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Syria: it only gets worse Syria: it only gets worse
(6 months later)
Two years after an Arab spring uprising that saw hundreds of thousands of unarmed Syrians filling the streets of provincial cities, Bashar al-Assad has got the conflict that he wanted. Though his regime had no answer to mass demonstrations, it is well adapted to fighting a violent civil war. Its armed forces are intact and have plenty of force in reserve, as the recent Scud missile strikes against civilian targets show. With no easy outcome in sight, the current death toll of 70,000 may look like a light one in a year's time.Two years after an Arab spring uprising that saw hundreds of thousands of unarmed Syrians filling the streets of provincial cities, Bashar al-Assad has got the conflict that he wanted. Though his regime had no answer to mass demonstrations, it is well adapted to fighting a violent civil war. Its armed forces are intact and have plenty of force in reserve, as the recent Scud missile strikes against civilian targets show. With no easy outcome in sight, the current death toll of 70,000 may look like a light one in a year's time.
The Free Syrian Army (FSA), whose founder Riad al-Asaad was badly injured by a bomb planted in his car on Monday, is said to be preparing a final assault on Damascus and is trying to cut off exit routes to the coast. Commanders say it would be all over in a month if they had the right weapons. But informed analysts disagree. They point out that if Assad lost the capital he would shift his heavy weaponry up into the mountains above Damascus, where he is impregnable, and rain down one barrage after another. Homs and Hama are meanwhile back in regime hands. Assad is scarcely behaving like a man who has run out of options.The Free Syrian Army (FSA), whose founder Riad al-Asaad was badly injured by a bomb planted in his car on Monday, is said to be preparing a final assault on Damascus and is trying to cut off exit routes to the coast. Commanders say it would be all over in a month if they had the right weapons. But informed analysts disagree. They point out that if Assad lost the capital he would shift his heavy weaponry up into the mountains above Damascus, where he is impregnable, and rain down one barrage after another. Homs and Hama are meanwhile back in regime hands. Assad is scarcely behaving like a man who has run out of options.
While Russia and Iran have been steadfast in their support for Assad, the policy of the pro-rebel backers is less committed. The British and French governments are for arming the rebels but American and British public opinion is deeply sceptical. The US claims it is providing non-lethal aid only but, as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has documented, conservative estimates are that at least 3,500 tonnes of military equipment, much of it Croatian, have been shipped from the Balkans. Covertly, the CIA may be acting as the rebels' quartermaster. The FSA says not enough arms and ammunition are coming through and argue that this is due to US indecision, now that groups such as Jabhat al-Nusrah, which the state department has declared a foreign terrorist organisation, have become important players on the ground.While Russia and Iran have been steadfast in their support for Assad, the policy of the pro-rebel backers is less committed. The British and French governments are for arming the rebels but American and British public opinion is deeply sceptical. The US claims it is providing non-lethal aid only but, as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has documented, conservative estimates are that at least 3,500 tonnes of military equipment, much of it Croatian, have been shipped from the Balkans. Covertly, the CIA may be acting as the rebels' quartermaster. The FSA says not enough arms and ammunition are coming through and argue that this is due to US indecision, now that groups such as Jabhat al-Nusrah, which the state department has declared a foreign terrorist organisation, have become important players on the ground.
Meanwhile the political opposition is in crisis mode. The coalition formed last year is split, with the resignation of its leader, Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib. Now it is back to square one in trying to unite its disparate groups. While sources in the Syrian National Council (which preceded the coalition and formed the major part of it) reject the idea that Syria could split up if the war continues, they do not discount the possibility that a post-conflict settlement could be sectarian-based. For the opposition, direct talks with the regime are out of the question, without a prior guarantee that Assad goes. But as blood continues to spill in such quantities, some may conclude that peace talks with Assad in place are the least worst option. The truth right now is that there are no good options in Syria.Meanwhile the political opposition is in crisis mode. The coalition formed last year is split, with the resignation of its leader, Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib. Now it is back to square one in trying to unite its disparate groups. While sources in the Syrian National Council (which preceded the coalition and formed the major part of it) reject the idea that Syria could split up if the war continues, they do not discount the possibility that a post-conflict settlement could be sectarian-based. For the opposition, direct talks with the regime are out of the question, without a prior guarantee that Assad goes. But as blood continues to spill in such quantities, some may conclude that peace talks with Assad in place are the least worst option. The truth right now is that there are no good options in Syria.
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