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A French lesson for Ed Miliband: don't enter office without a proper plan A French lesson for Ed Miliband: don't enter office without a proper plan
(6 months later)
This is not going to be another Cain and Abel commentary about the Milibands. Which will probably be a mighty relief to both you and them. But I will begin by touching on them briefly. It was not only over which Miliband should be leading the Labour party that they disagreed. A more subtle and never explicitly vocalised difference, which is illustrative of an unresolved debate about where the Labour party should be orientated, concerned François Hollande.This is not going to be another Cain and Abel commentary about the Milibands. Which will probably be a mighty relief to both you and them. But I will begin by touching on them briefly. It was not only over which Miliband should be leading the Labour party that they disagreed. A more subtle and never explicitly vocalised difference, which is illustrative of an unresolved debate about where the Labour party should be orientated, concerned François Hollande.
The socialist's election as president of France just under a year ago enthused a lot of the Labour party. For Ed, especially, it was an inspiration. The Frenchman had beaten off other contenders who were initially more fancied to become his party's candidate. Rather like Ed had done when he beat both his brother and Ed Balls to the leadership of the Labour party. The Frenchman had rejected the idea that the only way to be a successful progressive in this era is to model your politics along the lines of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton. He had, instead, taken his party back to a more retro type of squeeze-the-rich socialism and repudiated New Labour-style politics. Rather like Ed tends to do. Despite an image as an uncharismatic pointy head, the Frenchman had then gone on to take power by evicting a showboating conservative. Rather like Ed hopes to do. He also won big. The parliamentary elections that followed the presidential one handed him control of both houses. Ed hailed it as a new dawn for socialism (I paraphrase, but not unfairly), which would set an example for Europe and break the grip of austerity politics. Very soon after his hero moved into the Élysée Palace, Ed made a pilgrimage to Paris, where he was greeted with the warmth and ceremony that is usually bestowed only on heads of government.The socialist's election as president of France just under a year ago enthused a lot of the Labour party. For Ed, especially, it was an inspiration. The Frenchman had beaten off other contenders who were initially more fancied to become his party's candidate. Rather like Ed had done when he beat both his brother and Ed Balls to the leadership of the Labour party. The Frenchman had rejected the idea that the only way to be a successful progressive in this era is to model your politics along the lines of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton. He had, instead, taken his party back to a more retro type of squeeze-the-rich socialism and repudiated New Labour-style politics. Rather like Ed tends to do. Despite an image as an uncharismatic pointy head, the Frenchman had then gone on to take power by evicting a showboating conservative. Rather like Ed hopes to do. He also won big. The parliamentary elections that followed the presidential one handed him control of both houses. Ed hailed it as a new dawn for socialism (I paraphrase, but not unfairly), which would set an example for Europe and break the grip of austerity politics. Very soon after his hero moved into the Élysée Palace, Ed made a pilgrimage to Paris, where he was greeted with the warmth and ceremony that is usually bestowed only on heads of government.
In contrast to the younger Miliband's eagerness to associate himself with Hollande-style socialism, the elder Miliband was leery of it. So were most of the more New Labourish people this side of the channel. Though he largely kept this to himself, David believed that the Frenchman was leading his party in a direction which was potentially disastrous. He privately predicted that the wheels would start coming off Monsieur Hollande once he had to start making some tough choices.In contrast to the younger Miliband's eagerness to associate himself with Hollande-style socialism, the elder Miliband was leery of it. So were most of the more New Labourish people this side of the channel. Though he largely kept this to himself, David believed that the Frenchman was leading his party in a direction which was potentially disastrous. He privately predicted that the wheels would start coming off Monsieur Hollande once he had to start making some tough choices.
On this one, Ed's admiration for the French socialist now looks badly mistaken and David's concerns have been confirmed. The only respect in which the Hollande-sceptics have been proved wrong is that calamity and unpopularity have struck the French socialists even faster than the doubters anticipated.On this one, Ed's admiration for the French socialist now looks badly mistaken and David's concerns have been confirmed. The only respect in which the Hollande-sceptics have been proved wrong is that calamity and unpopularity have struck the French socialists even faster than the doubters anticipated.
It is just 10 months since Monsieur Hollande moved into the Élysée and in that short time almost anything that could go wrong has gone wrong. His personal life has received more lurid publicity than that which swirled about his predecessor. His budget minister, one of the heavyweight figures of his government, has just resigned after becoming embroiled in a tax fraud investigation. The French economy is teetering on the edge of another recession. Unemployment is now at a 16-year high and public pessimism about France's economic prospects close to a record low. The initial support for the military intervention in Mali has faded fast.It is just 10 months since Monsieur Hollande moved into the Élysée and in that short time almost anything that could go wrong has gone wrong. His personal life has received more lurid publicity than that which swirled about his predecessor. His budget minister, one of the heavyweight figures of his government, has just resigned after becoming embroiled in a tax fraud investigation. The French economy is teetering on the edge of another recession. Unemployment is now at a 16-year high and public pessimism about France's economic prospects close to a record low. The initial support for the military intervention in Mali has faded fast.
It is a slim consolation for the French socialists that their conservative counterparts are also in a mess. The rightwing UMP party has been rancorously divided by the battle to succeed Nicolas Sarkozy. This fuelled talk of a comeback by him, only for the former president to come under judicial investigation for alleged illegal campaign financing. With the conservatives riven and the government disliked, the gainers are the extremes, the communist Left Front and the far-right Front National of Marine Le Pen. In a recent byelection in Oise, north of Paris, Mr Hollande's candidate was pushed out of the top two by the Front National, which then came within a whisker of taking the seat.It is a slim consolation for the French socialists that their conservative counterparts are also in a mess. The rightwing UMP party has been rancorously divided by the battle to succeed Nicolas Sarkozy. This fuelled talk of a comeback by him, only for the former president to come under judicial investigation for alleged illegal campaign financing. With the conservatives riven and the government disliked, the gainers are the extremes, the communist Left Front and the far-right Front National of Marine Le Pen. In a recent byelection in Oise, north of Paris, Mr Hollande's candidate was pushed out of the top two by the Front National, which then came within a whisker of taking the seat.
Monsieur Hollande breaks new records of the wrong kind with each passing week. First, he broke a speed record by becoming more unpopular more quickly than any previous French president. According to polling conducted last week, he has now also broken the depth record by becoming the most unpopular French president in 30 years.Monsieur Hollande breaks new records of the wrong kind with each passing week. First, he broke a speed record by becoming more unpopular more quickly than any previous French president. According to polling conducted last week, he has now also broken the depth record by becoming the most unpopular French president in 30 years.
Some of his travails are rather particular to his personality, his country and his party, and it would not be sensible to search for too much read-across to this side of the Channel. For instance, British politicians don't tend to become the subject of judicial investigations with such regularity as their French counterparts. But his fundamental political problems are directly relevant to where the Labour party is currently positioned and flag up some very important warnings to its leader. One source of his troubles is how Mr Hollande got elected in the first place. He was handed the keys to the Élysée not because the French were terribly enthused by him, more because they were thoroughly fed up with Mr Sarkozy. In a similar fashion, Labour's current opinion poll lead of around 10 points seems a bit unearned – that is certainly the feeling among some in the shadow cabinet – because it seems to be mostly indicative of disenchantment with the coalition rather than surging enthusiasm for Labour. That leaves the lead potentially vulnerable to an upturn in the economy or an improved performance by the government. It is also possible to envisage a scenario in which Labour retains enough of an advantage to secure power at the next election in much the same way as the French socialists did: not on their own merits, but largely because of disenchantment with the incumbents. As Mr Hollande has discovered, that leaves you with nothing solid to fall back on when you stop being the critic and start having to make the tough decisions yourself.Some of his travails are rather particular to his personality, his country and his party, and it would not be sensible to search for too much read-across to this side of the Channel. For instance, British politicians don't tend to become the subject of judicial investigations with such regularity as their French counterparts. But his fundamental political problems are directly relevant to where the Labour party is currently positioned and flag up some very important warnings to its leader. One source of his troubles is how Mr Hollande got elected in the first place. He was handed the keys to the Élysée not because the French were terribly enthused by him, more because they were thoroughly fed up with Mr Sarkozy. In a similar fashion, Labour's current opinion poll lead of around 10 points seems a bit unearned – that is certainly the feeling among some in the shadow cabinet – because it seems to be mostly indicative of disenchantment with the coalition rather than surging enthusiasm for Labour. That leaves the lead potentially vulnerable to an upturn in the economy or an improved performance by the government. It is also possible to envisage a scenario in which Labour retains enough of an advantage to secure power at the next election in much the same way as the French socialists did: not on their own merits, but largely because of disenchantment with the incumbents. As Mr Hollande has discovered, that leaves you with nothing solid to fall back on when you stop being the critic and start having to make the tough decisions yourself.
Another of his problems is that he rather pretended to the French that he and they wouldn't have to make any difficult choices. He gave the impression that the mere act of electing him would make things better. While his prospectus did acknowledge that the deficit would have to be tackled, he campaigned on a theme of ending austerity. He was generally mute about the hard spending choices implied by his promise to sort out France's finances. They are, incidentally, not as bad as ours. He spoke volubly about raiding the rich and bashing the banks, implying to the squeezed middle of France – what you might call le moyen pressuré – that they would be unscathed.Another of his problems is that he rather pretended to the French that he and they wouldn't have to make any difficult choices. He gave the impression that the mere act of electing him would make things better. While his prospectus did acknowledge that the deficit would have to be tackled, he campaigned on a theme of ending austerity. He was generally mute about the hard spending choices implied by his promise to sort out France's finances. They are, incidentally, not as bad as ours. He spoke volubly about raiding the rich and bashing the banks, implying to the squeezed middle of France – what you might call le moyen pressuré – that they would be unscathed.
It is his 75% tax on individuals who earn over €1 million that has attracted a lot of attention here, especially because some of France's wealthy, such as Gérard Depardieu, have noisily fled into tax exile. Monsieur Hollande made the tax a centrepiece of this year's budget, but it was largely totemic. Even he never pretended that it would raise all that much money. France's highest court has anyway struck it down as anti-constitutional, forcing him to go away and come up with a second version. It is not the tax on millionaires that has got him into so much trouble with French voters. It is all the other tax increases that are hitting the not so well-off.It is his 75% tax on individuals who earn over €1 million that has attracted a lot of attention here, especially because some of France's wealthy, such as Gérard Depardieu, have noisily fled into tax exile. Monsieur Hollande made the tax a centrepiece of this year's budget, but it was largely totemic. Even he never pretended that it would raise all that much money. France's highest court has anyway struck it down as anti-constitutional, forcing him to go away and come up with a second version. It is not the tax on millionaires that has got him into so much trouble with French voters. It is all the other tax increases that are hitting the not so well-off.
The moral for Labour is about the perils of not being upfront before you get to office. Labour, too, sometimes gives the impression that a tighter squeeze on the rich is all that is required to deal with the deficit. Clobber the banks a bit harder and restore the 50p rate on high earners and that will do the trick. I confess to having lost count of how many times Labour has said it can finance this pledge or that by taxing bankers' bonuses. The lesson from France is that this might get you through a campaign. It might even win you an election. But pretending that you won't have to make tough decisions affecting average voters will get you into terrible trouble once you are in power.The moral for Labour is about the perils of not being upfront before you get to office. Labour, too, sometimes gives the impression that a tighter squeeze on the rich is all that is required to deal with the deficit. Clobber the banks a bit harder and restore the 50p rate on high earners and that will do the trick. I confess to having lost count of how many times Labour has said it can finance this pledge or that by taxing bankers' bonuses. The lesson from France is that this might get you through a campaign. It might even win you an election. But pretending that you won't have to make tough decisions affecting average voters will get you into terrible trouble once you are in power.
The most important French lesson for Labour is that things will very quickly unravel if you don't come to power with a solid project for government which has been sold to the voters in advance. I would say there are at least four key aspects to such a project in an age of austerity. One: a plausible plan for how you are going to nurture future prosperity. Two: a clear idea of what you will prioritise for investment. Three: worked-out reforms for maximising the performance of public services. Four: acknowledging in a way which is at least reasonably candid where you will have to cut.The most important French lesson for Labour is that things will very quickly unravel if you don't come to power with a solid project for government which has been sold to the voters in advance. I would say there are at least four key aspects to such a project in an age of austerity. One: a plausible plan for how you are going to nurture future prosperity. Two: a clear idea of what you will prioritise for investment. Three: worked-out reforms for maximising the performance of public services. Four: acknowledging in a way which is at least reasonably candid where you will have to cut.
Mr Hollande, it turns out, did not really have anything much resembling a project for government. His administration seems absent of ideas about how to make France more competitive. His economic policy is muddled. His ministers have just been told to find an extra €5 billion in cuts next year and are talking about things such as means-testing family benefits. Because this was not spelled out by Mr Hollande before he took office, he cannot claim a mandate and his victory looks dishonest to an increasing number of voters. That has made him spectacularly unpopular left, right and centre, with disillusioned erstwhile supporters on the left the angriest of all and crying betrayal. Ed Miliband should contemplate the fate of Monsieur Hollande and beware.Mr Hollande, it turns out, did not really have anything much resembling a project for government. His administration seems absent of ideas about how to make France more competitive. His economic policy is muddled. His ministers have just been told to find an extra €5 billion in cuts next year and are talking about things such as means-testing family benefits. Because this was not spelled out by Mr Hollande before he took office, he cannot claim a mandate and his victory looks dishonest to an increasing number of voters. That has made him spectacularly unpopular left, right and centre, with disillusioned erstwhile supporters on the left the angriest of all and crying betrayal. Ed Miliband should contemplate the fate of Monsieur Hollande and beware.
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