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| South Korea Vows Military Reply if North Provokes It | |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| SEOUL, South Korea — President Park Geun-hye of South Korea ordered the country’s military on Monday to deliver a strong and immediate response to any North Korean provocation, the latest turn in a war of words that has become a test of resolve for the relatively unproven leaders in both the North and South. | SEOUL, South Korea — President Park Geun-hye of South Korea ordered the country’s military on Monday to deliver a strong and immediate response to any North Korean provocation, the latest turn in a war of words that has become a test of resolve for the relatively unproven leaders in both the North and South. |
| “I consider the current North Korean threats very serious,” Ms. Park told the South’s generals. “If the North attempts any provocation against our people and country, you must respond strongly at the first contact with them without any political consideration. | “I consider the current North Korean threats very serious,” Ms. Park told the South’s generals. “If the North attempts any provocation against our people and country, you must respond strongly at the first contact with them without any political consideration. |
| “As top commander of the military, I trust your judgment in the face of North Korea’s unexpected surprise provocation,” she added. | “As top commander of the military, I trust your judgment in the face of North Korea’s unexpected surprise provocation,” she added. |
| Since Kim Jong-un took power after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in late 2011, the North has taken a series of provocative steps and amplified threats against Washington and Seoul to much louder and more menacing levels. The North has launched a three-stage rocket, tested a nuclear device and threatened to hit major American cities with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles. And Mr. Kim has declared that the Korean Peninsula has reverted to a “state of war.” | Since Kim Jong-un took power after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in late 2011, the North has taken a series of provocative steps and amplified threats against Washington and Seoul to much louder and more menacing levels. The North has launched a three-stage rocket, tested a nuclear device and threatened to hit major American cities with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles. And Mr. Kim has declared that the Korean Peninsula has reverted to a “state of war.” |
| At the same time, there are signs that he is interested in turning his attention to the economy, including the promotion of an economic technocrat, Pak Pong-ju,to a key post. | At the same time, there are signs that he is interested in turning his attention to the economy, including the promotion of an economic technocrat, Pak Pong-ju,to a key post. |
| Ms. Park’s blunt comments stand in contrast to the usually dismissive tone that South Korean leaders take toward the North’s threats, and reflect the criticism aimed at her predecessor and fellow conservative, Lee Myung-bak, when the South was seen as not retaliating decisively after North Korea aimed an artillery barrage at a South Korean island in 2010, killing four people. | Ms. Park’s blunt comments stand in contrast to the usually dismissive tone that South Korean leaders take toward the North’s threats, and reflect the criticism aimed at her predecessor and fellow conservative, Lee Myung-bak, when the South was seen as not retaliating decisively after North Korea aimed an artillery barrage at a South Korean island in 2010, killing four people. |
| Analysts have been weighing whether the North’s intensifying threats — most judged to be hollow, given the limits of the North’s arsenal — simply continue the North’s longstanding practice of bolstering domestic support and trying to badger other nations into supplying aid. | Analysts have been weighing whether the North’s intensifying threats — most judged to be hollow, given the limits of the North’s arsenal — simply continue the North’s longstanding practice of bolstering domestic support and trying to badger other nations into supplying aid. |
| “Kim Jong-un certainly is more aggressive than his father, and behind his aggressiveness is a confidence following the North's successful launching of a long-range rocket and its nuclear test," said Cheong Seong-chang, senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, a private research institute in South Korea. "What is clear is that compared with his father, who had absolute control on power, the young leader will cling harder to nuclear weapons as a tool of consolidating his power.” | “Kim Jong-un certainly is more aggressive than his father, and behind his aggressiveness is a confidence following the North's successful launching of a long-range rocket and its nuclear test," said Cheong Seong-chang, senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, a private research institute in South Korea. "What is clear is that compared with his father, who had absolute control on power, the young leader will cling harder to nuclear weapons as a tool of consolidating his power.” |
| “By raising these nuclear threats, he is ensuring that his country has regained the military balance it had lost to prosperous South Korea before shifting his attention more to the economy,” Mr. Cheong said. “He is more calculating than all these threats make outsiders believe.” | “By raising these nuclear threats, he is ensuring that his country has regained the military balance it had lost to prosperous South Korea before shifting his attention more to the economy,” Mr. Cheong said. “He is more calculating than all these threats make outsiders believe.” |
| Mr. Kim’s decision to launch the rocket in December and detonate a nuclear device last month followed the North’s growing frustration, analysts said, that its strategy of using threats and provocations against Washington and Seoul seemed less effective in recent years. Instead, the allies spearheaded more United Nations sanctions. | Mr. Kim’s decision to launch the rocket in December and detonate a nuclear device last month followed the North’s growing frustration, analysts said, that its strategy of using threats and provocations against Washington and Seoul seemed less effective in recent years. Instead, the allies spearheaded more United Nations sanctions. |
| The sanctions coincided with the allies’ joint military drills, during which Washington demonstrated its political resolve to defend South Korea by taking unusual steps of publicizing the training missions of nuclear-capable B-52 and B-2 bombers as well as F-22 stealth fighter jets. | The sanctions coincided with the allies’ joint military drills, during which Washington demonstrated its political resolve to defend South Korea by taking unusual steps of publicizing the training missions of nuclear-capable B-52 and B-2 bombers as well as F-22 stealth fighter jets. |
| For her part, Ms. Park must stand up to the North’s growing nuclear threat while seeking to defuse tensions. Her election campaign last year focused on a promise not to be blackmailed by the North, a popular conservative stance in the last few years. Since the North’s 2010 attack on Yeonpyeong Island, the South has amended its military’s rules of engagement to allow front-line units to respond more quickly, not wasting precious minutes waiting for permission from Seoul. | For her part, Ms. Park must stand up to the North’s growing nuclear threat while seeking to defuse tensions. Her election campaign last year focused on a promise not to be blackmailed by the North, a popular conservative stance in the last few years. Since the North’s 2010 attack on Yeonpyeong Island, the South has amended its military’s rules of engagement to allow front-line units to respond more quickly, not wasting precious minutes waiting for permission from Seoul. |
| Under Ms. Park, the South’s military has declared that if provoked its retaliation would a “thousandfold, 10 thousandfold.” | Under Ms. Park, the South’s military has declared that if provoked its retaliation would a “thousandfold, 10 thousandfold.” |
| Amid fears that possible military skirmishes between the two Koreas could blow out of control, Washington last week concluded three years of negotiations with Seoul and signed an agreement to respond jointly to North Korean provocations. The move was designed to bolster deterrence against the North and to prevent unnecessary escalation. | Amid fears that possible military skirmishes between the two Koreas could blow out of control, Washington last week concluded three years of negotiations with Seoul and signed an agreement to respond jointly to North Korean provocations. The move was designed to bolster deterrence against the North and to prevent unnecessary escalation. |
| In the North, Pak Pong-ju, an economic technocrat, was made a full member of the Politburo on Sunday and was given more power on Monday when the rubber-stamp parliament, the Supreme People’s Assembly, made him premier, a post in charge of the economy. The best-known top military leaders under Mr. Kim were given lesser promotions. The two men — Hyon Yong-chol, the chief of the general staff of the Korean People’s Army, and Kim Kyok-sik, minister of the People’s Armed Forces — were made only alternative members of the Politburo. | In the North, Pak Pong-ju, an economic technocrat, was made a full member of the Politburo on Sunday and was given more power on Monday when the rubber-stamp parliament, the Supreme People’s Assembly, made him premier, a post in charge of the economy. The best-known top military leaders under Mr. Kim were given lesser promotions. The two men — Hyon Yong-chol, the chief of the general staff of the Korean People’s Army, and Kim Kyok-sik, minister of the People’s Armed Forces — were made only alternative members of the Politburo. |
| Adding to the sense that the leadership wants to address its economic troubles, it has not followed through on threats to close the industrial park in the town of Kaesong, which it operates jointly with the South. The complex is a source of much-needed hard currency. | Adding to the sense that the leadership wants to address its economic troubles, it has not followed through on threats to close the industrial park in the town of Kaesong, which it operates jointly with the South. The complex is a source of much-needed hard currency. |
| North Korea has been alternating between tentative experiments with reform and crackdowns on market activities. Mr. Pak served as premier from 2003 and 2007, pushing for some autonomy in factories and farms and easing state price controls on daily goods, as well as sharply increasing government spending on agricultural. But he was fired when the growth in market activities threatened the old guard. | North Korea has been alternating between tentative experiments with reform and crackdowns on market activities. Mr. Pak served as premier from 2003 and 2007, pushing for some autonomy in factories and farms and easing state price controls on daily goods, as well as sharply increasing government spending on agricultural. But he was fired when the growth in market activities threatened the old guard. |
| The North’s attempt to reinforce state control on the economy peaked in late 2009 when it replaced its bank notes with a new currency, shut down markets and ordered people to buy goods from state-run stores only. But those moves led to runaway inflation and sporadic protests. The leadership responded by executing Pak Nam-gi, its top finance official, and reinstating some market activities. | The North’s attempt to reinforce state control on the economy peaked in late 2009 when it replaced its bank notes with a new currency, shut down markets and ordered people to buy goods from state-run stores only. But those moves led to runaway inflation and sporadic protests. The leadership responded by executing Pak Nam-gi, its top finance official, and reinstating some market activities. |
| Pak Pong-ju returned as a key economic policy maker in 2010. He may be able to push his reforms more aggressively because he is now supported by Jang Song-thaek, Mr. Kim’s uncle, and his wife, Kim Kyong-hee, whose influence expanded under Mr. Kim, said Mr. Cheong, the Sejong analyst. | Pak Pong-ju returned as a key economic policy maker in 2010. He may be able to push his reforms more aggressively because he is now supported by Jang Song-thaek, Mr. Kim’s uncle, and his wife, Kim Kyong-hee, whose influence expanded under Mr. Kim, said Mr. Cheong, the Sejong analyst. |
| During the party meeting on Sunday and the parliamentary gathering on Monday “the key point was on the economy,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea specialist at Dongguk University in Seoul. “Behind all these nuclear threats is Kim Jong-un’s intention to cement North Korea’s status as a nuclear power so he can focus on the economy.” | During the party meeting on Sunday and the parliamentary gathering on Monday “the key point was on the economy,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea specialist at Dongguk University in Seoul. “Behind all these nuclear threats is Kim Jong-un’s intention to cement North Korea’s status as a nuclear power so he can focus on the economy.” |
| “Unlike his father, who liked to make decisions in secret, Kim Jong-un has been remarkably open,” Mr. Koh said, “calling various state and party meetings and having his decisions announced in their names. In a way, he is spreading responsibility for a possible failure of policy.” | “Unlike his father, who liked to make decisions in secret, Kim Jong-un has been remarkably open,” Mr. Koh said, “calling various state and party meetings and having his decisions announced in their names. In a way, he is spreading responsibility for a possible failure of policy.” |
| The central committee of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party announced a “new strategic line” on Sunday, saying that it was determined to rebuild its economy in the face of international sanctions while simultaneously expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal. It said a growing nuclear deterrent could allow it to limit military spending and put more resources into agriculture and light industries to improve people’s lives. | The central committee of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party announced a “new strategic line” on Sunday, saying that it was determined to rebuild its economy in the face of international sanctions while simultaneously expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal. It said a growing nuclear deterrent could allow it to limit military spending and put more resources into agriculture and light industries to improve people’s lives. |
| That stance defied American and South Korean officials, who have warned the North that if it does not give up nuclear weapons, it will face more sanctions and deeper isolation. | That stance defied American and South Korean officials, who have warned the North that if it does not give up nuclear weapons, it will face more sanctions and deeper isolation. |