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Bulgarian and Romanian immigrants – how much impact will they really have? Bulgarian and Romanian immigrants – how much impact will they really have?
(6 months later)
Over the past few months there has been considerable speculation in the media around the numbers of Bulgarians and Romanians that are likely to come to the UK when the transitional controls are lifted at the end of 2013. While the debate around numbers continues unabated, those who want a more useful discussion about the issue are focusing on what the impacts of any future migration from these countries are likely to be. One of the key issues – and the focus of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research's review published on Friday – is the potential impact on public services and, in particular, on housing, health, education and social security.Over the past few months there has been considerable speculation in the media around the numbers of Bulgarians and Romanians that are likely to come to the UK when the transitional controls are lifted at the end of 2013. While the debate around numbers continues unabated, those who want a more useful discussion about the issue are focusing on what the impacts of any future migration from these countries are likely to be. One of the key issues – and the focus of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research's review published on Friday – is the potential impact on public services and, in particular, on housing, health, education and social security.
The latter has been the focus of much government attention with David Cameron's recent pronouncements of a "crackdown" on migrants' eligibility to benefits. Clearly, such a move is an attempt to allay concerns regarding future immigration, not to mention fear of a swing in voter support towards Ukip. Yet the evidence we found in our review in no way justifies this rhetoric. Not only are eastern European migrants much less likely to claim benefits than other migrant groups, they are also considerably less likely to claim benefits than Britons. This should not come as a surprise given that economic migrants – which is what those from eastern Europe are – migrate to work and to improve their lives, not to claim benefits.The latter has been the focus of much government attention with David Cameron's recent pronouncements of a "crackdown" on migrants' eligibility to benefits. Clearly, such a move is an attempt to allay concerns regarding future immigration, not to mention fear of a swing in voter support towards Ukip. Yet the evidence we found in our review in no way justifies this rhetoric. Not only are eastern European migrants much less likely to claim benefits than other migrant groups, they are also considerably less likely to claim benefits than Britons. This should not come as a surprise given that economic migrants – which is what those from eastern Europe are – migrate to work and to improve their lives, not to claim benefits.
Housing is another area of substantial concern. Yet, contrary to popular belief, the majority of migrants find accommodation in the private rented sector and are not generally eligible for social housing. Even in cases where such eligibility exists, research has shown that migrants are much less likely to live in social housing: a recent study in this area has shown that eastern European migrants are 58% less likely to live in social housing than Britons.Housing is another area of substantial concern. Yet, contrary to popular belief, the majority of migrants find accommodation in the private rented sector and are not generally eligible for social housing. Even in cases where such eligibility exists, research has shown that migrants are much less likely to live in social housing: a recent study in this area has shown that eastern European migrants are 58% less likely to live in social housing than Britons.
While migration from Bulgaria and Romania may increase the demand for private rented accommodation, particularly at the lower end of the market, the nature of this impact will depend on a variety of factors including the existing housing supply and the buoyancy of the local housing market. For example, research has shown that eastern European migration has had a positive impact in some areas by stabilising demand for rental accommodation whereas in other areas such migration has led to higher rental prices. So the impact of migration is not clear-cut and can be positive or negative.While migration from Bulgaria and Romania may increase the demand for private rented accommodation, particularly at the lower end of the market, the nature of this impact will depend on a variety of factors including the existing housing supply and the buoyancy of the local housing market. For example, research has shown that eastern European migration has had a positive impact in some areas by stabilising demand for rental accommodation whereas in other areas such migration has led to higher rental prices. So the impact of migration is not clear-cut and can be positive or negative.
As for other services such as health and education, we found that future migration from Bulgaria and Romania is unlikely to have a significant impact, particularly in the short term. Indeed, NIESR research for the Migration Advisory Committee has shown that migrants as a whole impose less than proportionate costs on the health services. This is largely due to the fact that migrants, and in particular economic migrants, are generally young and healthy.As for other services such as health and education, we found that future migration from Bulgaria and Romania is unlikely to have a significant impact, particularly in the short term. Indeed, NIESR research for the Migration Advisory Committee has shown that migrants as a whole impose less than proportionate costs on the health services. This is largely due to the fact that migrants, and in particular economic migrants, are generally young and healthy.
The impact on education services will depend largely on migration patterns because, until now, most Bulgarian and Romanian migration has consisted of young individuals rather than families. Clearly, this may change over time if migrants decide to settle in the UK and, in the long term, this may potentially increase pressure on school places in those areas experiencing shortages. Evidence to date suggests that migrant children do not have a negative impact on school performance. A recent study of primary schools in London has shown that the presence of migrants has actually contributed to improved results in some cases. However, in the short term, language assistance will need to be provided for any new arrivals from the two countries.The impact on education services will depend largely on migration patterns because, until now, most Bulgarian and Romanian migration has consisted of young individuals rather than families. Clearly, this may change over time if migrants decide to settle in the UK and, in the long term, this may potentially increase pressure on school places in those areas experiencing shortages. Evidence to date suggests that migrant children do not have a negative impact on school performance. A recent study of primary schools in London has shown that the presence of migrants has actually contributed to improved results in some cases. However, in the short term, language assistance will need to be provided for any new arrivals from the two countries.
While the impact of temporary Bulgarian and Romanian migrants on public services is likely to be relatively light due to the fact that they are young, healthy and come here primarily to work, this may change should such migrants decide to settle since their take-up of services such as health and education may increase. However, even in such a scenario, we must not forget that migrants actually contribute more to the public purse through payment of taxes than they cost our public services. And that's not even taking into account the other contributions migrants make such as caring for our children, working in our health service and generally adding to the richness and diversity of our nation. So instead of simply debating how many people are likely to come, let's take a moment to consider what the impacts really are. Maybe they aren't as scary as some people might think.While the impact of temporary Bulgarian and Romanian migrants on public services is likely to be relatively light due to the fact that they are young, healthy and come here primarily to work, this may change should such migrants decide to settle since their take-up of services such as health and education may increase. However, even in such a scenario, we must not forget that migrants actually contribute more to the public purse through payment of taxes than they cost our public services. And that's not even taking into account the other contributions migrants make such as caring for our children, working in our health service and generally adding to the richness and diversity of our nation. So instead of simply debating how many people are likely to come, let's take a moment to consider what the impacts really are. Maybe they aren't as scary as some people might think.
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