which change only slowly like deep ocean currents, for example on gay marriage; their attitudes, which might shift more quickly, like a tide; and their opinions, which are like waves and froth on the surface of the sea. Knowing whether what the public are expressing is a value or an opinion is vital. |
| Some of our recent research has highlighted the fact that some of the big shifts in public opinion, in favour of more tolerant attitudes towards gay people, or more intolerant attitudes towards the poor, are not because all the public are shifting, but because different age groups in Britain hold very different views. Year by year they replace each other – the pre-1945 generation's views are very different to the Boomers' or Millennials'. | Some of our recent research has highlighted the fact that some of the big shifts in public opinion, in favour of more tolerant attitudes towards gay people, or more intolerant attitudes towards the poor, are not because all the public are shifting, but because different age groups in Britain hold very different views. Year by year they replace each other – the pre-1945 generation's views are very different to the Boomers' or Millennials'. |
| So the fact that politicians will never fully represent public opinion is not a problem. They often fib and say that the only poll that matters is the one on election day, while commissioning surveys when they want to find something out; but the job of the politician is as much to lead as to reflect public opinion. Ultimately that's what we choose them for – only 35% of the public favour replacing elected politicians with experts in making decisions – despite only 18% saying they trust them. I am happy to leave it to the House of Commons, odd though they can be, to make the final decisions. | So the fact that politicians will never fully represent public opinion is not a problem. They often fib and say that the only poll that matters is the one on election day, while commissioning surveys when they want to find something out; but the job of the politician is as much to lead as to reflect public opinion. Ultimately that's what we choose them for – only 35% of the public favour replacing elected politicians with experts in making decisions – despite only 18% saying they trust them. I am happy to leave it to the House of Commons, odd though they can be, to make the final decisions. |