This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/sports/baseball/swing-and-a-mystery-why-strikeout-rates-are-soaring.html
The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| Why Strikeout Rates Are Soaring | |
| (about 20 hours later) | |
| As their strikeout totals piled up last summer, the pitchers for the Milwaukee Brewers hardly noticed. The team was struggling to reach .500, and the rotation had been in flux all year. It did not feel as if the pitching staff was closing in on the record for strikeouts in a season. | As their strikeout totals piled up last summer, the pitchers for the Milwaukee Brewers hardly noticed. The team was struggling to reach .500, and the rotation had been in flux all year. It did not feel as if the pitching staff was closing in on the record for strikeouts in a season. |
| “It honestly didn’t,” said starter Yovani Gallardo, the team leader in strikeouts. “All the guys went out there and pitched the way they pitch. You want to pitch to contact, but next thing you know, the hitter’s down, 0-2, and you just go to your put-away pitch.” | “It honestly didn’t,” said starter Yovani Gallardo, the team leader in strikeouts. “All the guys went out there and pitched the way they pitch. You want to pitch to contact, but next thing you know, the hitter’s down, 0-2, and you just go to your put-away pitch.” |
| The theory of pitching to contact works only if the hitter connects. And although the Brewers fell two strikeouts short of the single-season record, set by the 2003 Chicago Cubs, their performance seemed more ordinary than remarkable. In 2012, more than ever, the whiff became the norm across the game. | The theory of pitching to contact works only if the hitter connects. And although the Brewers fell two strikeouts short of the single-season record, set by the 2003 Chicago Cubs, their performance seemed more ordinary than remarkable. In 2012, more than ever, the whiff became the norm across the game. |
| Total strikeouts in the major leagues have risen in each of the last seven seasons, peaking — so far — at 36,426 last year to establish a record, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Eighteen teams struck out at least 1,200 times last season; through 2005, there had never been a season in which more than two teams topped that total. | Total strikeouts in the major leagues have risen in each of the last seven seasons, peaking — so far — at 36,426 last year to establish a record, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Eighteen teams struck out at least 1,200 times last season; through 2005, there had never been a season in which more than two teams topped that total. |
| Strikeout rates have been trending upward for most of the past century, but what has happened in recent years seems to indicate something more. Big swings often result in home runs, yet homers peaked in the majors in 2000, three years before steroid testing began. It could be that the generation of hitters raised in the glow of chemically fueled sluggers still tries to hit like its heroes. | Strikeout rates have been trending upward for most of the past century, but what has happened in recent years seems to indicate something more. Big swings often result in home runs, yet homers peaked in the majors in 2000, three years before steroid testing began. It could be that the generation of hitters raised in the glow of chemically fueled sluggers still tries to hit like its heroes. |
| “When I was playing high school baseball, we didn’t even have cable TV, and you’re kind of thinking about Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn,” said Josh Byrnes, the 42-year-old general manager of the San Diego Padres. “Some of the home runs of the last 15, 20 years, that’s kind of what you see if you’re just watching ‘SportsCenter.’ You’re not seeing a good at-bat. You’re seeing the guy who hits the 420-foot homer.” | “When I was playing high school baseball, we didn’t even have cable TV, and you’re kind of thinking about Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn,” said Josh Byrnes, the 42-year-old general manager of the San Diego Padres. “Some of the home runs of the last 15, 20 years, that’s kind of what you see if you’re just watching ‘SportsCenter.’ You’re not seeing a good at-bat. You’re seeing the guy who hits the 420-foot homer.” |
| Byrnes came to the Padres from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the National League West in 2007 but collapsed, three years later, under an avalanche of strikeouts. The 2010 Diamondbacks struck out more than any other team, before or since, and Byrnes’s successor as the general manager, Kevin Towers, has removed every player from that team who fanned at least 100 times. | Byrnes came to the Padres from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the National League West in 2007 but collapsed, three years later, under an avalanche of strikeouts. The 2010 Diamondbacks struck out more than any other team, before or since, and Byrnes’s successor as the general manager, Kevin Towers, has removed every player from that team who fanned at least 100 times. |
| “We were hoping maybe a couple times during a game we’d put crooked numbers up there,” Towers said, referring to multiple-run innings. “But it’s hard to sustain any type of rally.” | “We were hoping maybe a couple times during a game we’d put crooked numbers up there,” Towers said, referring to multiple-run innings. “But it’s hard to sustain any type of rally.” |
| True enough, although the American League record-holders for strikeouts in a season, the 2012 Oakland Athletics, are not complaining. Despite all of the swinging and missing last season, the A’s were 94-68 and captured the A.L. West title. | True enough, although the American League record-holders for strikeouts in a season, the 2012 Oakland Athletics, are not complaining. Despite all of the swinging and missing last season, the A’s were 94-68 and captured the A.L. West title. |
| To Chili Davis, who is entering his second season as Oakland’s hitting coach, the important thing was not how much his hitters struck out, but when. The team grounded into only 97 double plays (23 fewer than the average team) and hit 195 home runs (31 more than the average team). Those numbers matter most to the A’s, who will not ask their hitters to change. | To Chili Davis, who is entering his second season as Oakland’s hitting coach, the important thing was not how much his hitters struck out, but when. The team grounded into only 97 double plays (23 fewer than the average team) and hit 195 home runs (31 more than the average team). Those numbers matter most to the A’s, who will not ask their hitters to change. |
| “I don’t want to throw negatives at them,” Davis said. “Yes, we struck out, and you don’t want to strike out. But I don’t want my guys to just go up there and pepper the ball. They have the potential to drive the ball.” | “I don’t want to throw negatives at them,” Davis said. “Yes, we struck out, and you don’t want to strike out. But I don’t want my guys to just go up there and pepper the ball. They have the potential to drive the ball.” |
| The A’s finally met their match in the postseason, striking out 50 times in a five-game division series loss to the Detroit Tigers and their power pitching staff. Oakland managed only 30 hits and 3 home runs in the series. | The A’s finally met their match in the postseason, striking out 50 times in a five-game division series loss to the Detroit Tigers and their power pitching staff. Oakland managed only 30 hits and 3 home runs in the series. |
| Home runs rose by 8 percent from 2011 to 2012, but generally, power is down. After nine consecutive seasons of more than 5,000 homers — starting in 1998, when the majors expanded to 30 teams — hitters have reached that mark once in the last six years. That suggests that power is harder to find, so teams want anyone with power potential to swing big. | Home runs rose by 8 percent from 2011 to 2012, but generally, power is down. After nine consecutive seasons of more than 5,000 homers — starting in 1998, when the majors expanded to 30 teams — hitters have reached that mark once in the last six years. That suggests that power is harder to find, so teams want anyone with power potential to swing big. |
| “There’s still guys that are tough to strike out, but their game has to be like that in order to be in the big leagues,” Tigers catcher Alex Avila said. “Guys who can hit home runs and have any sort of power, teams are going to want them to hit home runs.” | “There’s still guys that are tough to strike out, but their game has to be like that in order to be in the big leagues,” Tigers catcher Alex Avila said. “Guys who can hit home runs and have any sort of power, teams are going to want them to hit home runs.” |
| Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski said there was far less stigma to striking out than there was when he started in baseball in 1978. That season, 21 players fanned at least 100 times. Last year, 111 did. The acceptance of strikeouts as a necessary byproduct of production is now ingrained. | Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski said there was far less stigma to striking out than there was when he started in baseball in 1978. That season, 21 players fanned at least 100 times. Last year, 111 did. The acceptance of strikeouts as a necessary byproduct of production is now ingrained. |
| Consider the Cleveland Indians, rivals of the Tigers in the American League Central. The Indians added four players this off-season who struck out at least 140 times in 2012: Drew Stubbs, Mark Reynolds, Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. (They also subtracted one, Shin-Soo Choo.) The Indians’ new manager, Terry Francona, said his team would have speed, as well as power, to go with the strikeouts. He dismissed concerns of an older generation. | Consider the Cleveland Indians, rivals of the Tigers in the American League Central. The Indians added four players this off-season who struck out at least 140 times in 2012: Drew Stubbs, Mark Reynolds, Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. (They also subtracted one, Shin-Soo Choo.) The Indians’ new manager, Terry Francona, said his team would have speed, as well as power, to go with the strikeouts. He dismissed concerns of an older generation. |
| “I laugh when I hear guys my dad’s age: ‘You guys got to shorten up and go to right,’ ” said Francona, whose father, Tito, played from 1956 to 1970. “Well, O.K., but you guys used to score 690 runs a year. We’re scoring 800. So somebody’s doing something different.’” | “I laugh when I hear guys my dad’s age: ‘You guys got to shorten up and go to right,’ ” said Francona, whose father, Tito, played from 1956 to 1970. “Well, O.K., but you guys used to score 690 runs a year. We’re scoring 800. So somebody’s doing something different.’” |
| Francona continued: “Bats are lighter; guys are stronger. There’s a lot more swing and miss, but there’s also more runs. The idea’s to score runs regardless of how you do it.” | Francona continued: “Bats are lighter; guys are stronger. There’s a lot more swing and miss, but there’s also more runs. The idea’s to score runs regardless of how you do it.” |
| One of Francona’s players, Jason Giambi, is the oldest nonpitcher in the majors and a former league leader in strikeouts. Giambi, 42, said the rising strikeout rate was caused by better pitching. | One of Francona’s players, Jason Giambi, is the oldest nonpitcher in the majors and a former league leader in strikeouts. Giambi, 42, said the rising strikeout rate was caused by better pitching. |
| Gone, Giambi said, are the days when hitters knew they could feast off slop-throwing middle relievers and fifth starters. To Giambi, the worst pitchers on a staff are now simply wild; their stuff can still be overpowering. | Gone, Giambi said, are the days when hitters knew they could feast off slop-throwing middle relievers and fifth starters. To Giambi, the worst pitchers on a staff are now simply wild; their stuff can still be overpowering. |
| “There’s this influx of unbelievable arms,” said Giambi, who spent most of the last four seasons with Colorado. “I was telling guys in here, the N.L. West is a joke. Every guy on the mound is filthy. Every guy out of the bullpen throws 98.” | “There’s this influx of unbelievable arms,” said Giambi, who spent most of the last four seasons with Colorado. “I was telling guys in here, the N.L. West is a joke. Every guy on the mound is filthy. Every guy out of the bullpen throws 98.” |
| That is an exaggeration, but hitters seem to believe it, and often point to the ever-increasing specialization of bullpen roles as a reason for all the strikeouts. Seattle General Manager Jack Zduriencik said teams were more apt now to turn a struggling starter into a reliever to see if his velocity would spike; he cited the Mariners’ Oliver Perez and Baltimore’s Tommy Hunter as successful examples. | That is an exaggeration, but hitters seem to believe it, and often point to the ever-increasing specialization of bullpen roles as a reason for all the strikeouts. Seattle General Manager Jack Zduriencik said teams were more apt now to turn a struggling starter into a reliever to see if his velocity would spike; he cited the Mariners’ Oliver Perez and Baltimore’s Tommy Hunter as successful examples. |
| But specialization often starts well before the majors. Prospects are often groomed as relievers, Zduriencik said, adding that scouts rarely see amateurs throw seven innings twice a week anymore. The emphasis on strict pitch counts as early as Little League may well be responsible for modern pitchers’ lack of durability, but it also might make them more likely to maintain high velocity. | But specialization often starts well before the majors. Prospects are often groomed as relievers, Zduriencik said, adding that scouts rarely see amateurs throw seven innings twice a week anymore. The emphasis on strict pitch counts as early as Little League may well be responsible for modern pitchers’ lack of durability, but it also might make them more likely to maintain high velocity. |
| The Atlanta Braves’ closer, Craig Kimbrel, who fanned more than half the batters he faced last season, said he wanted to be a starter when he entered professional baseball. The Braves saw him as a future closer, and soon enough, Kimbrel knew why. His stuff was enhanced with the smaller workloads, and his body felt better. | The Atlanta Braves’ closer, Craig Kimbrel, who fanned more than half the batters he faced last season, said he wanted to be a starter when he entered professional baseball. The Braves saw him as a future closer, and soon enough, Kimbrel knew why. His stuff was enhanced with the smaller workloads, and his body felt better. |
| “I like going out there pitching and not have my arm be killing me the next day,” Kimbrel said. “I thought, I can get used to this.” | “I like going out there pitching and not have my arm be killing me the next day,” Kimbrel said. “I thought, I can get used to this.” |
| Andrew Friedman, the Tampa Bay Rays’ general manager, has found plenty of veteran, bargain relievers with high strikeout rates, while developing a power rotation through the farm system. (Last year’s Tampa Bay staff recorded the fourth-most strikeouts in history.) But Friedman brushed off the idea that pitchers were throwing harder today. | Andrew Friedman, the Tampa Bay Rays’ general manager, has found plenty of veteran, bargain relievers with high strikeout rates, while developing a power rotation through the farm system. (Last year’s Tampa Bay staff recorded the fourth-most strikeouts in history.) But Friedman brushed off the idea that pitchers were throwing harder today. |
| The era before steroid testing, Friedman said, was marked not just by inflated home run totals but also by mysterious upticks in velocity from formerly fringe-level pitchers. He called it ridiculous to think that drug testing had curtailed home runs but not high-90s fastballs, and offered a different explanation for the strikeout increase. | The era before steroid testing, Friedman said, was marked not just by inflated home run totals but also by mysterious upticks in velocity from formerly fringe-level pitchers. He called it ridiculous to think that drug testing had curtailed home runs but not high-90s fastballs, and offered a different explanation for the strikeout increase. |
| “I think with all the new information that teams have access to, it directly benefits pitchers,” Friedman said. “They hold the ball in their hand and control the action, and there’s a lot more actionable things you can derive from video and data on how to get out hitters that don’t necessarily work the other way, in that position players are reacting and pitchers can mix things up.” | “I think with all the new information that teams have access to, it directly benefits pitchers,” Friedman said. “They hold the ball in their hand and control the action, and there’s a lot more actionable things you can derive from video and data on how to get out hitters that don’t necessarily work the other way, in that position players are reacting and pitchers can mix things up.” |
| Hitters, Friedman acknowledged, also have more detailed reports on pitchers’ tendencies. But if a hitter struggles with elevated fastballs, for example, then all a pitcher has to do is execute. The hitter, after all, cannot dictate what pitch is coming. | Hitters, Friedman acknowledged, also have more detailed reports on pitchers’ tendencies. But if a hitter struggles with elevated fastballs, for example, then all a pitcher has to do is execute. The hitter, after all, cannot dictate what pitch is coming. |
| Naturally, the sophistication of major league pitchers can be jarring to young hitters, many of whom arrive without enough time in the minors to hone their pitch-recognition skills. Houston Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow, who will field an extremely young team this year, said plate discipline was tricky to teach. | Naturally, the sophistication of major league pitchers can be jarring to young hitters, many of whom arrive without enough time in the minors to hone their pitch-recognition skills. Houston Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow, who will field an extremely young team this year, said plate discipline was tricky to teach. |
| “When a player in A ball looks at strike three and has to go back to the dugout, it’s not a good feeling,” Luhnow said. “But it’s possible that was the right decision to make because it’s a pitch that maybe 50 percent of the time would have been called a ball and he’d have been walked, and if he had made contact, there’s a high probability it would have been a dribbler he wouldn’t have done anything with. | “When a player in A ball looks at strike three and has to go back to the dugout, it’s not a good feeling,” Luhnow said. “But it’s possible that was the right decision to make because it’s a pitch that maybe 50 percent of the time would have been called a ball and he’d have been walked, and if he had made contact, there’s a high probability it would have been a dribbler he wouldn’t have done anything with. |
| “Aggressiveness is rewarded in our game, and I think that’s good, and there’s certain areas of our game where that’s really important. But it’s definitely a conundrum for coaches and players to figure out how to find that optimal balance.” | “Aggressiveness is rewarded in our game, and I think that’s good, and there’s certain areas of our game where that’s really important. But it’s definitely a conundrum for coaches and players to figure out how to find that optimal balance.” |
| Plate discipline is harder for hitters to apply against pitchers who consistently pound the strike zone. Increasingly, pitchers are doing that better. | Plate discipline is harder for hitters to apply against pitchers who consistently pound the strike zone. Increasingly, pitchers are doing that better. |
| Walk totals decreased in the majors for the third year in a row in 2012, dipping below 15,000 for the first time in a nonstrike season since 1992, when there were only 26 teams. Hitters, it seems, are simply not as feared as they were before testing for performance-enhancing drugs began. | Walk totals decreased in the majors for the third year in a row in 2012, dipping below 15,000 for the first time in a nonstrike season since 1992, when there were only 26 teams. Hitters, it seems, are simply not as feared as they were before testing for performance-enhancing drugs began. |
| “Not that many people are walking — you want to know why?” said Ruben Amaro Jr., the general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies. “Because they’re taught to throw the ball over the plate. And now, whether it’s P.E.D.’s or whatever the case may be, they may not be as concerned about using the middle of the plate as they have in the past because they know they’re not going to bang it off the wall every time. | “Not that many people are walking — you want to know why?” said Ruben Amaro Jr., the general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies. “Because they’re taught to throw the ball over the plate. And now, whether it’s P.E.D.’s or whatever the case may be, they may not be as concerned about using the middle of the plate as they have in the past because they know they’re not going to bang it off the wall every time. |
| “So walks are great, but if a guy’s throwing it down the middle, who wants to walk? Hit that.” | “So walks are great, but if a guy’s throwing it down the middle, who wants to walk? Hit that.” |
| For the modern hitter, that is easier said than done. | For the modern hitter, that is easier said than done. |