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| Japan's central bank governor shows he can walk the walk as well as talk the talk | Japan's central bank governor shows he can walk the walk as well as talk the talk |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| The Bank of Japan means business. That was the clear message to be drawn from the debut of the bank's new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, brought in with the specific task of lifting the world's third biggest economy out of deflation. | The Bank of Japan means business. That was the clear message to be drawn from the debut of the bank's new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, brought in with the specific task of lifting the world's third biggest economy out of deflation. |
| Kuroda has hit the ground running. He has pledged that the BoJ will bring inflation up to 2% within two years – a far more specific target than the markets were expecting – and provided details about how he intends to go about it. | Kuroda has hit the ground running. He has pledged that the BoJ will bring inflation up to 2% within two years – a far more specific target than the markets were expecting – and provided details about how he intends to go about it. |
| Firstly, the new governor will massively increase Japan's asset purchase scheme to flood the economy with money. The BoJ's quantitative easing programme has been dwarfed in recent years by the more aggressive action taken by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Kuroda has now announced that he will increase the monetary base by 60 trillion yen to 70tn (£420bn-£490bn) a year – five times the rate of increase seen in 2012. | |
| Secondly, the BoJ will buy longer dated government bonds with an average maturity of three to seven years, but with bonds of up to 40 years eligible. The idea here is to show that the new government is in this for the long haul and will keep taking action to prevent the economy lapsing back into deflation. The interest rate on bonds moves inversely to their price, so when the BoJ buys long-dated bonds the price should go up and the interest rate on them should go down. That will mean lower long-term borrowing costs for households and companies. | |
| Financial markets were taken aback by all this. They were impressed by Kuroda's ability to walk the walk as well as talk the talk, and the immediate reaction was positive. Bond yields fell to record lows and the yen weakened on the foreign exchanges. A cheaper currency is one of the ways the BoJ hopes to raise inflation, because a falling yen will increase the cost of imports. | Financial markets were taken aback by all this. They were impressed by Kuroda's ability to walk the walk as well as talk the talk, and the immediate reaction was positive. Bond yields fell to record lows and the yen weakened on the foreign exchanges. A cheaper currency is one of the ways the BoJ hopes to raise inflation, because a falling yen will increase the cost of imports. |
| Even so, doubts were still being raised about whether the new strategy will work. Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank, said the experience of Britain in the early 1980s showed how hard it was to target inflation using the monetary base. Mark Williams, Asia expert for Capital Economics, said monetary conditions in Japanese bond yields were already extremely loose and the government would have to convince the public that deflation – which has become ingrained over the past five years – will really come to an end. | Even so, doubts were still being raised about whether the new strategy will work. Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank, said the experience of Britain in the early 1980s showed how hard it was to target inflation using the monetary base. Mark Williams, Asia expert for Capital Economics, said monetary conditions in Japanese bond yields were already extremely loose and the government would have to convince the public that deflation – which has become ingrained over the past five years – will really come to an end. |
| But both the obvious ways of doing this – a lower yen and higher consumption taxes – have their risks since they reduce the value of consumer spending power and could, by stifling economic growth, intensify deflationary pressure. | But both the obvious ways of doing this – a lower yen and higher consumption taxes – have their risks since they reduce the value of consumer spending power and could, by stifling economic growth, intensify deflationary pressure. |
| Two lost decades since 1990 mean that Japan's problems will not be solved by one meeting, but for now the BoJ will be given the benefit of the doubt. After all the advance billing, Kuroda could easily have fallen flat on his face. Instead, he jumped his first hurdle with something to spare. | Two lost decades since 1990 mean that Japan's problems will not be solved by one meeting, but for now the BoJ will be given the benefit of the doubt. After all the advance billing, Kuroda could easily have fallen flat on his face. Instead, he jumped his first hurdle with something to spare. |